Realization of Trans-Caspian Pipeline lacks supply and demand

The European Commission received a mandate for negotiations of construction of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP) with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan in September. The pipeline will be about 300 km long with a capacity of 20-30 billion cubic meters annually. It will unite the Turkmen and Azerbaijani sections of the Caspian Sea to transport gas to Europe.

European Commissioner for Energy Gunther Oettinger said in Astana at 6th Eurasian Forum KAZENERGY that Kazakhstan was invited to join. The project would reduce dependency on Russian gas supplies.

Alexey Belogoriyev, head of the expert section of the Institute for Energy Strategy, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the problem with the gas pipeline is a result of the undetermined status of the Caspian Sea. Another problem is gas supply for South-Eastern Europe. It will emphasise the Shah-Deniz-2 gas field.

Azerbaijan extracted 26.23 billion cubic meters of gas in 2010, exceeding the rate in 2009 by 11.2%. 16.67 billion cubic meters of gas was marketable (+2.1%). Azerbaijan plans to extract 16 billion cubic meters within the framework of Shah Deniz-2 in 2017, 6 billion cubic meters will be purchased by Turkey.

Belogoriyev said that Turkmenistan is focussing on supplying China and South Asia with gas. Some supplies are reserved for Russia. Supplies for the Southern Gas Corridor will only be available in 2016. All five sections of the corridor will be completed by 2016.

Turkmenistan plans to increase exports of gas to 125 billion cubic meters by 2015. Russia, China and Iran receive gas. China plans to increase capacity from 30 billion cubic meters to 55 billion.

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline has a cap of 33 billion cubic meters annually. The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline has a cap of 30 billion cubic meters running through Kazakhstan and Russia. Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed a deal on construction of the pipeline in 2007. Kazakhstan will increase gas exports from 26 billion cubic meters to 28.6 billion cubic meters in 2020.

The regime has seismological risks. This issue was discussed at the Caspian Dialogue-2012 International Forum in Moscow. A specialist of the Institute for Oceanology of the RAS noted risks in building the pipeline under the Caspian Sea in the Apsheron area.