Azerbaijani president has officials under control

The presidential elections in Azerbaijan are going to be held in seven months.The majority of experts believe that there will be no real intrigue. No one seriously doubts that the ruling New Azerbaijan party's candidate, incumbent President Ilkham Aliyev, will win the polls. The current political elite has many more resources than its opponents. Among them are a strong leader, a financial basis, the administrative machine and favourable foreign powers.

The secular opposition is unable to nominate a single candidate, which is very propitious for the authorities. A possible boycott of the elections could be a real threat to the ruling elite, but such a scenario seems unlikely to be realised. For instance, the head of the Musavat party, Isa Gamgar, has already announced that he will take part in the elections.

The Islamist movement, suppressed by Azerbaijani law, even though it's supported by neighbouring Iran, seems too weak to enter politics. It has no single leader and doesn't play a serious role in the country's social life.

In fact, the situation is favourable for the current president to be successfully re-elected. Perhaps the only way opposition can achieve anything is if something goes wrong and the country is brought to a state of chaos. A social uprising similar to that of the Arab Spring is thus the most favourable scenario for the radical opposition, which doesn't care about all the challenges of such movements.

The end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013 was a hard time for Azerbaijan. A corruption scandal involving former rector of the Azerbaijani International University and the case of Gyular Akhmedova, a member of the ruling New Azerbaijan party, who tried to buy herself a place in the parliament, badly damaged he reputation of the current political elite. The first month of 2013 was marked by protest rallies in Baku. Even though the campaign was peaceful and the authorities did not suppress the movement, the whole idea of a mass social campaign was striking for the officials.

The biggest mass rally took place in the Ismailly district, where local residents burnt a car and a hotel allegedly owned by a local official's son. Thousands of protesters were pacified only with the help of internal military forces sent from Baku.

These events were celebrated as triumphs by the Azerbaijani opposition, which tried to use the opportunity to gain some political influence in the country. The radical opposition leaders tried to turn the January rallies into an even bigger mass protest campaign, but they didn't succeed and were persecuted by the authorities.

Opposition activists took part in the events in Ismailly, according to the prosecution, in order to incite a revolt there. Those activists claimed they were only trying acquaint themselves with the situation, but were arrested anyway.

Even though the opposition was in fact to the side of this social movement and could not bridle it, the authorities had to rethink the unfolding political process. The events in Ismailly were caused by the abuse of power by local officials, so the highest authorities had to interfere. The reaction of the Azerbaijani President was as harsh as possible.

Former member of parliament Gyular Akhmedova was arrested and this move showed that the authorities are capable of punishing their own supporters. The arrest sent a clear message that even those close to the political elite can be persecuted for their crimes.

After that the president ousted several local officials from the most uneasy regions of the republic. Amongst them was Nizami Aleklerov, whose son was responsible for the Ismailly crisis, who was sacked. His brother, Fizuli Aleklerov, the minister of labour and social insurance, is also expected to be fired soon. Member of parliament Zakhir Orudzh has already called upon the minister to resign voluntarily.

The measures taken by the president will evidently make him more popular among the Azerbaijani people. However, it seems like this course is more than simple campaigning, it probably shows that the authorities understand that all officials should be controlled and punished for misconduct. Especially with the elections approaching, when certain powers are trying to destabilize the political situation in the country.

Mikhail Belyayev. Exclusively to VK