German "Patriots" in Turkey

Author: Orkhan Sattarov, head of European office of VK

Bundeswehr soldiers serving the missile defense systems "Patriot" redeployed to Turkey took over their service in the city of Kahramanmaras a week ago. According to the official statement of NATO officials, the latest air defense systems near the Turkish-Syrian border are intended to protect Turkish territory from the missiles launched by government forces of Syria towards the border with Turkey.

Substantial forces of Syrian rebels are deployed in this area. This move by NATO was ambiguously perceived by Moscow: the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed concern that placing the "Patriot" system in Turkey can increase the risk of further destabilization in the region. Iran, the close ally of Syria, also reacted extremely negative to this step. The reaction by NATO Secretary General Rasmussen to signals from Moscow, in turn, was rather cold: he said that no one had the right to interfere in the internal processes of the alliance.

Fears of Moscow and Tehran are linked, however, not only and not so much to the threat of "further destabilization" in the region - particularly in Syria. In a country where with the involvement of external actors, including the Arab monarchies, Turkey, the United States and Iran, the flames of civil war are burning, one can hardly imagine a greater destabilization.

Another thing is that Russia and Iran do not believe in the sincerity of official statements by Turkey and its Western allies. A couple of missiles in border areas can hardly be a serious justification for the time-consuming and expensive transfer of air defense forces and several hundred soldiers from Germany to Turkey. Moscow and Tehran are rather concerned by the possibility of using "Patriot" against the Syrian air force, which remains out of reach for its militia. Recent action by NATO is not without reason considered Russia as a likely preparation for new practical steps to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In other words, the deployment of advanced air defense systems near the Turkish-Syrian border is a necessary practical measure of NATO, which provides the alliance an opportunity for further introduction of "no-fly zone 'over Syrian air.

Against this background, it may hardly seems coincidental that in Europe, with the filing of the chairman of the ruling CDU / CSU Volker Kauder, the theme of the introduction of "no fly zone" in Syria is newly arisen. Kauder said during his visit to Egypt that such a move would help in resolving the crisis - only military intervention is not enough and should be accompanied by a political strategy and widespread dialogue on all sides of the civil war. Kauder also welcomed the actions of the Israeli air force which destroyed a convoy with Syrian arms presumably intended for military Shiite movement "Hezbollah" during the bombing in the end of January. "Military intervention in this case has helped us, because the weapons will not be used", chairman of the CDU / CSU said.

The German Federal Government, however, extremely cautiously reacted to the statement by Volker Kauder. "The ban on flights over Syria was never discussed, and it is not planned to discuss it, if my memory does not fail me," - the Government Speaker George Shtrayter in Berlin told reporters. German Foreign Ministry also confirmed that "the issue of the introduction of a no-fly zone in Syria is not on the agenda in the European Union."

Recall that during the 49th Munich Security Conference, the proposal to introduce a no-fly zone in Syria was made by ex-presidential candidate, known for belonging to the camp of the "hawks," Republican Senator John McCain. The German "Patriot" systems would bring down the Syrian fighters to the city of Aleppo, the senator said.

However, the role that will be played in the region by the German "Patriots" deployed in Turkey depends on the will of the political, military and economic leader of the NATO - the United States, and therefore independent steps cannot be expected from the EU's involvement in the Middle East. If the former U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, like former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, advocated arming the Syrian rebels, the new team of President Barack Obama is more aloof to such ideas. At this stage, the current White House administration is not inclined to intervene directly in the Syrian conflict. However, if the U.S. will change its strategy on the Syrian uprising, there is no doubt that the German defense will play its role.