“Manageable chaos” transformed into unmanageable chaos

By Vestnik Kavkaza

The State Secretary of the US, John Kerry, will visit Moscow on May 7-8. He plans to discuss the problems of Syria and Iran with the Russian authorities. Recently, the American senator Lindsey Graham has stated that Washington’s inaction toward the situation with using chemical armaments in Syria can lead to serious consequences. “If we are hesitative toward Syria, we will have a war against Iran. Tehran will interpret American hesitation toward Syria as a sign that the US does not treat the Iranian nuclear program seriously,” Graham thinks.

Meanwhile, Iran is already living under huge pressure from the Western countries. Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad believes that his country is a guarantor of stability in the region and says that a source of instability in the Persian Gulf is “the military presence of foreign forces.”

Stanislav Ivanov, expert of the Scientific Board under the Security Council of Russia, told Vestnik Kavkaza that it is profitable to the US and the West to use the monarchies of the Gulf as the majority in Islam, because Sunni are the majority, to limit the influence of Iran. “The Cold War is over, but the West and the USA cannot live without confrontation. On the other hand, as I said, they need an arms race, they need to sell their weapons somehow. Thirdly, they need to justify their military presence. Fourthly, they need to show themselves to be world leaders against the outcast. In this case Iran is the outcast. The next one will be North Korea. Tensions between the Sunni and Shias were used as the basis of the confrontation in the region,” the Russian expert believes.

“It is a strategic region. All the communications, transport... This is the center of world civilization," Ivanov said.

Ivanov thinks that there was an attempt to create manageable chaos by the US and the West. “But, unfortunately, it turned into unmanageable chaos. This is a result of the “Arab spring”. I believe that the events that we call “Arab spring” continue both geographically – it spreads and more countries get involved – and in depth. At the first stage the elites were changed – the post-monarchic, post-colonial regimes were replaced with modern de facto islamist radical regimes. Again, it turned out differently from how the Americans imagined. Radical young groups came to power, they want abrupt changes, but not according the Western model, but in keeping the traditional values.  Iran also is one of these countries that protect not only Islamic values, but also the values of the so-called “Third World”.”

Ivanov recently has been studying the problem of the drug business. “Drugs are spread across the world. Afghan drugs go to the US and to Europe, their stream has flooded Russia and the post-Soviet space. The UN admitted in its report that Iran on its border removes 30-35% of the Afghan drug traffic. They have a very strict punishments, including death, and preventative measures in family and state education and anti-drug propaganda.  There are 6 camps to re-educate drug-addicts. They have forced treatment. As a result, drugs do not threaten national security in their country. Iran is a shield from Afghan drugs for Russia and Europe, while our Viktor Ivanov, Head of the Federal Service for Drug Control, admits that we can stop only 4% of drugs coming from Afghanistan. Iran is our neighbor in the Caspian Sea. The situation in Transcaucasia and Central Asia, on our borders depends on Iran. The experience of two wars in Chechnya showed that no militant from Afghanistan or Pakistan came to Chechnya. Iran played the role of a reliable barrier and partner of Russia. We need to respect it and support it in a difficult moment. I think that the Iranian people will appreciate and understand this,” Ivanov emphasizes.