Election in Armenia: a theatrical production staged in an empty room

 

Author: Susanna Petrosian, Yerevan, exclusively for VK

The additional 48-hour period provided on January 8 by the Armenian CEC to potential candidates who had not submitted all the documents required for the nomination by January 4, including receipts for the payment of a $20,000 deposit.

 

The struggle for the presidential elections is continued by eight candidates: the incumbent president, the leader of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), Serzh Sargsyan; the leader of the "Heritage" party, former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian; the chairman of the "Freedom" party, former Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan; the chairman of the "National Self-Determination" party, Paruyr Hayrikyan; the chairman of the" National Concord" party, Aram Harutyunyan; former Foreign Minister of Nagorno-Karabakh, a political adviser to the Refugees and International Law organization, Arman Melikyan; director of the Radio Eye company, Andreas Ghukasyan, and a non-party candidate, expert on epics Vartan Setrakian.

 

 

Initially there were 15 potential candidates, but 7 of them refused to run in the elections due to lack of funds. Among the candidates who have not submitted proof of deposit payments to the CEC on time is the member of the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), a lawyer of the European Court of Human Rights Rouben Aivazian. He said that a decision to withdraw from the election was made after a meeting with party members. 

 

 

The lack of necessary funds seems a rather confusing explanation. Does it mean that these presidential candidates only now realized the seriousness of the upcoming election campaign, which involves certainly finances as well?

 

 

In general, the process of nomination and registration resembles a theatrical performance in which everyone has a role to play. The lead character is Serzh Sargsyan.  His most important antagonists are the chairman of the "Heritage" party and the chairman of the "Freedom" party, Raffi Hovannisian and Grant Bagratyan. As in any theatrical production there are also actors with non-speaking roles, "candidates on duty." Among the latter are Aram Harutyunyan and Arman Melikyan. Aram Harutyunyan participated in the presidential elections in 2003 and 2008 and scored respectively 0.09% and 0.17%. Arman Melikyan ran for the presidency in 2008 and gained only 0.27%.

 

 

The participation of Paruyr Hayrikian in the race, a former Soviet dissident who has served 17 years in prisons, camps and exile for independent Armenia, a veteran of the political scene of Armenia, is aimed at making the theatrical production more significant and meaningful. Perhaps, the participation of a political scientist, director of the Radio Eye company Andreas Ghukasyan, is intended to bring "new blood" in the upcoming elections.

 

 

The projected rating has already been presented by a pro-governmental sociologist, director of the research center "Sociometer", Aharon Adibekyan. In Armenia, people distrust the polls, but they are even more suspicious of the numbers calculated by Adibekyan. The recent elections show that the results of elections rarely differ from the forecasts of the "Sociometer" center. 

Given the current balance of forces before the election, the vast majority of observers eliminate the possibility of a second round. However, the "Heritage" party and Raffi Hovannisian himself do not agree with that. "In the current circumstances, the protest vote is rather large due to severe socio-economic conditions and does not have much choice in terms of who to vote for. The most significant opposition candidate is Raffi Hovannisian," the secretary general of the "Heritage" party, Stepan Safarian, believes.

 

Perhaps, due to the lack of serious political competition, the state propaganda machine has put greater emphasis on the importance of such politicians like Hovannisian and Bagratyan. Hovannisian, despite having a generally positive image among the people, is not seen by the majority of voters as a strong competitor to the authorities. Largely, Hovannisian himself, who has demonstrated inconsistency in politics, is to blame. Thus, in September 2010 Hovhannisyan made a statement in which he said that as a supporter of international recognition of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire and the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh and of relations with Turkey without preconditions he was going to relinquish his seat. However, he never accomplished the required procedure. He is also known for unrealistic projects, such as the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia, despite the fact that the conflicting parties are negotiating on the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The competence of Grant Bagratyan, who headed the government of Armenia during the Karabakh war, is not questioned by anyone. However, he is not perceived by society as a possible president. As a rule, people who conducted "shock therapy", like Balcerowicz in Poland and Gaidar in Russia, do not return to politics.

To conclude, Hovannisian and Bagratyan are not perceived as serious competitors to Serzh Sargsyan, unlike Gagik Tsarukyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

 

"The political arena in Armenia is paralyzed. There is a paradoxical situation: representatives of major political forces, unlike former officials, are not taking part in the elections," a former MP, a member of the PAP, Vartan Bostanjyan, said.

 

 

Today, the authorities, who have removed the leaders of the PAP and the ANC from the game, find themselves in a difficult situation: they have to convince the public about the competitive nature of the elections. Having ignored the will of the people for such a long time, preventing any fair elections, the authorities and their elections are not ignored by the Armenian people.

 

 

In the theatrical production called "elections" there is a playwright, a director, main actors and actors with non-speaking roles, as well as a great number of theatere critics. The only component missing is the audience. However, given contemporary technology, this is not a problem and the necessary figure will always appear in the final report. Thus, according to the Office of Visas and Passports of the Armenian Police, the number of voters has increased. On the eve of the parliamentary elections, the number of registered voters was 2 million 485 thousand 844, and as of January 6th 2013 the tentative number of voters (in the period from May 6 to January 6) has increased by 25,053 people.