A shot at Armenian presidential candidate

By Vestnik Kavkaza

On January 31 in the center of Yerevan, Armenian presidential candidate Papuyr Hayrikyan received a gunshot wound to the shoulder. A criminal case has been instigated. However, the presidential elections in Armenia will be on time – February 18. Still it is not clear who and why attempted on Hayrikyan.

Alexander Iskandaryan, Caucasus Institute Director
A shot from a distance of 20-30 cm, a bullet 7.62cm in diameter hit the collarbone and ricocheted, as reported. In fact, you can break the collarbone with a fist. The bullet bounced off and went into soft tissue. When the gunman tried to take a second shot, 63-year-old Paruyr Hayrikyan, wounded by that time, was able to change the trajectory of the bullet, and the second shot missed its target. This is what happened according to the official information. The case is under investigation. So far it has not been completed and not all the circumstances have been cleared up, so it is difficult to make any other assumption.

None of the current presidential candidates or the political parties that they represent will profit from it at all. Paruyr Hayrikyan was not, shall we say, a favorite in the race. His perspective in any case did not reach first place. I think that he did not reach second, or third. Accordingly, no one wanted to eliminate him as a competitor… Accordingly, it was not a shot at the candidate Paruyr Hayrikian, it was not a shot in order to change the election results. It was a shot at the image, a shot, if you will, at a  national symbol, because Mr. Hayrikyan is a symbol of independence, he is a man who spent 18 years in camps for political reasons in the Soviet period, because he fought for this independence… They would not be as calm as they could have been, but the election results will not change.

Alexander Makarov, Director of the Armenian branch of the Institute of CIS
Indeed, it is unlikely that any one of the candidates profited from postponing the elections for 40 days or the new election campaign. Therefore, it is very unlikely that this shot was initiated by any of them. All candidates and, in fact, the whole of society has condemned the move, which could be regarded as a move against the state and a step against political stability.

Alexander Skakov, coordinator of the working group, Center for Central Asia, the Caucasus and Volga-Urals. Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS
Yes, in Armenia by and large it is not beneficial to anyone. Power does not profit from it because Armenian President Sargsyan wins in any case, it is all clear and understandable. There is a little nuance. The fact that he has no alternative raises questions, first of all in the West. That is, if he gains 70-75% of the vote, it will be too much. Therefore, it is in the interest of the existing government that he receives less votes - around 60% or so at most. So, adding a little to alternative candidates would be beneficial for the government. But not at this price. The price is too high. One can make it easier, make small postscripts so that an alternative candidate wins 2-3% more. It is not difficult, the technology exists.

… There are potential sponsors of the campaign, there are those who may potentially be unhappy that the elections have only one uncontested candidate. There are those who just want to disrupt the elections, nominate an alternative to be able to bet on this alternative, financially. These forces can be in Armenia and outside Armenia, in this case it does not matter, business has no borders, as we know…
If you take the outer factor, the President of Armenia Serge Sargsyan as the head of state was suitable both to Russia and the West. The criticism of the election by the West did not begin after the assassination attempt, but before that, when it became clear that there is no alternative candidate. Then there was intense criticism of Armenia. If more serious problems do not appear, the elections will be recognized as legitimate by all stakeholders, both in Armenia and in Russia and in the West.