Azerbaijan-2013: will there be a single opposition candidate?

After the recent announcement of "New Azerbaijan", the ruling party of Azerbaijan, about the nomination of the current President Ilham Aliyev for the presidential elections in 2013, preparations for the race started in earnest. As we noted in one of our articles (http://www.vestikavkaza.ru/analytics/Azerbaydzhan-2013-tochka-vybora.html) on the pre-election situation in Azerbaijan, the only politically mature force that may attempt to compete with the current government in the upcoming presidential election is the traditional opposition, united at the moment in an organization called "Public Chamber". We considered the inevitable difficulties with the nomination of a single candidate to be one of the major problems facing "Public Chamber". The events taking place now in the camp of the Azerbaijani opposition only confirm the correctness of this forecast.

Speaking on the radio station "Azadlig" (the Azerbaijani service of Radio "Svoboda"), the permanent head of the party "Musavat", Isa Gambar, casually said that he would run for president in 2013 as the candidate of his party. The interview itself was devoted to an entirely different subject, the debate with journalist Khadija Ismayilova became more intense and emotional, and at one point Gambar literally said that the citizens will be able to require his answer to any questions only in 2013, when he would put forward his candidacy for the presidential elections. It is an open question if the experienced politician planned to make such a statement or it was made involuntarily. The fact remains, however, that these words of Gambar came as a bombshell: the other parties constituting "Public Chamber" clearly didn't expected the nomination of a "separate candidate" from "Musavat". As a result, Gambar and his party faced a barrage of criticism from their colleagues.


Here is the comment in an interview to Trend on the words of the head of "Musavat" by the vice-president of PfpA, Fuad Gahramanli: "The statement of Gambar about nominating his candidacy against the decision of the Coordination Council of the Public Chamber not to discuss the issue ahead of time creates some inconsistencies and raises questions in the media and society. Isa Gambar himself should clarify the issues related to these inconsistencies."


Another deputy head of PFPA, Razi Nurullayev, in an interview to Modern.az said that the candidate of the major groups is defined by their bodies. "A single candidate of Public Chamber has still not been nominated. Both the PC and our party are opposed to pushing this question onto the agenda. The issue of a single candidate is used by our enemies in a negative manner, and the unity of the opposition is hit," the deputy head of PFPA said.

The leader of the party "Open Society", Rasul Guliyev, also expressed his attitude to the issue. "I have said that Isa Gambar will nominate his candidacy in any way. The fact that the man who constantly talks about democratic values nominates his ​​candidature without a party conference, is an indication of his principles. I am no longer going to talk about him," Guliyev said .

The chairman of the Citizen and Development Party (CDP), Ali Aliyev, also commented on the words of Gambar: "I think that Isa Gambar was enraged by the atmosphere in which this statement was made. And this made him the author of a statement that created tension. Sharp questions addressed to him during the radio broadcast of "Azadlig" irritated Gambar, usually cold-blooded; he probably lost control and made this statement. Public Chamber is trying to soften his words. But the statement has been made, and Isa Gambar has announced his position. "According to Ali Aliyev, now we need to wait for what will happen in the PC. Aliyev said that the statement of Gambar was planned and expected. Clearly, Bashgan will try to become a candidate, he said.


The main cause of the unsuccessful activity of the opposition in Azerbaijan are the insincere relations between the "Musavat" party and the Popular Front of Azerbaijan (PFPA). This was said to Trend by the head of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan (DPA), Sardar Jalaloglu. "Most of the negative trends in the Azerbaijani opposition are associated with the rivalry between "Musavat" and PFPA. We have always said that the two parties would not go to each other for concessions and will not nominate a single presidential candidate of the Public Chamber," Jalaloglu said. According to him, the Public Chamber (PC) is monopolized by the two opposition parties, but at the same time both "Musavat" and the Popular Front put themselves above PC. "Accordingly, the management of the Public Chamber is also divided into two groups. One is the group of supporters and members of "Musavat", the other is the supporters and members of the Popular Front. This is due to the fact that the PC was originally created on the wrong basis. And now they are talking about discussing the issue to nominate a single candidate for president, two days before the election, it is too early, and before that let's see if the society will accept our action, etc.," the leader of the Democratic Party said. According to him, this tactic of "Musavat" and the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan led to the defeat of the opposition. "Decisions of the PC are not significant for them, and, most importantly, the interests of the two parties are put above the interests of society. Even without speaking to the allies, everyone nominates his candidature, which in turn leads to unwanted reactionS. I believe that between these parties there is no real cooperation," Jalaloglu said.


The head of "Azadliq", Ahmed Oruj, noted the unsuccessful activities of "Musavat" and PFPA. According to him, it does not matter whether Isa Gambar or Ali Kerimli will be nominated as candidates in the presidential elections or not. As for the ban on the discussion of a single candidate from the PC, it is absurd, Orudj said. "That is, the organization is not ready to discuss common issues and fears its collapse because of this discussion. What will change with nominating people in such an absurd situation?" Oruj asked.


"Musavat" regarded the accusations of the Popular Front of Azerbaijan regarding Gambar’s declaration of his intention to run for president as a hasty step. "The statement of Gambar in connection with his participation in the elections is a normal statement. By this statement Gambar expressed the desire to take part in the presidential election, and of course, all the members of “Musavat” and our supporters reacted to this with respect. However, some of our friends and allies incorrectly perceive this issue; they have rushed a bit," Chairman of the Supreme Council of the party "Musavat" Arzu Samadbayli told Trend. Each party has its own candidate in the presidential election, Samadbayli said. "We also plan to take part in the presidential elections of 2013, and our candidate is, naturally, Isa Gambar, and he expressed his desire to do this," Samadbayli said. According to him, those who have made the hasty steps will also understand that they have expressed their thoughts wrongly, because their party leaders also said that they were a little bit hasty. Referring to the decision of the Public Chamber on the inadmissibility of the discussion of the issue of candidates, Samadbayli noted that the PC has not made such a decision, and no political party or public agency can impose something on a political party or teach it. "It can go beyond ethics, and the matter is the issue of a single candidate, which today is not a matter of discussion for the PC, you should make a nomination to be able to identify a single candidate amongst them," Samadbayli said. According to him, this will never happen, because another organization calling itself the opposition may say that it puts forward a candidate, and it does not give an opportunity to decide on a single candidate. "We believe that a single candidate is not relevant, and the main candidate has chances. This is our position," Samadbayli said. According to him, while the so-called Public Chamber does not discuss the question of a single candidate, this does not violate any agreement or anyone's rights. "Public Chamber has not been created for participating in the presidential election, and today it should not resolve the question of participation in the presidential elections with a single candidate, and in this regard, no decision is taken," Samadbayli said.


It is noteworthy that a party colleague of Samadbayli and a close colleague of Gambar, Arif Hajili, follows a somewhat different opinion about the role of the Public Chamber in the upcoming presidential election. “We need the consent of the parties to determine a single presidential candidate in the Public Chamber. If the applicants will make concessions to each other, of course, this process will take place without any problems. But you can understand any political leader. Each of them has his own team, each of them is the leader of his own political party,” the member of the Public Chamber, the head of the Central Executive Office of the "Musavat" Arif Hajili said, answering the question on the issue of a single candidate. He noted that during previous elections the opposition could not determine its single candidate: "If you remember, during the last presidential election in 2003, which involved the democratic camp, all the ambitious candidates somehow participated in the election campaign - either directly or by supporting other candidate. However, it was known to both political forces and society who is the main candidate. The electorate supported Isa Gambar as the main opposition candidate and voted for him. We think that if this time Isa Gambar does not manage to become a single candidate, though we intend to make this a serious effort for this, he will again be the main opposition candidate." As for determining a single candidate by voting or some other way, Arif Hajili did not even want to speak in detail about this: "In general, I believe that today, the chances of Gambar becoming a single candidate are far higher than those of others." Certainly, it would be strange if Hajili had said something else about the chances of his party boss. One can only conjecture that the same opinion, but regarding their own leader, is shared by members of PFPA.

Thus, a little more than a year before the election, we are witnessing disintegration processes in the traditional Azerbaijani opposition. Whether its leaders will manage to stop this process or it will lead to a final "divorce" of the main opposition forces, time will tell. However, the experience of election campaigns in 2008 and 2003 shows that the chances of overcoming the internal contradictions amongst the opposition and, as a consequence, the issue of nominating a single candidate, are not great.