Elections in Armenia: regularities and surprises

Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to VK

On May 6th parliamentary elections took place in Armenia. The political technologist Arman Gevorkyan comments on the results of the elections.

-          In general, the forecasts of experts on which political parties would enter the parliament were fulfilled. What was a surprise?

-          A real surprise was that the party Orinats Erkir entered the parliament. I thought it wouldn’t get more than 2%, considering the steps made by its leader in 2008. It seemed he had lost his electorate. Nevertheless, 5% of people still trust Artur Bagdasaryan, the leader of Orinats Erkir.

-          Other political parties that entered the parliament were no surprise, were they?

-          The ruling Republican Party of Armenia, which has great resources, took first place. They did it due to administrative, financial and other resources.

It is sad that the party’s leader is President Sargsyan. It appeared that there are no people in the RPA who could present some positions in the economic and other spheres. All the issues were presented by the President, meaning that the RPA has turned into a monopoly, the party of the President.

The important aspect is that the RPA gained 50% + 1 mandate, i.e. the RPA could form a government without considering the opinions of other parties.

-          Comment on the results of the party Prosperous Armenia.

-          Prosperous Armenia showed very good results. It has increased its number of seats, and has gained twice as many votes as it did in the previous elections in 2007. 30% is a great result. Nevertheless, it is notable that PA expected greater results. It is difficult to say whether the party will agree to form a coalition with the RPA or not.

-          What is more beneficial for PA – to form a coalition with the RPA or not?

-          Today PA and its leader Gagik Tsarukyan are in a difficult situation. If PA forms a coalition with the RPA, it will have problems with voters who voted for PA as an alternative to the authorities. Will voters understand this? It is a serious problem. Secondly, the party can reject the coalition and become the opposition, but PA has never been meant to be the opposition. The opposition could be different: constructive or radical. What choice PA will make is not clear yet.

-          The radical opposition – the Armenian National Congress – got more than the 7% required by the law for electoral blocs. What do you think about prospects of this force?

-          Of course, it could be said that the ANC didn't get too many votes. They expected more. The reason for its failure is the irreconcilable financial resources of the ANC and the RPA and PA. Even Heritage spent more resources than the ANC. The ANC’s financing is insufficient.

However, I’m sure that the former presiden,t Ter-Petrosyan, the leader of ANC, will take part in the presidential elections in 2013. We will see it in late summer.

I don’t know how many seats the ANC will get, 7 or 8, but it will be the real opposition to the RPA.

-          What can you say about another opposition force - Dashnaktsyutun?

-          Of course, in comparison with 2007, the party lost more than half its seats, it had 16 seats, now it has 6. This is a great loss. At the same time, the party should consider the results of the elections positively. Dashnaktsyutun managed to leave the ruling coalition and gained the trust of voters again. I think it will remain in the opposition.

-          How do the results of the parliamentary elections correlate with the coming presidential elections in February 2013?

-          The results of the elections to the parliament led to the fact that Serge Sargsyan improved his positions in the political system of the country ahead of the 2013 elections. If no extraordinary events take place, Sargsyan has strong chances of being re-elected and remaining president.