Ersatz of civil war in Georgia. Part 2

Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Recently the prime minister, Bidzina Ivanishvili, issued the president of the country with an ultimatum: Mikhail Saakashvili should either openly support the constitutional reform initiated by the ruling coalition “Georgian Dream” or state that all efforts to find a compromise on the issue have failed. The point is in amendments to the Constitution, according to which President loses power of composing the government without agreement of the parliament.

The current constitutional model requires that Saakashvili can dismiss the government and even dissolve the parliament, composing his “own” Cabinet separately from the parliament. Georgian Dream proposes a new model: President can dissolve the parliament at any moment, but ahead of holding new parliamentary elections, Ivanishvili’s cabinet plays the role of the government.

It is essential for three reasons. Firstly, in Georgia, like in many countries of the post-soviet area, the ruling party which controls the government has advantages over rivals in the elections. Secondly, while Saakashvili has a theoretical opportunity to dissolve the parliament and compose “his” government, bureaucrats of the mid and minor level (including the regions) look at the head of the state with fear, and it prevents the government from providing all necessary transformations, from Ivanishvili’s point of view. Thirdly, while Saakashvili is President, the Georgian government cannot hope for a breakthrough in relations with Moscow. The Russian state will definitely avoid any decisions (for example, returning of Georgian products to the Russian market) which could be beneficial for Saakashvili in case of surprising changes. Moreover, Ivanishvili’s government cannot make real concessions to Moscow in the sphere of closer cooperation with the CIS.

Saakashvili and his team do not accept these initiatives for the reasons for which they are needed to Ivanishvili: such a reform turns President into a waxwork who cannot provide power in reality. Nevertheless, Saakshvili decided to make a concession and proposed his rival a new formula: “We agree with the constitutional reform, reduce President’s power, shift to the parliamentary-presidential model since spring, but only if all former officials get amnesty, i.e. cancelation of hundreds of criminal cases against activists of the presidential party, the United National Movement.”

Georgian Dream responded that it cannot pardon the former regime as its last-year election mottos were about reconstruction of justice. If the ruling coalition controlled 100 of 150 mandates in the parliament, they wouldn’t need Saakashvili’s agreement. However, they have no 100 MPs who are ready to vote for the amendments, and thus, they have to bargain. It would be naïve to think Saakashvili won’t ask anything in return.

After many days of thinking Saakashvili made a smart step: “There can be no amnesty for President, the chairman of the parliament, and ministers, but it must concern all other officials.”

The coalition replied: “We are ready to pardon everybody and adopt an amnesty law, but under the condition that all pardoned people won’t have a right to take any state positions during 5 years.”

It seems the goal of Ivanishvili and his supporters to eliminate Saakashvili’s party from the political map. Any party is viable if its members can hope for a career success. Altruists are typical for humanitarian organizations, rather than in parties which plan to get the power or return to it. Such a prohibition of taking any state positions can concern the most devoted, reliable, and experienced members of the UNM.

Of course President rejected the proposal, while Ivanishvili voiced threatening phrases on “historic responsibility”, “a heavy reaction of the society”, and “a court which will judge fairly all who are guilty.”

Destruction of the presidential party and taking away its any prospects for the future means “mopping-up” of the political field of the opposition. It seems Ivanishvili doesn’t think the presidential party ran out of a political potential. However, an attempt to destroy any alternative can lead to destabilization of the situation and a blast. Saakashvili knows a lot of ways to destroy fragile stability.