Might a rebellion turn into a revolution?

David Stepanyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK

Taking place in Yerevan on the initiative of the civil society since July 20, the action against the increase in transportation tariffs by 50% is gradually laying the foundation for much more serious actions. Despite the concession of the city authorities, which abolished their own decision and returned the 100-dram tariff for transport, protesters were not only outraged but also began to demand the resignation of Mayor Taron Margaryan, and the situation is now aggravated day by day.

Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisian described the rise of the protest movement in Yerevan as a sign of a dynamic civil society. However, judging by the reaction of the police, not everyone agrees with the prime minister. On August 1, members of the youth movement attempted to set a tent in front of the City Hall for those who conducted picket, but the police did not allow it, and as a result of clashes with activists a woman was trampled, and a member of the movement was arrested. The number of police officers who cordoned off the city hall building was several times higher than the number of protesters. It seems that the authorities are worried that the social revolt can be transformed into the deeper processes that can lead to a revolution, and today the only deterrent of these processes is the repressive apparatus of the police, which in recent days, using legal and illegal methods, are trying to suppress the movement.

As for the fact that the revolt could turn into a revolution, not only the authorities, but also the opposition camp which still includes the parliamentary opposition prefer to keep quiet about this. The perseverance of the police fighting against the tents suggests that the Republican Party of Armenia and President Serzh Sargsyan’s administration understand that the installation of a tent can lead to tent camp in front of City Hall. The authorities and surrounding minions remember quite well what the appearance of the tent city in Freedom Square on the eve of the March 1 events caused. In 2008, the "cost" was ten victims who have been the cost of confrontation with the authorities, and the great question is what victims the emergence of a new "campus" near City Hall in 2013 can cause. The authorities still have not “digested” the death of ten citizens of Armenia, and new victims today are not needed.

Tents near the walls of City Hall may initiate an uncontrolled revolution, which in a few days will sweep the current regime. This lack of control disturbs the authorities, since an "agreement" with the youth will be much more difficult than with the parliamentary opposition. However, it seems that the government still does not intend to drop the opposition off. This is evidenced by the recent statements of certain political forces of an intent to hold protest actions "against the authorities." Also there have been calls on the pro-government TV channels and media about the need for "political forces and civil society to abandon their ambitions, sit down at a round table and make a fateful decision for Armenia." Obviously, without seeing the possibility of "agreeing" with the youth, the power hopes to do this through law enforcement agencies. These in turn are still hoping to “betray” the power, leading the protesting youth, who on their shoulders will let them enter the presidential palace, opening access to the feeder for which they have been languishing for a long time.

However, the main thing in all this is not the reaction or expectations of the authorities or "the opposition". Both have long been discredited in the eyes of the public due to their tractability, lies and lust to keep their positions and get to the coveted bowl. The main thing is that the current youth movement in Armenia may lead to fundamental changes in the formal independence of the country in which there is no government, political system, its own thoughts and laws. And the movement "We pay 100 drams" has created an atmosphere that reflects the true people of Armenia. This is Armenia of early 1990s, when people, despite the cold and hunger, smiled at each other. In late July, the propertied section of society and known entertainers for the first time supported the protesters. Car owners have started to openly pick up for free the people unwilling to pay 150 drams for public transport. The result is obvious - the cohesion and mutual support of the protesters gave the first results – the City Hall decision was reversed. The wariness of young people to the political parties and the reluctance to leave the "battlefield” indicates the understanding of the situation, which in turn promises some prospects to the youth movement. And all of this together gives the youth movement prospects to acquire the power for radical changes in the country, not becoming a plaything in the hands of the government or pseudo-opposition.

Now the main thing for the society is the duration and perpetuityof protests. The key to their success is isolation from the processes of political forces. The people taking the careless clerk's hand are the best guarantee of a relative degree of democracy. And no America and no Europe could provide that democracy to Armenia.