Vladimir Sazhin: “Fundamental changes in the relations between Iran and the countries of the CIS are not expected”

By Vestnik Kavkaza

The political analyst Vladimir Sazhin gave his prediction on the eve of the presidential elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran and told Vestnik Kavkaza about the relationship between Iran with a new president and the countries of the CIS.

According to Vladimir Sazhin, predicting elections in Iran is very difficult. Almost all analysts, for example in 2005, made a mistake, and then Ahmadinejad defeated, so to speak, the guru of Iranian politics, Ayatollah Rafsanjani. “Therefore, it is difficult to predict, but I think three candidates are most likely to win - these are Ghalibaf, Rouhani and Jalili. Of course, there will be a second round, there all will be settled. Jalili is, in general, the nominee and the person who is supported by, although he denies it, Rahbar Ayatollah Khamenei, so in this regard the administrative chance is present. But it is too early to guess.”

The Russian expert thinks that the new president won’t change the relations between Iran and the countries of the CIS. According to him, there will be some nuances depending on who will be president. “Iran's relations with the countries of Central Asia, the countries of the Caucasus, in general, were not bad. Problems, of course, existed. So, of course, work for a new candidate would be great - both in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia. But I cannot see fundamental changes in Iranian foreign policy under any president.

Of course, some emphasis will be placed, because now Iran's position is very difficult - domestic political, domestic economic, foreign economic and foreign political positions. Therefore, the work for the new president will be very hard. And, depending on who this president is, I emphasize once again, no fundamental changes will occur, but he will just have to address these issues. And on this, in general, the fate of the Islamic Republic of Iran will depend,” Vladimir Sazhin concluded.