‘Prosperous Armenia’ no longer a part of ruling coalition

By Susanna Petrosyan, exclusively to VK

Post-election developments in Armenia took almost all the experts by surprise. The May 24 statement of ‘Prosperous Armenia’ party’s leader Gagik Tsukeryan, who said that his party won’t enter the ruling coalition, became a sensation. According to Tsukeryan, his party got almost half a million votes, and its supporters expect real political and social changes. Even though the PAP didn’t get the opportunity to form the government, it is still an influential political force, so its leader doesn’t see the necessity to team up with the ruling party.

According to some experts, the party expected to get the post of the PM, and when the President refused, the party made its final decision about the coalition. Right after Tsukeryan’s address all ministers and governors - PAP members signed their resignations. The ruling party had a reserved reaction to this statement: it announced a coalition with its old ally – the ‘Land of law’ party and took up the responsibility of forming the government.

If Armenia was an ordinary European democracy, Tsukeryan’s statement wouldn’t have surprised anyone, but since it is in fact an semi-authoritarian regime, experts were convinced that the ruling clan would get Tsukeryan to compromise. And since it didn’t happen Armenia is facing a whole new political picture.

It is clear now that the monolithic character of the Armenian power is destroyed. Even though the ruling party won the parliamentary elections, it was actually weakened as it lost one of its coalition allies, which indicates, according to the coordinator of the oppositional Armenian National Congress, Levon Zubaryan, the growing political weakness of Serge Sarksyan and the future collapse of the monolithic power system.

Another important aspect of the election results is that even though the ruling Republican Party got some 630,000 votes in its favor, some 750,000 people voted against it, i.e. the RPA didn’t get the absolute majority. The new parliament will have at least 50 members who won’t be controlled by the President and his team, and that is some 40% of the MPs. In the current situation this balance will become a source of constant discomfort for the power.

Most of the experts agree that this situation will influence the upcoming 2013 presidential election as Serge Sarksyan is about to get a serious rival, even though it is not yet agreed who it is going to be. But it is quite probable that instead of supporting Sarksyan the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ will put forward its own candidate. However, some experts are convinced that the PAP won’t ever choose to become a true opposition as most of its members have strong business interest in cooperation with the power.

Nevertheless, the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ now doesn’t have the parliamentary majority, and its members are no longer on the government, so that automatically makes the party an opposition one. However, an opposition force can be constructive instead of radical, and the PAP seems to prefer the first way.

Some observers suggest that the members of the business community will soon start leaving the PAP due to the risk to face problems with police and tax administration. It is worth mentioning that 28 PAP members had refused to participate in the election. In general, they could be divided into three categories.

First one includes ex-members of the government , the second one consists of businessmen, and the third one includes party functionaries who preferred to return to their administrative work. So the number of people who could be pressured by the government by the means of tax administration is already minimized.

Gagik Tsukeryan has a reputation of a politician who thinks all his steps through, and there’s also an opinion that he is unofficially supported by Russia. And the space for maneuver the government has regarding the business community is more limited that it may seem, as the ruling party has much more businessmen members that the PAP. So if the government tries to pressure the PAP, it would get problems for itself, especially as the Republican Party, headed by the President, isn’t at all a monolithic structure.