Solution of Transnistria issue is example for Nagorno-Karabakh

by Alexey Balashov exclusively for VK

The Constitutional Court of Romania recognized the referendum on the impeachment of President Traian Basescu as failed last week. This means that Basescu has achieved another victory over his political opponents. The first victory happened in 2007 when the parliament’s attempt of impeachment for excess of power was nullified by a referendum, 57% of voters expressed confidence in the president and allowed him to conclude the first terms of office. But the referendum this year saw only 46% of voters when 50%+1 were needed. The Constitutional Court did not recognize the referendum and Basescu was back to presidency.

In an interview with Golos Rossii, Basescu said that he was ready to co-exist with oppositionist prime minister and parliament. He also touched upon the Transnistria problem, one of the most sensitive aspects of Russian-Romanian relations. Basescu stated that he wanted Moldavia and Romania to be sovereign states populated by a single nation. The president approved the fight of dictator Ion Antonescu against the USSR in 1941. But the Romanian leader avoid telling the goal of merging Romania and Moldova into a single state.

Basescu’s current objective is to speed up the process of joining the EU. Joining the union would put Moldova under influence of Bucharest, but a smoother position in settling the conflict would no doubt intensify the negotiations.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin visited Tiraspol in late July and said that the future of Transnistria is to become part of the Moldova Federation. Regarding Moscow’s recognition of Transnistria, Karasin responded: “We see the future of Transnistria as a separate district with special internationally-recognized guarantees as part of the Moldova state”. This statement is essential, because it was made by a high-ranking Russian official in Teraspol for authorities of the breakaway republic for the first time.

Neutrality of the Moldova Federation is one of the points of the peace treaty to be signed. Basescu mentioned help for Moldova to join the EU, making neutrality of Kishinev questionable. The EU factor is peculiar when comparing the Transnistria conflict with Nagorno-Karabakh. No state involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict had plans for supranational unions. This makes federalization in the South Caucasus conflict more acceptable than for Moldova. Moreover, elites of Kishinev and Tiraspol will try to exaggerate their importance and role in the federation.

There is nonetheless a change in the positions of Bucharest and Moscow, their views on the problem, ease of demands. Moreover, Moscow clarifies that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are an exception and their example should not be used to resolve other conflicts on the post-Soviet space. The Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria conflicts should be settled according to the international law and territorial unity (the way it was done in Chechnya, although with a lot of blood spilt). It is the only legal and acceptable solution.

Traian Basescu continues assuring Russia that the European missile shield is not against Moscow and targets terrorists and states with unclear nuclear programs and missiles exceeding permissible medium and low ranges.

Concerning energy supplies for the EU and new gas pipeline to Europe, the Romanian president emphasized that, as a member of the European Union, the country will be obliged to share the EU energy policy. This means that Nabucco would be a priority for Romania. Yet, Basescu said that Romania would not oppose the South Stream project if it proves more efficient. Romania continues its bid between the two partners and does not want to lose ties with Russia’s Gazprom.

Romania will have new presidential polls soon enough. Authorities in the country have high chances to change and so would the vector of development. New authorities may dissociate themselves from the predecessor and disavow many of his statements and initiatives. This include such positive ideas as a smoother position in the Transnistria settlement and granting Gazprom and its South Stream an opportunity to compete with Nabucco.