Armenian opposition: possibility of tactical alliance - 1

Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK

Recently, the system of the Armenian authorities has been galvanized by a row concerning the registration of the company in an offshore zone in Cyprus in the name of Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan, as well as facts relating to the disclosure of abuse by the government, which is reflected in a report by the Control Chamber. (See “Armenia: the principle of the "weak link"). These events have caused great public interest and could not help affecting the processes within the government. It can be seen that behind the outward calm and unity of the government there is tension that takes both explicit (in the form of a statement by speaker Hovik Abrahamian, who accused the government of robbery) and latent forms. In particular, some members of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) are now dissatisfied with the fact that an utterly discredited prime minister remains in the government, weakening the regime.

At the same time, the opposition feels quite confident. If we examine the parliamentary activities of representatives of parties like the ARF, the "Prosperous Armenia Party" (PAP) and the "Armenian National Congress” (ANC) during the last year, we can see that these forces acted with common positions on critical issues such as the government's program, the draft state budget and setting up a temporary committee of the National Assembly on the events of March 1, 2003. MPs from the three factions showed rare unanimity on the need for the provision by the parliament as a political body of a political, not a legal, assessment of the events of March 1. Such a level of parliamentary cooperation between the opposition forces of Armenia was seen only in the first half of the 1990s.

Against the backdrop of the deteriorating socio-economic status, the complete inactivity of the authorities and the impoverishment of the masses and migration, in Armenia the opposition is ready to cooperate in implementing the most important political, economic and legal reforms, and most importantly – is ready to cooperate in the issue of a change of power.

The ANC, PA and ARF are not satisfied with the policy of the authorities for various reasons, but there is one important fact - the interests of these forces are identical on the question related to prompting the internal order in the country, especially the radical political reforms that would make Armenia politically and economically freer. Opposition members are aware that monopoly and corruption stifle the country's economy, and to change the situation for the better real reforms are needed, but their implementation under the current regime, which only declares the need for reform, is impossible.

We should note that the ANC and ARF, with great controversy in the past amounting to hostility, have managed to develop cooperation for the sake of change.

The question of a possible merger of the opposition is still relevant. Some Republicans, as well as state-controlled experts, are trying to speculate about the fact that the opposition parties did not combine into a single unit in the parliamentary elections of 2012. This fact is being represented as a sign of the weakness and failure of the Armenian opposition.

To understand whether a united opposition is possible, we should consider the following fact: there will never be a full merger between them, because the ANC, PAP and ARF represent different political niches. In particular, the ARF is a socialist party, and the ideology of the ANC is social liberalism. The PAP does not have any clearly-defined ideology, but judging by the applications made by the party functionaries, it can be assumed that the PAP expects serious internal party reform, and the party will be ideological and, most likely, left-wing, because the representatives of the PAP focus on social issues.

To be continued