Experts predict rise of dollar value to 36-37 rubles

Yakov Mirkin, head of the Committee for Financial Markets and Credit Organizations of the Russian trade and Industry Chamber, Mikhail Khazin, President of Neokon, Professor Natalya Volchkova of the Russian Economic School, Maksim Petronevich, Chief Expert of the Center for Economic Forecasts, an Assistant Professor of the National Research University of the Higher School of Economics, Maksim Safonov, an Assistant Professor of the Subdepartment for Finances, Money Circulation and Credit of the Faculty for Finances and Banking of the Presidential RANEPA, have discussed prospects of the Russian currency.

Mirkin said that Russia was actively receiving capital from the US, France and Germany, finances from BRIC, excluding China, and was transferring $50-60 billion abroad every year, draining the national economy. He emphasized that the ruble was overvalued and its weakening was not bad. The expert does not expect devaluation of 30%. The currency rate may be affected by recession in developing states, such as India. Mirkin predicts the dollar value to reach 36-37 rubles.

Volchkova said that the ruble was weakened by inflation. She expects the rate to reach a maximum of 36 rubles per $1. Concerning the price of 44 rubles per euro, she add that it was just a reflection of the euro-to-dollar ratio.

Petronevich said that there would be no shocking devaluation of the ruble as happened 15 years ago. The highest demand for the currency will visible in summer and December. The prices for hydrocarbons dropped. He noted that direct foreign investments totaled only 1.5% of the Russian GDP..

Safonov expects the currency rate to total 36-37 rubles per $1.

Khazin agrees with the forecasts and believes that the government wanted to repeat the “trick” of 1998 to boost economic growth. He emphasized that the country needed a displacement of import and radical economic reforms to prevent rising prices for food and fuel. The expert stressed that Russia could not benefit from anything other than petroleum. The biggest impact was joining the WTO, he said. The official said that devaluation of national currency was normal and there will be no collapse.