Armenian opposition: possibility of a tactical alliance - 2

Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

See Part-1 http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/42636.html

ANC, Prosperous Armenia, and Dashnaktsutyun cannot be strategic allies, but they can be tactical partners. These forces are hardly likely to take part in the parliamentary elections on a common list, even though cooperation in the sphere of election control is quite possible; moreover, there are certain examples.

The problem of a possible consolidation of the ANC and Prosperous Armenia, between two prominent leaders – the first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan and oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, is the most discussed issue in the Armenian politic sphere.

The political interests of PA’s leader are based on his economic interests. Tsarukyan strives for legalization of his capital, however, under the current authorities, this is impossible. The system which was formed in the country doesn’t satisfy him and, as owner of a huge amount of capital, Tsarukyan can achieve his main goal if he implements one of two possible options.

The first option is that Tsarukyan encourages the coming to office of his man, who won’t change the current oligarchic system. However, in this case there will be no real legalization, i.e. Tsarukyan will still depend on the authorities. The second option is that Tsarukyan stands for radical political and economic changes which will lead to elimination of the current system. In this case he could legalize his property, whoever rules the country.

The second option can be supported by the ANC. The ANC doesn’t consider Tsarukyan’s capital to be an object for repressions. ANC representatives believe that the capital which was accumulated, including due to ambiguous deals, should be legalized within the package of the “100 Steps” reforms which were developed by the force in 2010. It seems Tsarukyan is satisfied with the program. Thus, the second option requires that Prosperous Armenia and the ANC have common ground in the political arena.

The possible tactical union between Ter-Petrosyan and Tsarukyan could be confirmed by the ANC’s support of Tsarukyan as a presidential candidate; at least this possibility was discussed in November and December of 2012. For instance, the ANC could significantly support Tsarukyan in Yerevan. However, the developments changed, and the leader of PA rejected being a presidential candidate.

At the same time, it doesn’t mean that such a union is impossible in the future, i.e. PA and the ANC can establish a tactical union for fighting to change the power. Probably they will manage to present a common presidential candidate.