Georgian paradoxes: the view from Moscow

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Georgia will be constructive toward Russia and continue an improvement in relations, Georgy Margvelashvili stated. He gained 62.11% of votes in the weekend presidential elections. Russian experts are sure that the policy of the Georgian authorities will be more coordinated.

“There were no special surprises in the elections. Everybody waited for victory of the candidate from Georgian Dream, Margvelashvili. His figure is more symbolic than really serious. According to the new constitution of Georgia, the main functions will be fulfilled not by President, but Premier of Georgia,” Alexander Skakov, coordinator of the working group of the Center of Studying Central Asia and the Caucasus in the Institute of Oriental Studies of the RAS. “However, it was important how many votes were given to Margvelashvili and other candidates – the candidate from the former ruling party UNM and Nino Burdzhanadze who is well known in Georgia and abroad. Here we can see a certain surprise because the candidate from the UNM got more votes than it was expected… So, I think it is too early to forget about the former ruling party, it still has potential in Georgia, even without Saakashvili.”

According to Skakov, Nino Burdzhanadze staked on improvement of relations between Georgia and Russia and “found herself in the wrong time in the wrong place. Moreover, many people remember that she was a member of triumvirate together with Saakashvili. The main intrigue is not who is the Georgian President, but who will be the Georgian Premier. We cannot see a real figure who can replace Bidzina Ivanishvili as he leaves politics. There are several reasons for this. The first reason is that he didn’t manage to become “friendly” for the West, for America; he is still alien for Washington. They don’t accept him, don’t trust him and don’t want to talk to him. The same thing is with most of European countries – he is a stranger for them.”

Speaking about Ivanishvili’s successor, the editor-in-chief of Vestnik Kavkaza Alexei Vlasov noted that it will be a person “who is devoted, manageable, but with charisma; a person who will be respected by both Vladimir Putin or Barack Obama. There are few such figures in the current cabinet. Georgian Dream is not a party, but a coalition; and any coalition is consolidated by a certain person, in this case it is Ivanishvili. It is easy to control the coalition, using your financial resources without taking an official position, but it is much more difficult to control the public field of Georgian politics and trust a man who is, just like the new Georgian president, not a media person or a charismatic politician, who belongs to the creative class rather than to the professional political elite.”

The head of non-profitable partnership “Caucasian Cooperation”, Nikolai Silayev, noted that the key player in the coalition of Georgian Dream is still the Republic Party: “As the Republican Party has never managed to win elections by its own, it always gets in the parliament as a member of a coalition; in Ivanishvili’s team they play the role of professional political managers. Thus, the big part of the government and the parliament are under control of the republicans. They need such a partner in the parliament and such an opposition that would share their crucial political principles. And their principles are distance from Russia and Euro-Atlantic integration with tendencies toward the European Union and the U.S. From this point of view the elections improved the structure of Georgian elites, which was formed by the parliamentary elections.”

Silayev thinks that “Ivanishvili leaves not because he couldn’t build relations with Washington. He leaves because he is not interested in this anymore, he doesn’t want to be responsible for management of the country. And I have a feeling that he lost interest to all these things in recent months. Georgian Dream will probably collapse, and the reason is reformation of these pro-Atlantic groups which exist in Georgia today. Here surprises are possible, as it is well-known that intraspecific competition can be very severe.”

Sergey Markov, the vice-principal of Plekhanov Russian Economics University, is happy with Margvelashvili’s victory because “he represents a new political party, a new political course which is thought to be a hope for improvement on Russian-Georgian relations. He is also a philosopher, and we need more philosophers in power. I think it will enable governments to fulfil policy widely, seriously and in a constant manner. Of course now we expect improvement of relations, and our goal is to develop a program for that improvement. I hope that various social organisations, including the Russian-Georgian Friendship Society, will contribute to this process as well. Today we need to meet a lot and define the agenda of settlement of problems which can be solved quickly and without disputes. I think serious contradictions should be put aside for a while, because we need to solve the problems on which we have a common view. And for sure we have to raise the question on restoration of normal diplomatic relations between our countries. We should find adequate solutions and fulfill them.

Markov predicts that new policy will be established in Georgia: “There will be a big political sensation in Georgia, and it will put Assange and Snowden to shame. What do I mean? Now an investigation into Zurab Zhvania’s death will be initiated. Probably it would be proved that the previous investigation was falsified, and Zurab Zhvania was murdered. If this is discovered, it will mean that the U.S.A. FBI investigation has been falsified as well. The FBI investigation was supervised by the vice-president of the U.S. Dick Cheney. It may happen that it will be proved that Zurab Zhvania was killed and an international group hid his murder. And it could appear that Dick Cheney might be convicted of involvement in the murder of the prime minister of Georgia, Zurab Zhvania. Do you realise the scale of the sensation?

Markov hopes that “an investigation into the start of the war in 2008 will be initiated. I think it may appear that Mikhail Saakashvili made the decision not independently, but under pressure from the same people – Condoleezza Rice and Dick Cheney. We hope that our friends will have enough political will and resistance to put the pressure on and they will conduct a fair investigation. We hope that all the people who have committed crimes will be punished according to the law.”