Last week in the South Caucasus (March 25-31)

Author: Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK

The political situation in Georgia during the past week has evolved in quite a stable way. The vote on the bill limiting the powers of the president partly lifted the accumulated tension in the Georgian political class.

Naturally, the supporters of Saakashvili are not happy, but judging by their reaction it is likely that the current president, even in his inner circle, is widely seen as a lame duck, and his entourage is seeking to ensure that, in sacrificing the political prospects of Saakashvili, they will retain the possibility of continuing the foreign policy course formed over the last few years.

This is also understood in Europe, at least by most MEPs, who generally reacted positively to the vote in the Georgian parliament, and perhaps for the first time in recent months criticism of Ivanishvili declined.

The main political forces of the country are preparing for elections in three majority-system districts, which will be held on April 27. We already know that they will be attended by the electoral bloc "Bidzina Ivanishvili - Georgian Dream" and the party of the United National Movement. The seats in parliament from majority-system districts in Nadzaladevi (Tbilisi), Baghdadi and Samtredia became vacant after lawmakers from these districts moved to the executive. It is likely that the elections on April 27 will be a kind of "test meter", reflecting the perception by the Georgian electorate of the fierce political struggle taking place in the upper echelons of power.

Meanwhile, the attention of the Georgian leadership remains focused on regional policy. Despite all the talk that Tbilisi is gradually lowering its priority relations with Yerevan, the past week has forced experts to adjust their forecasts on the subject.



In Batumi a trilateral meeting between the foreign ministers of Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan was held. Obviously, the special significance of this meeting was for the Azerbaijani side, which is concerned about the possible rapprochement between Georgia and Armenia, which would be reflected, above all, in the reality of the negotiating process over Nagorno-Karabakh. It is difficult to say whether those doubts had been dispelled up to the last meeting at the level of foreign ministers.

However, judging by the reaction of the Azerbaijani media, the government in Baku is generally satisfied with the rhetoric voiced at the talks with the foreign ministers of Turkey and Georgia. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said that "Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan have created a platform for cooperation in all areas and ensure the development of the region." According to him, this is a kind of message to Azerbaijan's neighbor, Armenia.



Another news of the week, this time in the Armenian media, became a message about cancelling the direct Yerevan – Istanbul flight from April 1, as well as the freezing of the project of the direct Van - Yerevan flight. Armenian experts have no doubt that Turkey took this step with a view to the reaction from their Azerbaijani partners. But then the question arises - why has Turkey suddenly changed its position, though a few days ago, Turkish officials assessed the Van-Yerevan flight as a "private initiative by a local company?"

Either Baku’s arguments were so convincing, and Turkey has dramatically changed the vector of the negotiating process under pressure from the Azerbaijani side, or this was no more than a trial balloon that Turkish diplomacy has used for its own purposes.



Meanwhile, between Georgia and Armenia there was another area of tension. The representative body of Akhalkalaki intends to apply to the Parliament on the ratification of the European Charter and providing regional status to the Armenian language. This decision provoked a strong reaction in Tbilisi and forced the Armenian Ambassador to comment in a conciliatory tone on the situation around the problem. "This is a domestic issue, which, of course, can have both its supporters and opponents. But the protest was not organized. And while this remains a purely domestic issue of Georgia, I will refrain from substantive comment,” Ambassador Hovhannes Manukyan said.



Meanwhile, the main opposition forces continue to prepare for the May elections to the Council of Elders. Apparently, the campaign promises to be hot. This is indicated by the slogans with which the representatives of the Republican Party appeal to their supporters. At the very least, the phrase "we will not surrender Yerevan" can be heard everywhere. According to local experts, during the City Council elections the situation may be different from the reality of the recently-concluded presidential campaign – there are more powerful players (PPA), and the agenda is quite different.

Local experts see the trend of "consolidation" of political forces on the eve of the May elections through the creation of electoral blocs such as "Hello Yerevan". But the main battle, as considered by many analysts, will unfold between the "Republicans" and "others".

As noted by a deputy of "Prosperous Armenia", Vardan Oskanian, "in case of the PAP's personal victory in these elections or joint victory with other forces in the political system for the first time a serious counterweight to the ruling party will be created." According to Oskanian, cooperation between "powerless" parties in these elections and their joint victory will create more opportunities for cooperation in the transfer of this cooperation to the country's parliament around implementing the national agenda