Elections in Iran: The West's big hopes and Israel’s fears

Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza

The victory of 64-year old moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani from the reformers’ camp in the presidential elections of Iran gave the Western countries hope for progress in key issues of the Middle East region.

Rouhani won in the first round of the presidential elections. He is thought to be a “moderate Islamist” (considering the religious situation in Iran). The victory was unexpected. In the context of strict sanctions against Iran, the majority of experts predicted the success of more conservative candidates. Moreover, the trend showed itself in the last parliamentary elections in the IRI. Experts were sure that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Tehran’s mayor, would win the elections or Said Jalili, the main “nuclear negotiator” of the country.

In the West, Hassan Rouhani’s victory was accepted joyfully. There is an opinion that appearance of a more moderate politician than Mahmud Ahmadinejad in the Iranian leadership can encourage finding a way out of the deadlock in the relations with Iran. Furthermore, scandalous statements by Mahmud Ahmadinejad gave strong arguments to Israeli diplomacy which successfully used the topic of “inadequacy” and “unpredictability” of the Tehran regime lobbied strict sanctions against Iranians.

Hassan Rouhani who got PhD in Glasgow Caledonian University and speaks English, French, German, Russian, and Arabic is considered in a different light. Unlike his predecessor, he is a “handshakeable figure” for the West.

The supreme representative of the EU on foreign affairs and policy, Catherine Ashton was quick to send congratulations to the new Iranian president. “The Iranian people chose a new president in elections of June 14th. The announced results confirm that the Iranians decided to trust Hassan Rouhani to rule Iran during next four years. I wish Mr. Rouhani all the best in composing a new government and taking his new duties. I intend to work with the new Iranian leadership for settling the nuclear problem as soon as possible,” Catherine Ashton stated on June 16th.

A positive signal was sent to Tehran from Washington too: Barack Obama’s administration confirmed its intention to start direct negotiations with the new Iranian government about the nuclear program of Iran.

The Iranian president also stated about his interest in restoration of relations with the Western countries. “Iran has nothing to hide. However, to continue development of the Iranian nuclear program, we should reach a consensus inside the country and restore friendly relations and mutual understanding at the international level. Only a dialogue will do,” Rouhani said during his presidential campaign. After his victory Rouhani made a kind of prediction that in the nearest future the EU would make serious steps toward Iran. It is not absolutely clear what Iranian President exactly meant; however, it will most probably concern partial elimination of the EU’s sanctions against Iran.

Of course, we shouldn’t exaggerate Hassan Rouhani’s role, as well as the role of any other Iranian president. In the end, the main “puppet player” of the Islamic Republic is Supreme Ayatollah Ali Hamenei. He determines the Iranian policy in the sphere of the nuclear program and the Syrian conflict, as well as the internal policy. In addition, Mahmud Ahmadinejad was the only president of the IRI in its history, who dared to compete with the cleric elite. He tried to weaken religious influence on the state structure, which led to a long conflict with Ayatollah Hamenei.

Hassan Rouhani, unlike his predecessor, is a representative of the cleric elite, despite his “moderation.” We will see no deep reforms of the current political system.

On the other hand, a new person as a new president can lead to “reset” of relations between Washington, Brussels, and Tehran. However, here are difficulties as well: it would be naïve to think that the Iranians would deny Bashar Assad in Syria which is called “the external front line” of Iran. This is a serious obstacle on the way of approaching between Iran and the West.

Tel Aviv treats skeptically the prospect of changes in the traditional foreign political line of Iran. Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu warned the international community that it would be worthless to hope for Hassan Rouhani. Israeli fears are understandable: while the world is enthusiastic about the victory of the moderate candidate in Iran, the Iranian regime could use this time for creating nuclear armament.