Zeaev Khanin: “For me, Azerbaijan is Israel…”

Petr Lukimson, Israel. Exclusively to VK

A leading scientist of the Israeli Ministry of Integration, Zeaev Khanin, can be called one of Israel’s chief experts on problems of people from the USSR-CIS in Israel, he is also one of the most in-demand political scientists of the country. Khanin is famous for his ambiguity and paradoxical statements, although they are always very precise. Ahead of the visit by the Russian President to Israel, we asked Mr. Khanin to answer our questions on relations between Israel and Russia and on the problems of the Middle East and the Caucasus regions.

-          Mr. Khanin, we are at the cusp of the visit by Vladimir Putin to Israel. There are many questions in the complicated relations between Russia and Israel. For example, the question of Israel’s attitude to Russia's support for Bashar Assad. Will this issue be discussed at the meeting of two leaders and in what perspective?

-          It should be understood that Israel is not a side in the Syrian conflict. Israel still has no position on the problem of exactly what regime would be the most favorable for Syria. It is difficult to define what alternative is worse for Israel. What remains of Bashar Assad’s regime is bad. However, changing the current regime in favor of radical Islamist-Sunnis is bad too. Dissolution of the country into Alawi, Kurdish, Arab and other enclaves and the beginning of a civil war is bad as well, because the waves of this conflict will reach the Israeli coast. That is why the Russian position, whatever it is, cannot be a reason for a worsening of Russian-Israeli relations. The current armament supplies from Russia to Syria probably prevent the opposition from gaining victory, but do not touch on interests of the Israeli Defense Army.

On the other hand, as Russia and China state clearly, they won’t allow intervention in Syria, as there was in Libya, but are ready to consider some other variants of settlement of the situation in the country, Israel and Russia gain more and more common points. If Bashar Assad resigns, but the Ba'ath party and the Alawis remain in power and new interested forces are allowed to come to power, a new Syria will appear which will not support the terrorist organization Hezbollah and stop playing nuclear games for Iran. Will this topic be discussed during the meeting of Putin and Netanyahu? It will probably be mentioned, but no more.

-          Will topics connected with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Iranian nuclear bomb be discussed?

-          It is difficult to call what happens at such meetings discussions. It is about signing documents, no more. If the leaders of Israel and Russia have a serious talk, this talk will concern economic development of bilateral relations. However, they will probably compare notes on three mentioned problems: the Syrian problem, prospects of settlement of the Middle East conflict and the attitude to Tehran.

-          What will the comparison mean?

-          It will show that Russia and Israel don’t agree on Syria. Probably several possible variants of further development will be defined, but they will be discussed not by Putin and Netanyahu, but expert groups of the two countries. As for the Palestinian problem, it will be confirmed that Russia, just like Israel, is satisfied with the status quo.

Regarding Iran, there might be some statements and even signing of some documents. However, we will not learn about it on June 25. I think we won’t do so even in a year or a decade. The visit is aimed at discussion of joint Russian-Israeli projects and strategic deals in the sphere of the military industry and infrastructure.

-          Therefore, a stupid question arises – why is a personal visit by Putin needed for that? These issues could be dealt at a lower level…

-          You are right. But Putin is coming to say “thank you” to Israel and its foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman for its support in the presidential and parliamentary elections. I'll remind you that Lieberman was one of the few international politicians who clearly stated that the Russian elections were democratic and legitimate, and Israel accepted Russia’s choice. The Israeli media criticized Lieberman, but life has shown that he made a thoughtful step.

-          It seems to me that the people from Russia living in Israel have fallen into a kind of euphoria connected with Putin’s visit. How can this phenomenon be explained – by the fact that the former Russian citizens still feel a connection with Russia?

-          I don’t think so. There are many people in Israel who are concerned about the so-called “background of the country of origin.” For former Russian citizens, Putin’s visit is really important as a symbol. But any poll will tell you that these views do not influence their strategic symbols. Despite the common opinion, the natives of the former Soviet Union in Israel are not a pro-Russian lobby. According to my research, the share of those who think Israel should redirect its policy toward Russia and become its main strategic partner in settlement of the Palestinian conflict is 4%.

The euphoria that appeared ahead of Putin’s visit among representatives of the Russian community is understandable. The same euphoria could be seen among people of Moroccan origin during the visit to Israel by the prime minister of this Arab country. Some people were born in Israel and have never been to Morocco, but they died of happiness.

-          How can this phenomenon be explained? Is it some phantom attraction of the country of origin, where their ancestors had been living for centuries?

-          It is about the well-known sociologic phenomenon: connection with the country of origin encourages an increase of the status of the migrants in their own eyes, as well as in the eyes of other people. This phenomenon is spread among Jewish diasporas in the Western countries. For example, Canadian Jews feel Israel is very important, because in Canada a community has a right to existence only if its representatives clearly know where their historic homeland is. The Irish have Ireland, the Chinese have China, while the Jews have Israel. As Russia begins to play an important role in the Middle East, that promotes the status of the Russian-speaking community in eyes of the Israeli establishment.

-          I cannot help but think of another country that claims to be a member of the leading players in our region – Turkey. Is there any chance for normalization of Israel’s relations with this country in the near future?

-          As you well know, all possible words have been uttered by Israel and all possible proposals have been made. The ball is in the Turkish side of the court.

-          Turkey thinks in a different way. Erdogan stated that he waited for apologies for the Maramara incident and expected material compensation from Israel to the families of the lost Turkish citizens …

-          The Foreign Ministry’s experts and analytical centers believe that fulfillment of these requirements won’t lead to normalization of relations, but will lead to creating new requirements by Turkey. In the current ruling circles of Turkey there are no serious intentions to normalize relations with Israel. Fulfillment of Turkish requirements could only harm Israel’s interests in the long-term. The same conclusion is made by experts from Brussels and Washington, which is why Europe and the USA aren't pushing us to normalize relations with Turkey. Today only a small group of Israeli businessmen who have business in Turkey insist on normalization of relations with this country.

-          But what country could be an alternative for Israeli-Turkish relations? Azerbaijan?

-          What do you mean “could be”?! It has already happened. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, two Muslim pro-Western states, became a nice alternative to our relations with Turkey in the Turkic world. And our parliament will recognize the so-called Armenian massacre of 1915 only after Armeni makes peace with Azerbaijan.

-          Is this possible? What do you think?

-          I think it is quite possible, if a model of regional development is created that guarantees the Armenians a speedy growth in living standards in their country and establishes conditions under which its partnership with the EU will bring it benefits, while its partnership with Iran will turn into a failure. However, I don’t think Armenia and Azerbaijan will make peace in the foreseeable future.

-          What position should Israel take on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

-          It is not our sphere, and it doesn’t touch on us. Israel is a technological, space, and economic, but not geopolitical superpower. We don’t interfere in a conflict if it doesn’t concern our interests.

-          Probably if the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is settled, the international community will pressure Israel to settle the conflict with Palestine according to the same model. What will this mean for Israel?

-          It depends what we are comparing – which side in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resembles your Israel and which side – the Arabs.

-          Sorry, but we both are Jews. What do you think?

-          I think Israel plays the role of Azerbaijan. It is obvious.

-          Why do you think so?

-          It is simple. The modern world lives according to the principle of nations’ right to self-determination within the inviolability of post-war and colonial boundaries. The state of Israel was established under this principle. If the principle is violated, all decisions made by the international community after the Second World War on establishing of national states should be doubted. The principle is applied to the boundaries of the former Soviet republics. That is why an attempt to occupy a part of Azerbaijan’s territory by Armenia is similar to attempts by the Arab world to legitimise the state of Palestine, which has never existed. In this situation, Israel is interested in preservation of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan within the boundaries of the Soviet period. Any other result of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict threatens Israel and the whole world.