Pre-election summer in Georgia

Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

The presidential campaign is gathering pace in Georgia, even though the current head of the state hasn’t determined a date for the elections yet. According to the constitution, elections should take place in October of “an election year”, i.e. Mikhail Saakashvili can choose any day from the 1st to 31st of October. Many people suggest that the president will linger making the decision and determine the date on one of last days of October. There are several reasons for this.

Firstly, settlement of the Election Day will mean “the beginning of the end” for Saakashvili. It is mentally difficult for him to make the decision. He has time: the president has to sign the order no later than on August 1st. Moreover, according to many experts, when time is up, he will try to prolong his duties by setting the elections for the end of October – a new president will assume office only on the 21st day after the elections, so, the former president will maintain his position till the end of November.

It is important for his team. Today Georgia experiences scandalous trials over the president’s supporters. His closest ally and friend, the former Internal Minister Vano Merabishvili, has been arrested. As for the president, he will have a last opportunity to influence the trial and pardon Merabishvili, as well as many other former officials who were arrested by the new authorities. Vano Merabishvili is the secretary general of the presidential party the United National Movement. And the party considers him as one of its presidential candidates.

The UNM intends to hold primaries, and Merabishvili will take part in them. In fact he has no chances in the presidential elections, and he wouldn’t have any chances even without the arrest because Merabishvili is not popular among the population.

The worse thing is that his image ruined by the scandal over the torture of prisoners and other outrageous methods of getting necessary evidence from suspects. However, participation of Merabishvili in the primaries enables the UNM to draw attention of Western partners to “Merabishvili’s case” and constantly discuss the issue on European platforms. Probably, in the end “Merabishvili, martyr of the regime” will be chosen a presidential candidate; and even though the Georgian laws don’t require releasing “a candidate on trial” during elections, the situation will look very ugly from the European point of view.

The candidate from the ruling party has already been chosen. It is the Minister of Education and Sciency, philosopher Georgy Margvelashvili. At his first press-conference he honestly said that his only resource is the support of Georgian Dream and personally Premier Bidzina Ivanishvili. However, the head of the sociological service “Gorbi” Merab Pachulia thinks that “this resource can be sufficient for a victory in the elections.” Plus, the ruling team has huge financial and administrative opportunities. Margvelashvili permanently states that he has no intention to correct the internal policy by Bidzina Ivanishvili; he agrees to be Premier’s shadow during five years of presidency.

The only real rival for Georgian Dream’s candidate could be the former speaker of the parliament Nino Burdzhanadze. She is actively playing “the pro-Russian card”, dimly hinting that when she is elected the president, she will restore diplomatic relations with Russia and correct the course for joining NATO. At the same time, Burdzhanadze succeeds using real trends in the society’s attitudes. As the elections are coming, Nino Burdzhanadze is making more and more statements on tossing around of the ruling team. She says that Dream is not consistent in fulfilling announced targets on “restoration of relations with Russia.”

So, the best result for the presidential party would be second place, but it would be a huge defeat for Nino Burdzhanadze. Actually she wants to fight against Saakashvili and his team for the second place to remain in a good position in Georgian politics. Nino still has a chance to fight even for a victory, if the disappointment in the Dream continues to grow.