Russia launches projects of stability in the Caucasus. Part 1
Read on the website Vestnik KavkazaAuthor: Voice of Russia
Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of VK, spoke to Igor Panarin on the domestic political situation in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, as well as the factors that influence the stability in the South Caucasus.
Panarin: We are going to discuss a very important issue for Russia; it is a problem of security and stability in the region, which has often been a zone of conflicts, including armed conflicts, i. e. the Caucasus. Today I’ll speak to Alexey Vlasov, Deputy Dean of the History Faculty of MSU, the man who has dealt with the problems of the post-Soviet space, but most of all with the problems of the Caucasus, for a long time.
So there is a war in Syria, constant terrorist attacks occur all over the world, the situation in the territory of Iraq is unstable, "Muslim Brotherhood" comes to power in Egypt; all of this is happening next to the region, which was once part of the Russian empire. Our brothers in Georgia and Armenia and Azerbaijan have lived together for hundreds of years, however, this region is quite explosive. What is the general situation there today, from your point of view?
Vlasov: I would say that Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia will face problems in 2013.
Panarin: Why 2013, not 2012?
Vlasov: Because in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia there will be presidential elections.
Panarin: Will they be held almost at the same time in all the countries?
Vlasov: They will take place during the year. In my opinion, this is a field for possible attempts to destabilize the situation, especially in Azerbaijan.
Panarin: Would you say that the position of the current president is not enough stable, and there are forces that can shake it?
Vlasov: We have repeatedly seen over the last few years that even the most stable regimes which, apparently, should exist for decades can be shaken,.
Panarin: I agree with you. For example, North Africa seemed completely serene.
Vlasov: And our Azerbaijani colleagues feel that the risks are increasing.
Panarin: Is it so despite the fact that "Eurovision" has been held there, a solid complex of buildings has been constructed, the event has been held at the highest international level? This is a prosperous and stable political situation. Do analysts believe that there is a tension?
Vlasov: There are forces which are trying to destabilize the situation, using the youth online communities and some social issues which are still unresolved. You know, the election period is the moment when it is possible to consider white to be black and vice versa through a system of civil structures which are actually controlled from the outside.
I think that the danger is not the old opposition, say, "Musavat" party. These are people who are involved in the existing political system. They criticize the government, but it is not too dangerous critic. Of course, youth networks are a serious risk and a serious threat.
Panarin: What do they want to do if they reach their goals?
Vlasov: During the "Eurovision" they organized a campaign called "Sing for Democracy" with the help of Western funds. The mechanism is well known.
Panarin: And it is rather primitive.
Vlasov: Yes, but there is another risk. Of course, in Azerbaijan, few people care about the problems of Syria, the Kurds of Iraq. But the issue of Iran is quite important.
Panarin: Is there any connection between the situations in Syria and in Iran?
Vlasov: Not long ago, two young Azerbaijani writers were detained by Iranian authorities without explanation in the territory of Iran. They arrived for a writing contest and were detained; they were not given a possibility to meet with representatives of the Embassy and the Consulate General for a few days.
Naturally, Baku expressed its dissatisfaction to the Iranian president, not only to the head of the Foreign Ministry. There was a meeting with the Minister of Education of Iran, who, apparently, was a negotiator from Tehran. After that, it was stated that the authorities allow it, but the fact remains.
Not so long ago it was announced on the disclosure of the spy network in Azerbaijan. It is suspected that its members are associated with the banned Islamic Party of Azerbaijan. It is possible that the filaments are drawn from the intelligence activities of neighboring states, and Russia is obviously not among them. Religious factor as a tool of influencing the internal politics of Azerbaijan is a good example. Such things, in principle, can be used.
Panarin: Does it turn out that Azerbaijan is a platform for the game of Iran, United Kingdom, and United States of America? Of course, Russia is not interested in the development of the situation.
Vlasov: Russia is clearly interested in stable and friendly Azerbaijan. There can no speculation on this subject, we reject this possibility. Recently, Baku hosted the Russian-Azerbaijani inter-regional forum in which we have presented a plan of cooperation of Azerbaijan and the Eurasian integration project; it has received good reviews in the press. Although the head custom officer of Azerbaijan said that the country is not going to join the Customs Union, this is not the case. This is not the question of joining the Customs Union; the issue is the format of interaction with Azerbaijan.
Panarin: This format can be humanitarian or educational.
Vlasov: Yes, it is educational and spiritual. In this sense, everything is taken positively. Somebody tries to set Russia and Azerbaijan at variance, but it is undoubted that Russia is interested in stability, in the choice of the people of Azerbaijan not influenced by hostile external forces. Of course, we are closely watching the preparations, although we have only one year. We hope that everything goes well.
To be continued
Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of VK, spoke to Igor Panarin on the domestic political situation in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, as well as the factors that influence the stability in the South Caucasus.
Panarin: We are going to discuss a very important issue for Russia; it is a problem of security and stability in the region, which has often been a zone of conflicts, including armed conflicts, i. e. the Caucasus. Today I’ll speak to Alexey Vlasov, Deputy Dean of the History Faculty of MSU, the man who has dealt with the problems of the post-Soviet space, but most of all with the problems of the Caucasus, for a long time.
So there is a war in Syria, constant terrorist attacks occur all over the world, the situation in the territory of Iraq is unstable, "Muslim Brotherhood" comes to power in Egypt; all of this is happening next to the region, which was once part of the Russian empire. Our brothers in Georgia and Armenia and Azerbaijan have lived together for hundreds of years, however, this region is quite explosive. What is the general situation there today, from your point of view?
Vlasov: I would say that Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia will face problems in 2013.
Panarin: Why 2013, not 2012?
Vlasov: Because in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia there will be presidential elections.
Panarin: Will they be held almost at the same time in all the countries?
Vlasov: They will take place during the year. In my opinion, this is a field for possible attempts to destabilize the situation, especially in Azerbaijan.
Panarin: Would you say that the position of the current president is not enough stable, and there are forces that can shake it?
Vlasov: We have repeatedly seen over the last few years that even the most stable regimes which, apparently, should exist for decades can be shaken,.
Panarin: I agree with you. For example, North Africa seemed completely serene.
Vlasov: And our Azerbaijani colleagues feel that the risks are increasing.
Panarin: Is it so despite the fact that "Eurovision" has been held there, a solid complex of buildings has been constructed, the event has been held at the highest international level? This is a prosperous and stable political situation. Do analysts believe that there is a tension?
Vlasov: There are forces which are trying to destabilize the situation, using the youth online communities and some social issues which are still unresolved. You know, the election period is the moment when it is possible to consider white to be black and vice versa through a system of civil structures which are actually controlled from the outside.
I think that the danger is not the old opposition, say, "Musavat" party. These are people who are involved in the existing political system. They criticize the government, but it is not too dangerous critic. Of course, youth networks are a serious risk and a serious threat.
Panarin: What do they want to do if they reach their goals?
Vlasov: During the "Eurovision" they organized a campaign called "Sing for Democracy" with the help of Western funds. The mechanism is well known.
Panarin: And it is rather primitive.
Vlasov: Yes, but there is another risk. Of course, in Azerbaijan, few people care about the problems of Syria, the Kurds of Iraq. But the issue of Iran is quite important.
Panarin: Is there any connection between the situations in Syria and in Iran?
Vlasov: Not long ago, two young Azerbaijani writers were detained by Iranian authorities without explanation in the territory of Iran. They arrived for a writing contest and were detained; they were not given a possibility to meet with representatives of the Embassy and the Consulate General for a few days.
Naturally, Baku expressed its dissatisfaction to the Iranian president, not only to the head of the Foreign Ministry. There was a meeting with the Minister of Education of Iran, who, apparently, was a negotiator from Tehran. After that, it was stated that the authorities allow it, but the fact remains.
Not so long ago it was announced on the disclosure of the spy network in Azerbaijan. It is suspected that its members are associated with the banned Islamic Party of Azerbaijan. It is possible that the filaments are drawn from the intelligence activities of neighboring states, and Russia is obviously not among them. Religious factor as a tool of influencing the internal politics of Azerbaijan is a good example. Such things, in principle, can be used.
Panarin: Does it turn out that Azerbaijan is a platform for the game of Iran, United Kingdom, and United States of America? Of course, Russia is not interested in the development of the situation.
Vlasov: Russia is clearly interested in stable and friendly Azerbaijan. There can no speculation on this subject, we reject this possibility. Recently, Baku hosted the Russian-Azerbaijani inter-regional forum in which we have presented a plan of cooperation of Azerbaijan and the Eurasian integration project; it has received good reviews in the press. Although the head custom officer of Azerbaijan said that the country is not going to join the Customs Union, this is not the case. This is not the question of joining the Customs Union; the issue is the format of interaction with Azerbaijan.
Panarin: This format can be humanitarian or educational.
Vlasov: Yes, it is educational and spiritual. In this sense, everything is taken positively. Somebody tries to set Russia and Azerbaijan at variance, but it is undoubted that Russia is interested in stability, in the choice of the people of Azerbaijan not influenced by hostile external forces. Of course, we are closely watching the preparations, although we have only one year. We hope that everything goes well.
To be continued