Margvelashvily is elected Georgian president. What will happen to the other candidates?

Victoria Panfilova, columnist for "NG", exclusively to VK

On Sunday, the presidential election in Georgia finally dismantled the nine-year hold on power of the United National Movement (UNM). Mikheil Saakashvili was replaced by the candidate of the ruling coalition "Georgian Dream" (GD) Georgi Margvelashvily.

There were no surprises in the victory of Margvelashvily. Even before the official start of the election campaign, it was clear that the GD candidate would possess a a solid backing compared to the rest of the participants. Prime Minister Ivanishvili by his statement provided Margvelashvily with a clear advantage over other participants. "By voting for him, you vote for me!”, he told voters. And then he repeatedly reiterated this call. It became clear that nobody could compete with Margvelashvily, and he would not be able win the election in the first round only in case if the proponents of GD on October 27 suddenly became completely apolitical and did not go to vote. That has not happened: according to preliminary data of the CEC and the exit polls, Georgi Margvelashvily scored about 68 % of the vote (about 47% of Georgia's voters turned out).

The nexts place were claimed by two former speakers - David Bakradze from the UNM and Nino Burjanadze from the "Democratic Movement - United Georgia". The preliminary surveys of voters which were regularly conducted did not give any answer to the question – the gap between the candidates was small and then fluctuated in favor of one or the other. Only closer to the election a small advantage of the candidate from the former ruling party began to appear. And so the preliminary results and the data of exit polls of the elections on October 27 became even more surprising: Bakradze scored 22 %, while the result of Burjanadze was almost three times less. This advantage of Bakradze can probably be explained by the fact that the voter, in the end, was frightened by the "pro-Russian” position of Burjanadze compared to the other candidates.

In addition, her sonorous statements about the need to establish relations with Moscow, about owning the opportunity to restore the territorial integrity of the country and her readiness to negotiate with all those involved in this problem, including with Russian President Vladimir Putin, did not become at least a minimal hindrance in setting up South Ossetia's border with periodic deepening into Georgian territory by the Russian military. Another factor contributing to the failure of Burjanadze was the fact that the population still has not forgotten that she was a long time in power and moved away from Saakashvili's United National Movement to the opposition only when the internal rows left her out of business.

Burjanadze, and especially another participant of the election campaign - Labor Party leader Shalva Natelashvili, talked about election fraud. They were timidly supported by several other participants of the elections, but this was negligible. The observers did not record any serious violations, and the main rival of Margvelashvily – Bakradze – congratulated the winner on his victory. So in Georgia, the reign of the UNM ended, and a new stage began.
It is remarkable due to the structuring of the political spectrum rare for Georgia. There is the coalition of "Georgian Dream" in power. The main opposition force is the UNM. The opposition force that can take a "pro-Russian niche" is Burjanadze with her entourage. The fate of the other political parties which in the last elections demonstrated their weakness and failure is vague. Perhaps some of them will announce their dissolution like "The People's Party” of Koba Davitashvili. Others, like the Labor Party, are likely to continue periodically to show signs of life, waiting for better times. But, most of all, most of the political institutions of the country will begin to look for their future in an alliance with stronger partners. After all, in a year important elections to the local authorities will be held, and they can try their luck at them. Nevertheless, the favorites in them will apparently be the same forces – the GM and the UNM.

The "nationals" have demonstrated the wonders of survival contrary to the predictions of collapse after the defeat in the parliamentary elections. The leaders of UNM led by Saakashvili made it clear that they would not be in opposition for a long time. In particular, after the presidential elections, Saakashvili told reporters that in recent years he was tired emotionally and was going to rest for a while, moving away from politics. But the plans had to be adjusted - the current situation does not allow to sit idly by for a long time. In saying this, the outgoing president stressed that he means the suspension of the implementation by the Government of Ivanishvili of all significant projects and the fact that the country was in a state of "pause", and this is unacceptable.

Perhaps the most interesting question in the near future concerns the ruling "Georgian Dream". It is known that during the week after the inauguration of the new president, Ivanishvili will leave the post of Prime Minister and policies and move to the civilian sector. It's no secret that GM existed on the personal authority of its creator, who, incidentally, never ruled out that the coalition may cease to exist. What will in fact happen to a motley coalition? Will it be able to maintain the unity and authority and popularity among the population? This is the most important question in the near future, as well as the question who becomes the prime minister of Georgia; Ivanishvili is going to call his name soon. After all, in the end, according to the Constitution, after the inauguration of Margvelashvily, the center of power in Georgia officially shifted from the president to the prime minister and the parliament. The scheme prepared by the parliament of the previous convocation of the UNM to continue Saakashvili’s power as prime minister gave a crash with last year's parliamentary elections. The "Georgian Dream" won, and this scheme will have to be adapted to the modern Georgian reality under its power.