“European” Armenia: view from Yerevan

David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Prospects of initialing of the Associative Treaty and the DCFTA Agreement between Armenia and the EU in November at the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership become real. At least, it is confirmed by recent events in foreign and internal political life of Armenia.

The planned initialling of the documents has been discussed for a long time. However, the first real step by made by Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, Stefan Fule, who said that Brussels expected the initialling of two mentioned documents with Armenia at the coming summit of the EU. However, Fule noted that ahead of this Armenia had to conduct internal reforms which would be a condition for initialling the Associative Treaty.

Considering the specific nature of Armenian policy, there is no guarantee that the current Armenian authorities will manage to satisfy European requirements which are necessary for the preliminary signing of the Vilnius agreements not only till November, but at any time. These are the requirements: democratization, protection of human rights, involvement of civil society in the political life of the country. The key problem is not that the Armenian authorities don't have enough time. If Yerevan and Brussels had the political will, the problem of initialling the document would be purely technical. However, the Armenian leadership has already stated its intention to achieve initialling of the Associative Treaty in November 2013, even though the schedule requires 2014.

Yerevan has enthusiastic supporters in this undertaking – first of all Poland, which the President of Armenia visited recently. Poland supervises the process of integration of post-Soviet states into the EU. First of all, this concerns Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia – members of the Eastern Partnership. Thus, the visit by Serge Sargsyan to Poland seems significant for prospects of signing the Associative Treaty with the European Union.

Yerevan’s desire to integrate into Europe and the dubious devotedness of the Republic Party of Armenia to European values are based not on strong will, or certain state interests. It is a kind of a chastity belt put on the ruling party of Armenia by the West. The belt’s rings are recognitions of the results of almost all elections in Armenia of recent years by Europe, when the republicans permanently won.

Today the rings are quite strong. This is confirmed by statements of Western diplomats, who are beginning to call bread bread. The Western diplomatic missions directly make Yerevan choose between European integration and the Eurasian integration supported by Russia. The fact that the West is showing its hand means that an initialling in Vilnius is inevitable.

Statements that Armenia has chosen the European path and Yerevan and Moscow have don't  trust each other anymore are far from reality. Armenian-Russian relations should be considered at several levels. Tension is really present, but only in the mass media, expert circles, and Internet blogs. It is absent at the official level. There is no problem of a tough choice between Russia and Europe for Armenia, considering the fact that Europe has no leverages of pressure on Armenia, unlike Russia, which is militarily present in the region and the country. Europe cannot provide security to Armenia which would be similar to Russia’s. So the Europeans have no such goals.

Thus, there is no choice between Russia and Europe in Armenia. Yerevan will initial the Associative Treaty and the DCFTA Agreement with the EU only because it is a part of a bigger game, greater internal and foreign political processes, the big politics which is beyond relations with Armenia. The majority of members of the Eastern Partnership, including Armenia, are not ready for the program. It can lead to a delay in signing.