No-win

By Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK

It is hard not to think of the real intentions of the European leaders who make loud claims about boycotting the Ukrainian part of the Euro-2012 football Cup. Human rights protection is a noble cause, but it is impossible not to notice the selective approach to this matter by the Europeans. Let us recall the Beijing Olympics. All the human rights organizations reported on the grave state of affairs in China, yet no state wanted to spoil relations with the ‘world’s workshop’ and all the scandals related to the Chinese were soft-pedaled. 

One of the most active European human rights fighters, Germany, sells tanks to Saudi Arabia without any second thoughts, even though this state still executes people on charges of ‘sorcery’. So it is obvious that the ideals of the western politicians, such as human rights, can be easily forgotten in the face of economic ad political circumstances. But are the European elites sincere even when they put the issues of human rights at the top of their agenda?

Alas, this is also not as pretty as it seems. Ukraine is being attacked for the ‘Timoshenko trial’ and its part of the Euro-2012 football conmtest is subjected to a boycott. Another inconvenient host this year – Azerbaijan, which won the Eurovision contest last year – is also subjected to criticism in Germany, though not to the extent of Ukraine. 

It is noteworthy that both these countries are very important for Europe as far as energy issues are concerned. Ukraine is a transit state and Azerbaijan is a supplier of energy resources. It is even more interesting that both these post-Soviet states try to conduct independent energy policies, which means they try to negotiate the most profitable gas sale conditions for themselves. 

But if Baku has only the aggressive media campaigning of some European papers as well as of some Euro-MPs (in both cases Germany is ‘head of the pack’), Kiev has to face unprecedented pressure on all levels. The EU, headed by Germany, is trying to make the Ukrainian President free ex-PM Timoshenko, who signed a gas contract unprofitable for Ukraine but profitable for both Europe and Russia back in 2009. Now Germany demands that Timoshenko is released to undergo a medical treatment in Berlin. German doctors often visit her in Ukrainian prison. Angela Merkel’s traditional trip to the Euro-championship this year is under question. It is worth noticing that Timoshenko isn’t a worn-out political figure; on the contrary, she is a viable candidate, or else the European efforts in her case wouldn’t have increased on the very eve of Ukrainian parliamentary elections that are due to take place this autumn. 

Moscow, which saw an anti-Russian implication in the ‘Timoshenko trial’, also offered the help of Russian doctors. However, unlike Germany, Russia doesn’t stake the future of bilateral relations on this single case. There’s a whole series of factors here, and the issue of gas transit to Europe isn’t the least of them.

Ukraine is definitely not ready to make the extradition as Germany demands. And of course no one can disregard such notions as ‘the law’ and ‘state sovereignty’. It is highly possible that Timoshenko won’t return after treatment in Berlin, and that would be a serious blow to the political image of Ukrainian President Yanukovich. 

According to the Ukrainian court, Timoshenko exceeded her powers and that cost the national Gas Company $187 million. The gas contracts signed by Timoshenko put the current government in a very harsh position. Kiev failed to make Moscow revise the contracts, and the common Ukrainian people who suffer from high gas prices won’t remember that it’s Timoshenko’s fault and will blame the current government for that. 

One can make a lot of suggestions about the ‘political subtext’ of the ‘Timoshenko trial’. This political figure is still very popular among the Ukrainian opposition, but it is almost impossible to prove (or disprove, for that matter) that the court was influenced by political considerations. But de jure this is an internal matter for Ukraine. It will be different if Timoshenko’s advocates managed to win the case in the European Court for Human rights. If in that case the Ukrainian government ignored the decision of the court, it would be violating its international obligations. But even in this hypothetical scenario Ukraine will have to answer before the whole European Council and not before particular European states. 

In the case of the boycott of Euro-2012 we seem to be dealing with political blackmail more than sincere care for observance of human rights. If Yanukovich submits to this blackmail it would deliver a serious blow to his image, and if Timoshenko doesn’t return from her treatment in Berlin it would case serious political turmoil back in Kiev. But if Kiev refuses to comply with the boycott, the attacks from the European media would also put it in a very hard position. Possible negative consequences can be foreseen right now: it seems that the Yalta Central European States summit scheduled for May, 11-12 has failed. Today the German, Czech, Slovak, Italian, Austrian and Estonian presidents refused to participate in it, and explained their refusal by the ‘Timoshenko trial’. 

And for now the media-induced scandal around this trial has given Timoshenko the image of an innocent victim, and her popularity in Ukraine seems to be restored. The joint opposition coalition is now 0.3% more popular than the ruling party, according to the Kiev Institute of Sociology quoted by km.ru. By supporting Timoshenko, the Europeans increase their own influence on the Ukrainian political stage and try to restore what they lost when Yanukovich gained power. And if the opposition coalition wins the upcoming elections the EU will block all the Ukrainian government’s attempts to review the fettering contracts through this coalition. So we can see that in this case the pretty wrapping of ‘fighting for human rights’ covers the pragmatic goals of the EU. Idealists are often used by pragmatic politicians, and there’s no point in asking whose rights and privileges the EU is trying to protect in Ukraine.