The South Caucasus and Central Asia: new strategies of partnership

Kristina Sukhopleshchenko, South Federal University, Rostov-on-Don. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Within the World Economic Forum in Baku, “The Strategic Dialogue on Future of the South Caucasus and Central Asia” a public opinion of participants on the future of the regions was conducted. It was actually devoted to the vision of an optimal structure of allied relations between countries of the region, considering the quickly changing international situation. 62.3% of participants of the forum voted for integration of regions; 22% stood for fragmentation (i.e. maintenance of status quo), 15.7% predicted polarization (which is close to confrontation).

Even though there were no representatives of Armenia and Iran in Azerbaijan’s capital, their presence in this case can be considered virtually real. Discussing the problems of this part of Eurasia, politicians and political economists couldn’t ignore geopolitical drift of the mentioned countries (as well as some other countries).

Summing up the essence and results of discussions at this forum and many other similar meetings, they can be focused on a simple idea: how can the system of allied relations be rebuilt under new conditions? And what should be taken as a fundament of allied relations?

We can ask ourselves: what has changed in recent times? Why should countries change their strategies as soon as possible, activating their diplomatic resources and the potential of top officials for settlement of the problems? In short, everything has changed. America has actually left (or is going to leave) the region. The whole real economy moved to the Asian-Pacific Region. China slowed down due to preparation to reforms. The project of “Big Middle East” is cowering and it is confirmed by two years of meaningless war in Syria. Russia has developed serious project activity on the Eurasian direction. At last it appeared that some political scientists consider the following option: Ottomans, Persians, and Russians are ready to consider the Caucasus and Central Asia as a zone of interests of “three great empires” (even though they are former empires) and do not let in “aliens” here: as if, we will deal with it by ourselves.

We can brush away from the last hypothesis, at the same time, we can follow political maneuvers of recent weeks.

However, let’s start from afar from the geographic point of view. On April 22 the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the USA Martin Dempsey clearly stated that American Armed Forces strived for improvement of relations with China within the course on shifting strategic priorities from the Middle East to the Asian-Pacific Region; the course is provided by Obama. His colleague, the head of the People’s Liberation Army of China Fang Fenghui presented a sanction apparently supported by the political authorities of China. Its essence is that “Chinese and American Armed Forces have to improve cooperation and build allied relations of a new type.”

A day before, on April 21 Israeli President Shimon Peres told the foreign minister of Azerbaijan ElmarMammadyarov who is officially visiting Tel Aviv at the moment that Israel considers Azerbaijan an important ally and emphasized a “unique geographic location” of the country. Mammadyarov responded that his country which is situated between Russia and Iran “had found itself in a complicated situation” and said that he saw huge opportunities in extension of ties with Israel. Foreign political scientists note that Azerbaijan could play an important role in case of a possible military operation against Iran.

A course on approaching Moscow and Yerevan with Tbilisi, undertaken by the new Georgian authorities is also can be viewed as a signal to renewal of allied ties in the South Caucasus. Armenia’s plans on improvement of economic cooperation caused appearance of such a point of view that further regional integration of the states is possible within the project of the Eurasian Economic Union initiated by Russia. In a prospect it can encourage elimination of the European-Atlantic world from the region and complete strengthening of Russia’s position in the South Caucasus and the whole post-Soviet space.

Let’s remember that in late 2012 the memorandum on establishing of the transport corridor Europe - the Caucasus – Asia between Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Georgia. It requires common transit rates which are thought to be lower than rates of the main competitor – Russian transit ways – by 10-13%. This corridor will be the shortest and the cheapest way of cargo transporting from the Asian-Pacific Region to Europe, as well as a serious strike on Russia, Armenia, and Iran.

Thus, searching for strategic alternatives is conducted on many directions. But one thing remains. Russia’s long-term interests still include striving for having stable states with developing economy as the South Caucasus neighbors. It will provide national security of Russia itself and security of the region.