Last week in the South Caucasus (March 4 - 10)

Author: Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK

Last week was the "moment of truth" in the protracted history with the return of Georgian wine to the Russian market. It seems that the final obstacles will fall by the summer - "Khvanchkara" and "Kindzmarauli", now legally, will be on the shelves of Moscow stores.

Meanwhile, the main "taster" and "critic," Russia's chief doctor, Gennady Onishchenko, said that he had received an invitation to visit Georgia. "With regard to the specific date of the visit, I do not rule out that this might happen in the foreseeable short time" - Onishchenko announced on March 9. Invitation to visit Georgia was obtained during the visit to Moscow of the Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia Ilia II. The date of the visit, however, has not yet been announced, and, apparently, it will depend on the political situation in Georgia. And it moves along a complex trajectory.

Obviously, the meeting between the President and the Prime Minister did not give any real results. At the very least, the assessments of Ivanishvili were extremely reticent. "I have already reminded Saakashvili that the meeting took place at his initiative and asked him to articulate what he wanted to say, and in the end I made that conclusion. His first requirement was that I released the Georgian media from all the pressure. His second demand was the release of the court. And I did not understand the third one, but in the end we formulated that I should stop massive persecution and violence against the people", Ivanishvili told the media.

Failure of negotiations between the old and the new power, of course, leads to an increase in anxious expectations of the population of Georgia. Many residents are concerned about the prospect of the new phase of confrontation and riots in major cities. Bidzina Ivanishvili, in turn, assured the public that he was a personal guarantor of stability in Georgia and, at the same time, he expressed his conviction that the old president's team and the old order would not be able to return.

However, Saakashvili has a resource on which the Georgian Prime Minister cannot rely yet. This is the support for the positions of President of Georgia by influential European lobbyists. Last week, another proof of the "mobilization" of Saakashvili supporters was a letter signed by 23 members of the European Parliament to the Prime Minister of Georgia Bidzina Ivanishvili "Do not destroy the national dream of Georgia." As it was noted in the address of MEPs, the situation in Georgia becomes alarming. MEPs call on the Prime Minister of Georgia to stop putting pressure on the court. The letter was published by a member of the European People's Party, the Polish MEP Krzysztof Lisek on Twitter and his official web page.

 It becomes clear why Mikhail Saakashvili andd Bidzina Ivanishvili pay such serious attention to foreign visits, especially to meetings with the leadership of the region - this is also one of the tools to strengthen their own position on the domestic political scene. Another question is that, like in the case of known statements of the president of Georgia after the trip to Baku, some estimates voiced by Saakashvili create pain in the neck to the hospitable hosts and it is unknown how the involvement of Baku and Yerevan to the Georgian domestic political context contributes to the strengthening of bilateral relations.

Last week Defense Minister Alasania's visit to Yerevan was in the media spotlight. Minister, as expected, thundered toward the Russian military facilities on the territory of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but was extremely restrained in assessing regional significance of the Russian base in Gyumri. "We are convinced that the Armenian side will not allow touse the base against the interests of Georgia", head of the Defense Ministry said. This phrase became the subject of expert comments in Moscow, Yerevan, Baku, Tbilisi. Every analyst has read between the lines something new.

In Armenia, the most interesting things, it seems, are just beginning. Apparently, after the presidential campaign the race for prime minister started off. And we do not know if the current head of government would be able to keep his position. For example, the Armenian media launched the version of the backstage bargaining about another candidate - Karen Karapetian. "Hraparak" reports that the appointment of Karen Karapetyan to the post of prime minister is linked to Armenian-Russian negotiations on gas prices: "Authorized circles in the negotiations mentioned the condition that Karapetyan should return to Armenia and be appointed to the post of prime minister only if this helped to reduce gas prices.

Indeed, the visit of Serzh Sargsyan to Moscow may shed light on the future of bilateral relations not only in the military-political sphere, but also in terms of economic prospects of Armenia, which seem to be not too bright. It is not yet clear whether the talks will include the question of cooperation with the Eurasian integration project, but Putin's statement about the possibility of introduction of visa regime from 2015 to countries outside the Eurasian project should worry not only Uzbekistan and Moldova, but also Armenia. The reasons are obvious.

However, in the near future (May 5) Armenia will face new elections to the Council of Elders. It is not clear whether the Republicans will be able to win, especially considering the fact that the unexpected success of Hovannisian is still present. So far, the only known input data is that the list of the Republican Party in this election will be led by Yerevan Mayor Taron Margaryan. The "Prosperous Armenia" discussed the candidacy of Sedrak Kocharian, but on March 9, it was announced that the list is headed by former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian. Armenian National Congress will not take part in the elections.

As for Raffi Hovannisian, he continues to exist in a parallel universe. While the power lives according to a new political calendar, the leader of "Heritage" party still believes that the elections are completed. For example, representatives Hovannisian, filed lawsuit to the Constitutional Court of Armenia demanding "to invalidate the figures published by the CEC" and "to secure tangible results" of the elections. Press secretary of "Heritage" party Hovsep Khurshudyan clarified the situation: "The lawsuit has been filed because there are all the legal grounds for this and Raffi Hovannisian has said that he will fight legally. The police banned approaching to the building of the COP to the supporters of "Heritage" party, saying that they "may impede the normal operation of the Constitutional Court."

It is clear that Hovannisian will do everything to ensure that his electoral success acquired the "long-term character." But such a scheme of action is limited by time resources. Going beyond the election agenda is hardly possible for the leader of "Heritage". As it was rightly pointed out in an interview to VK by Armenian expert Harutyun Mesrobyan, "if the team of Hovannisian includes people who occupied since 1991 some key positions and made influencing political decisions, people used to working in the system every year becoming ineffective, it would mean the futility of the movement. While the team of Hovannisian is not formed, we cannot assess the prospects of recent protest process".

In Azerbaijan last week the most important event was the speech by the U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Richard Morningstar. The main thing was not what was said by the experienced diplomat but the fact that through him Washington once again outlined its interest in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. It remains to understand what the "new thing" of the White House exactly is. "I know there is frustration in the process of the Minsk Group, but I also want to ask the question: Is the format of the talks important? The really important point is the existence of the political will of the parties to reach a final settlement. In any situation constructive attitude to very complex issues must be shown", Morningstar said. As a whole, he said nothing essentially new. At least the good news is that Morningstar has publicly stated - the U.S. has no plans to deploy military bases in Azerbaijan. Of course, as it always happens in American politics, the options are possible, but it seems that the Ambassador this time was not disingenuous. There is a feeling that before the election in Iran the State Department is trying to vary its actions in the region.

But Tehran, meanwhile, feeling that the wind has changed, is trying to put pressure on its enemies - the U.S. and Israel. At least the statement of Ambassador of Iran to Azerbaijan was in the spirit of Soviet propaganda of the Andropov period, for example, the charges in the creation and funding of al-Qaeda. And the Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan said on March 6 that the Israeli media are trying to undermine the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations, exaggerating Azerbaijani relations with the "occupying regime of Jerusalem."

On the one hand, for Azerbaijan it is beneficial to be in the center of the intersection of interests of the leading regional and extra-regional forces - the room for maneuver is much wider. But, on the other hand, the growing information pressure before the presidential elections in Azerbaijan creates additional risks, which Baku, naturally, would like to avoid.