“There are no big disputes between the USA and Russia in our region”

Interview by Ramin Naziyev, Baku. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

The independent political analyst Ilgar Velizade told Vestnik Kavkaza about socio-political process of the last year in Azerbaijan.

- Were there any positive changes in relations between Azerbaijan and Iran?

- At the end of the year tension between Iran and Azerbaijan reduced due to the release of  two Azerbaijani poets, the visit of the vice-president of Iran in September and the visit of Iran’s President to the summit of the Organization of Economic Cooperation in October. Even though rumors appeared that Azerbaijan and Israel negotiate on giving military ranges to Israel in case of a war with Iran, it seems Iran doesn’t believe these rumors. There are certain trust principles between these countries, which haven’t been ruined.

- How did changes in the internal political atmosphere of Georgia influence relations between Tbilisi and Baku?

The recent visit by Premier Bidzina Ivanishvili to Azerbaijan showed that the processes didn’t influence our relations. However, the new government of Georgia and Ivanishvili himself made ambiguous statements ahead of the visit. Members of the Cabinet stated that it is necessary to open railway traffic between Georgia and Abkhazia. The news was accepted very positively by the Armenian side because a direct path from Armenia to Russia with all coming circumstances would be opened. However, later Paata Zakareshvilli, the minister of reintegration, disowned this statement and said it was only a suggestion, and the project was far away from implementation. Ivanishvili stated that the railroad Baku-Tbilisi-Kars should be inspected, and it caused a confused reaction of Baku. But he added that it was his personal opinion and the construction would be implemented in time.

- How will last year reelections of Putin and Obama influence policies of Russia and the USA in the South Caucasus?

- Putin’s political line toward the Caucasian states and other countries of the CIS is logical. I don’t think that Russia will break the logic in the near future. Regarding Barack Obama, last four years showed that the USA do not interfere into our internal political process actively. Washington tries to consider interests of important political players and not to conflict with these interests. I believe this policy will continue in next four years. Moreover, Obama stated at one of his visits to the countries of Southeast Asia that today a priority for American foreign policy is not the Middle East, but the countries of Asian and Pacific region. Azerbaijan and our whole region are not very interesting for the US. Azerbaijan is taking part in programs which correspond to Western interests – the Afghan transit, realization of the energy strategy of the West, including Europe. From this point of view, Azerbaijan's participation is welcomed. They don’t need anything more from us, and we won’t give them more. It meets our interests either. We cannot play an active role in the conflicts in Syria or the situation over Iran. Azerbaijan takes a certain place which is acceptable for both sides. The same thing is about Armenia and Georgia. The current administration of Obama doesn’t concentrate attention on Georgia’s membership in NATO. Thus, there are no big disputes between the USA and Russia on our region.

- What do you expect from 2013?

- 2013 is a year of presidential elections in Azerbaijan. It is the main factor in political and economic spheres. As for governmental priorities, the state budged 2013 was adopted, but there may be some changes in it in the middle of the year. Today the budget is thought to be deficit-low and realizable. This year stabilization of oil production is planned in the context of high oil prices, it guarantees revenues for the budget. We can say that 2013 won’t be a troublesome year. Governmental program will continue to be implemented. These are infrastructural projects, construction of the port Alyat; the railroad Baku-Tbilisi-Kars will probably be built by the end of the year; various transport projects within construction of the highway “Silk Path” will be realized. Improvement of communications in villages and towns is required in 2013.

As for new jobs, it depends on certain governmental structures and the macroeconomic situation. Azerbaijan is a sponsor of some countries today, for instance, Eastern Europe which gets credits. But foreign investments are flowing to Azerbaijan much slower. Everything demands on regulatory mechanisms which will be developed this year. If the government focuses on settlement investment tasks, economic indexes will be more favorable.