Udo Steinbach: "Israeli military strike on Iran is no longer on agenda"

 

 Author: Interview by Orkhan Sattarov, head of European office of VK    

A German expert on the Middle East, Professor  of Islamic Studies Udo Steinbach, discusses Middle Eastern issues with VK.

 

- Mr. Steinbach, this March you said that the parties in the conflict over Iran's nuclear program have been closer than ever to a military breakup. Since then the situation has stabilized, but recently Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again publicly declared that he was ready to order a military strike on Iran. Do you believe that Israel is ready to take this step alone?

  
- No, I do not believe it. This threat has been neutralized, and, in my opinion, for a long time. I believe that we will see a
reorientation of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East which will be the result of changes in the relations between the U.S. and Iran. In addition, hardly anyone in Israel is delighted at the prospect of a military confrontation with Iran, Israeli society protests against it. Moreover, neither the General Staff of the United States, nor Barack Obama, positioning himself as a kind of "knight of peace”, are eager to get involved in a military adventure.

From the beginning, the main question was, whether Prime Minister Netanyahu, backed by several of his closest associates, is ready to launch a military operation against Iran, using  American support. Before the presidential election in the U.S. there was a fairly high risk that Israel would start a military operation against Iran, and even manage to get American support, given the specificity of the elections in the U.S. But Netanyahu does not dare to do so. Now, with the lack of support both within Israel and the U.S., a military strike on Iran has been removed from the agenda.

 

- What, in your opinion, will be Barack Obama's Middle East policy in the context of his second term in office?

 

- The U.S. has a pretty meagre policy space in the region. What do we have? Relations with Israel, based on the known tensions between Washington and Tel Aviv, have been spoiled - and, I think, will be for a long time. Therefore, we should not expect any advances in the peace process with the Palestinians. As for the Iranian nuclear program, here again American policy has reached a dead end. The policy of sanctions against Tehran has not led to the expected results. Turkey is extremely concerned about the events taking place in the Arab countries, and
their implications for the "Kurdish question." Therefore, the only manoeuvre the Americans have in the region now may be to change relations with Iran.

 - Can we talk about changing the relationship between the U.S. and Iran in the context of the ongoing crisis over its nuclear program?

 

- It is necessary to highlight two points. First, what is known of the military component of Iran's nuclear program? In fact, nothing. U.S. estimates do not confirm that the Iranians are working on nuclear weapons. But the fact remains that Iran feels threatened. And in this situation of increasing threat it may still decide to build a bomb.

Secondly, the Iranian government is convinced that U.S. policy is aimed at changing the regime in Tehran. Thus, if the United States can show that it does not intend to change the government in Iran, and also give it a security guarantee, the question of the military component of Iran's nuclear program will disappear. This would be a prerequisite for US-Iranian rapprochement in the region, which would bring significant benefits to the United States.

 

- What benefits would the US get in this case?

 

- In particular, this would enable them to actively intervene in the Syrian issue. Because I do not believe that Syria is a strategic partner of Iran. Iran could do without Syria - and if the Syrian issue contradicts Iranian interests, Tehran will allow the regime of Bashar al-Assad to fall.

If Israel continues to threaten Iran, it will be necessary to start a peace process between Iran and Israel, supported by joint US-European efforts (provided that, in principle, the Europeans are willing to play a more active role in the region), to influence the Netanyahu government .

Rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran would open a wide space of work in the Arab countries, which are constantly under the heavy load of the conflict between the West and Iran. The burden of the Iranian threat would be gone for them. Also, finally, the old allies that are a burden to American policy in the region - Saudi Arabia and Bahrain - could be left to themselves, which would strengthen the internal pressure in these countries leading to the reforms of their ossified systems. 

In this sense, Iranian-American rapprochement would lead to a massive upgrade in the region, which would have a direct effect on the democratization of the country and ease the general situation there.

 

To be continued