CSTO extends specialization

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Since the moment of signing the Cooperation Security Treaty, the CSTO has been presented as a military political coalition. However, today the Analysis Association of the CSTO thinks that the sphere of its activity should be extended. “We follow the world trends on protection of national shrines, national spiritual values. Even though the organization is military and political, the CSTO should deal with spiritual and ideological components, first of all, working with young people,” the coordinator of the Analysis Association of the CSTO, Igor Panarin.

According to Director General of the fund Sensible Internet Vladimir Mamontov, “unification of the common cultural space, the common security space, the common space of lifestyle and mentality, not only military cooperation in the post-Soviet space is very important, significant and useful.”

The head of the analysis center of the Institute of International Studies of MGIMO, Andrey Kazantsev, developed main threats for Russia and possible reactions on them by the CSTO.

The first scenario: Central Asian challenge

In this case the so-called “ripple effect” can happen. Tajikistan can suffer after Afghanistan, like it happened in the 1990s, then, Kyrgyzstan and so on.

In 2014 the NATO troops should leave Afghanistan. Various scenarios of the withdrawal are being developed at the moment. Some American units will remain there, but it will be not enough to provide security in the country. The Russian structures have doubts about the quality of security even today. For example, it is connected with the growth of narcotic production.

In the second half of the 1990s Taliban occupied almost all Afghanistan, a small stripe remained in the north only, and all Central Asian countries appeared to be front-line. Militants invaded Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, coming from Afghanistan. There are many extremists, terrorists from Central Asian countries in Afghanistan – first of all the Uzbeks, but also the Tajiks, the Kazakhs, the Turkmens, representatives of extremist structures from Russia, including the North Caucasus, the Volga region. Today terrorist International has formed there. We remember close ties between Taliban and Chechen separatists, the most extremist and radical wing; that terrorists who committed terrorist attacks in Russia were trained there. Moreover, Russia is the largest market for Afghan heroin.

The second scenario: a new big game

We usually discuss disputes between Russia and the U.S., but there are many other contradictions in the region. For example, Indian-Pakistani contradictions become tense again, they begin to play more and more destabilizing role because the Pakistani interagency intelligence has contacts with terrorists and extremists, including those in Afghanistan. It is no secret that Taliban was established in Pakistan. There is a great complex of contradictions between China and other powers, and so on. It mingles into a big knot in the Middle East where roaming bands of terrorists operate. They easily move from one country to another. So, instability from Syria can easily be transferred to Central Asia. The terrorists come through any “hole” which occurs due to absence of statehood.

The third scenario: gradual decline

It is connected with negative tendencies in the region. It includes the growth of drug trafficking, the growth of corruption, the decline of state structures and the growth of extremism, including the result of dissatisfaction of corruption by the population.

The fourth scenario: successful international cooperation

The essence is that a favorable international environment will be established to fight all these threats. But as the scenario is unlikely to be implemented, the main structure, the workhorse who is the only really working international structure, the CSTO, will work there.