Azerbaijan: sunset of the opposition and “shake-up” of the authorities

Mikhail Belyayev, exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

On October 27, the Azerbaijani opposition gathered for another demonstration. It was likely the last rally in a series of pre- and post-election processes in Azerbaijan. The number of supporters of the National Council who came on the streets was about 1,000-3,000 people. Opposition activists and supporters honored “the new elected president of Azerbaijan” Jamil Hasanly and shouted typical mottos on resignation of the government. After a while they went home. Another opposition entity leaves the political stage; it failed to compete with the power of President Aliyev, which is one of the most effective in the post-Soviet space.

The National Council of Democratic Forces is a union which is based not on ideological collectivity of its members, but on the principle “an enemy of my enemy is my friend.” At the moment it actually is in the process of dissolution. The liberals headed by Lala Shovket and the former speaker of the parliament Rasul Guliyev who lives in the U.S.A. have already left the NCDF. The chairman of the National Council, film director Rustam Ibragimbekov, paled into insignificance as well. Hopes of the opposition for a support by certain circles in Russia were ruined by the summer visit of Vladimir Putin to Azerbaijan. The Western support appeared to be show-off rhetoric. After a moment’s consideration, Angela Merkel sent a warm letter of congratulation to Ilham Aliyev; in a few days, French President Francois Hollande followed her example. The American ambassador Richard Morningstar told the Azerbaijani agency APA that the U.S. didn’t doubt the results of the elections: ““First of all, we stand by our statement of October 10 regarding the elections.  However, our statement does not question the outcome of the election.  President Aliyev has been inaugurated.  We look forward to working with him and the government of Azerbaijan on a wide range of issues including democracy related issues, Nagorno-Karabakh, other geopolitical issues, counter-terrorism, and energy and economic diversification issues.”

Obviously, Ilham Aliyev is perceived as a legitimate leader of the state inside the country and in the international arena. The fact that the re-elected president feels confident at the internal political stage is confirmed by shifts in the governmental team. Aliyev dismissed the defense minister Safir Abiyev and the minister of labour and social defense Fizuli Alekperov. It is notable that both of ministers “made a slip” in the election year. Mass protests of citizens against nonbattle casualties discredited the Defense Ministry; the events in the Azerbaijani region of Ismailly where local residents stood against the head of the executive power – Fizuli Alekperov’s brother – reflected very negatively on the career of the minister. Moreover, the Ministry of Labour and Social Defense was thought to be the most corrupted ministry in the country, and General Prosecutor of the republic Zakir Garalov confirmed this. Ahead of the elections the minister of education Masir Mardanov was replaced by young and active reformer with Western education, Mikail Jabbarov.

In the foreign policy, Baku afforded tensions with the West and criticized heavily American Department of State for its estimates of the presidential elections in Azerbaijan. Baku stated on cancelation of cooperation with OSCE/ODIHR and on intention to suspend its membership in the PA of Euronest. It means Baku feels master of the situation, demands equal partnership and doesn’t want to play a role of a whipping boy for the Western countries. The first foreign visit by Ilham Aliyev as re-elected President was to Minsk to the CIS summit. Obviously the traditional balancing policy between various centers of force will go on during the third term of Ilham Aliyev. This policy enables Azerbaijan to conduct an independent policy in the region.