Alexei Malashenko: “Syria is a global problem for Russia”

By Vestnik Kavkaza

On June 30th, it will be a year since Muhammad Mursi became President of Egypt. Massive protests against the Muslim Brotherhood are planned on this day. In this context, the war in Syria demonstrates the worst scenario of developments. The expert of the Moscow Carnegie Center, Alexei Malashenko, commented on the situation in Syria and the Middle East. Russia has key interests in the region, and Syria is its long-standing and reliable ally. The expert believes that Russia and the U.S. will seek ways for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, but did not rule out the possibility of a military conflict.

“If we look at the Middle East, country by country, Russia has fewer and fewer thing to worry about. Because economic ties are incomparable to the Soviet ones, military ties are incomparable to the Soviet, there is no more or less similar ideological orientation any more - it's a completely different situation. Russia is trying to define its niche in the Middle East, as Russia, and not as the successor to the Soviet Union. As soon as Russia starts to operate, the Kremlin, on the assumption "and remember how it was before, what we were," it becomes embarrassing. And by the way, why is the Russian position on Syria is so painfu?. Because Syria is the last state, the last regime, which operates on long-standing relationships. For Russia, Syria is not a Middle Eastern problem, it is a global problem. It's the last place in the Middle East, where the Kremlin feels like a great power, and they will fight to the end. They will seek an agreement, supply weapons. Once there is no Bashar, show me another country ready to embrace and kiss Moscow? None. Even Algeria, you know, there's a big problem with the military, and with the gas, and so on ... Where is Gaddafi? Where is Saddam Hussein? So psychologically - this is the first reason. Rather, the second. And here again, it is a global problem for Russia,” the expert thinks.

According to him, in general the situation is indeed paradoxical. “I have a feeling that they begin, the Americans and in Europe, I mean not to mention Russians, to think about what will happen afterwards. Because in the eyes of the people who give advice to Obama, and who comment on what is going on, everything that will come after, more and more looks like some sort of apocalypse. Moreover, about a month and a half ago, the idea appeared that may be Bashar is not the worst thing there can be. But Bashar also started to over-play. He's so stubborn, and he does not listen to what he others say, especially after the recent victories, that it is very difficult to deal with him. Do you think that Russians are not trying to somehow suppress him? No, it does not work. There is a variety of factors that interact with each other and at the same time contradict each other. The conclusion? I don't want to think, that what I'm going to say, is going to happen. This is a military solution. A very sad decision. If only this is possible, it is a pity. But Moscow and the Americans, despite all the controversy, will try to push for a diplomatic solution until the very last moment,” Alexei Malashenko believes.

As for the results of the Muslim Brotherhood’s ruling in Egypt, the expert of the Moscow Carnegie Center says that “everything that started in Tunisia and later in Egypt, Syria, and so on appeared to be unexpected. We remember the comments: it is an orange revolution; it is absolute democracy. Initially they said: there is nothing in common with Islam; look at young people who hanging out on Tahrir and Tunisia. People who professionally dealt with Islam and the Middle East said that it would end with Islam. When at the very beginning they said that the Muslim Brothers would lead Egypt, people laughed: the Muslim Brotherhood wouldn’t do it; it’s not an insane house! There were no certain predictions, or they’ve all gone into sand. But later it became obvious that the revolution would be endless, that Mursi would be doomed for the current situation. They even stated rough terms of his ruling – a year or a half and a year. We are marking a year. I believe the happening developments are inevitable. It couldn’t be different. Nobody can settle economic problems in a year – neither Lenin nor the Prophet Muhammad nor Mursi. It was naïve to count on it. Expectations were huge: the Muslim Brotherhood was elected, they were moderate, they could expect the Western support, look how wonderful could it be! But it was obvious a man without experience couldn’t solve huge political troubles. Economic reforms should be provided in a different way. When it happened, surprised Americans promised $1 billion. But what does $1 billion mean for Egypt? Even billions brought by citizens from the Persian Gulf are not a way out. Of course Mursi can be blamed for it, but it is his disaster. It doesn’t’ matter who would come – the end would be the same. The question is in worsening the situation and growing resistance.

I tell you these or those – they both don’t care about the constitution. When people stood against Mubarak, nobody thought about the constitution. I don’t want to make predictions, but maybe the army would say its powerful word. It seems they can agree with Mursi. But the question is what army? What is the Egyptian army today? Are there people who play their own game and want to step back a bit? Some people like to compare them with the Turkish military; I wouldn’t do it. Is this an army of not generals, but colonels and majors who picked Islamization up? These people will support Mursi, moving toward further Islamization,” Alexei Malashenko concluded.