Western, Turkish, the Gulf monarchies’ goals in Syria

By Vestnik Kavkaza

The UN is developing the plan and the format of a peacemaking operation in Syria in case of the Security Council decides to interfere with the conflict in the Arab country. It is planned that the operation will consist of observing, military, and civil components. Civil employees will deal with protection of human rights.

Meanwhile, Boris Dolgov, senior researcher of the Center for Arab Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies, thinks that “the Syrian crisis is caused outside of Syria, that is, there is no internal social and economic crisis that we've seen in Tunisia and Egypt. The main problem and the main cause of the so-called "Arab Spring" are internal factors, but in Syria and Libya these are the external factors.

According to Dolgov, two years ago the social and economic situation in Syria was much better than in Tunisia and Egypt. “There always have been problems in Syria, of course: this is the problem of unemployment, problems associated with socio-economic problems, a housing crisis, population growth… But these problems are not social and economic crisis, that is, not the cause of the internal conflict that is going on in Syria. The main reason is the external impact from the outside, the assistance to the armed anti-government groups that were set up just after the start of the conflict.

There is an opinion that at first in Syria there was an internal conflict, discontent of certain segments of the population, and peaceful demonstrations that were suppressed by troops and the police, and this triggered the growth of this conflict. There is evidence of journalists who left "Al-Jazeera", which suggests that since the beginning of the conflict, that is, since March 2011 dozens of militants crossed the Syrian border and joined the protest rallies, provoked demonstrations and responses of the authorities,” Dolgov says.

“As for the current situation in Syria, economic and social reforms are currently under way there: a referendum on a new constitution was held. The new constitution abolished the old article of the constitution, which assumed the monopoly of the Ba'ath party, the ruling force of Syrian society. In Syria, there are new laws on the media, on elections, on municipalities, that is, all the laws that exist in a normal democratic state and political system are being accepted. But the West and the external forces that are now seeking to destroy Syria do not need this.

There is a plan for the dismemberment of Syria into four or five states or ethno-confessional entities and the elimination of Syria as a sovereign state. Why is this planned to be done? The plan is multi-stage: it is planned to remove Syria as an ally of Iran, to strike at Iran's nuclear program, not looking back to Syria, then to suppress the movement "Hezbollah", a known Shiite movement in Lebanon. Both Iran and "Hezbollah" are opponents of Israel, that is, in such a way the purpose is to provide for the security of Israel.

In Iraq there has been the failure of the policy of the US, the Americans are being forced to leave, and, in fact, there's now a Shiite leadership there, which opposes the American presence and has friendly relations with Iran, that is, there is actually an alliance between Iraq and Iran. Eliminating this alliance is also used in this multi-step plan. The goals are Iran, "Hezbollah" and Iraq.”

Referring to external forces, Dolgov mentioned NATO, Persian Gulf countries and Turkey, stating on the matching their policies and goals: “The Gulf monarchies are looking at Iran as a potential threat. And that is, in general, justified, because Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 has pursued a policy of expansion of the Islamic Revolution, including and especially in the Gulf countries. To protect themselves from this expansion, the Gulf countries have the same strategy: removing Syria as an ally of Iran. Syria is an ally of Iran and has had friendly relations with Iran since the Iran-Iraq War or even before; the union is also confessional, as the Alawites, the ruling group in Syria, are a branch of Shiism. On the other hand, there are long-standing ties between Tehran and Syria. So, removing Syria, an ally of Iran, and then crushing Iran by the West is the main goal of the Persian Gulf monarchies.

Turkey has a policy of Islamization, not so obvious, but Islamization. I visited Turkey last year, and we saw this situation, saw the results of the anti-Syrian policy. This policy affects Turkey: economic ties between Turkey and Syria have been abolished, and this affects the strata which carried out these links, and business as well. There are growing movements of Turkish Alawites, who are against this policy. The Kurdish movements become stronger, including radical movements that carry out acts of terrorism in Turkey. Previously-suppressed terrorist groups are being revived in Turkey, including Armenian groups, which are now openly threatening Turkey that if Turkey invades Syria, in particular, Aleppo, where there are a sufficient number of Armenians, they will provoke terrorist acts, including at Turkish diplomatic missions, on the part of these organizations, that is, Turkey itself is to some extent a victim of this policy.

Why has Turkey pursued this policy? First, there is an ideological link between the Turkish leadership - people from "Muslim Brotherhood" – and Islamist groups in Syria. A major role is played by the "Muslim Brotherhood", there are other groups, Sunni Islamists who want to create an Islamic state in Syria. There were EuroNews reports and other journalists who showed videos of Syria conquered by Islamist groups and insurgents with the flags of "Al Qaeda" and the slogans of an Islamic state in Syria. This is the ideological background.

On the other hand, Turkey has pursued a policy of neo-Ottomanism, that is, revival of and nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire to some degree. We should not forget that Syria was for 400 years part of the Ottoman Empire, from the 16th century to the beginning of the 20th century, and this also plays a role. There is also a territorial issue between Syria and Turkey - it is Alexandretta; this is not the main reason for the conflict between Syria and Turkey, but it is also present. The next point: Turkey is positioning itself as a regional leader, and even, to some degree, a leader of the Islamic world, and here there is a confrontation with Iran as well. As I said, Syria is an ally of Iran, and the ambitious policy of Turkey would benefit from the weakening or dismemberment of Syria. Here's a situation around Syria, and here, if we talk about the past events of the deployment of Patriot systems at the Syrian-Turkish border - it really is one of the steps in the same direction. But Turkey fears starting real military action against Syria, because it is fraught with serious complications, as military intervention in Syria will lead to an explosion in the Middle East.”