Netanyahu in Moscow: the Israeli outlook

By Peter Lyukimson, Israel. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

Israeli Foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman spoke about a reorientation of foreign policy just before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Russia: “Our ties and friendship with the US are constantly weakening. The Americans have their own problems in North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Syria, Egypt, and China, plus economic problems in addition. It is clear that if it needs to sacrifice Israel to solve the problems, it would do so.” Lieberman noted that Israel should not rely on Europe. He said that he had met one of European leaders who had been an opposition member. The leader had been making passionate tirades of support for Israel. But having become a prime minister, he took an anti-Israeli position immediately. “I remember I asked our friend: “How could this be?!” “What do you expect?” he responded, “He has unemployment in the country, many problems and he is searching for foreign support. It can only be found in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Turkey. So I understand him.” “We have no such economic resources. We need to improve our international position. We need new partners that do not seek for Islamic peace,” continued Lieberman. He did not name any specific state but it was clear that he meant Russia.

Netanyahu’s visit yesterday is covered in mysteries, just as his previous visit to Sochi when Russia denied all media reports about agreements. Now, Israel expects that Russia would support changes in the temporary agreement between the West and Iran and possibly speak as the guarantor of fulfillment of the changes. However, Deputy Foreign Minister Ze’ev Elkin assisting Netanyahu in Moscow admitted that chances for Russia to respond to pleads of Israel were small.

Officially, the position of Israel remains the same: an agreement between the West and Iran is unacceptable and Israel is hostile towards the deal. One of the highest-ranking sources told Vestnik Kavkaza that Netanyahu had decided to soften the position. Just before the visit to Moscow and opening of a new round of talks in Geneva, Israeli authorities figured that the West was devoted to signing a deal with Iran and it was most likely inevitable. So Israel decided to use all its diplomatic and other tools to introduce changes to the agreement with account of its interests. First of all, Israel wants the agreement to have a point that all sanctions will be restored and aggravated if the West fails to come to an agreement on the nuclear program with Iran or if Iran gets caught violating the agreement.

Current negotiations concern an intermediate agreement for half a year, until signing of a long-term one. Israel believes that a long-term agreement would never be signed because of Iran’s unconstructive position. And then, the condition Israel insists on would come into force.

The US seems to be ready to accept Israeli changes in the document. US Secretary of State John Kerry said at a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu: “I have great respect for Netanyahu but he makes mistakes in some issues. Should the agreement with Iran succeed, we can easily turn it back,” said Kerry. At the same time, Netanyahu’s ex-National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror had the first interview after resignation. In a conversation with a journalist of The Times, Amidror said: “Long ago, Netanyahu became ready to hit Iranian nuclear facilities. We cannot destroy Iranian nuclear industry alone but we can slow its development down for a long time.”

The reasons for the unscheduled visit of the Israeli prime minister to Moscow were clarified at the joint press conference of Netanyahu and Putin. Although almost all issues remain open. Netanyahu said that Russia said that Russia and Israel had a common goal to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Characterizing the current state of Russian-Israeli relations, Netanyahu called them “warm, close and productive, encouraging cooperation in different fields.” During negotiations, in his words, they discussed bilateral cooperation in economy, agriculture, culture and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

He clearly clarified that Israel demanded Iran stop uranium enrichment, shut down centrifuges and close down the nuclear reactor in Arak. Netanyahu emphasized that “Israel was interested in settling the Iranian nuclear problem peacefully too.” And he explained that Iran should be free from nuclear weapons the way Syria became free of chemical weapons under Russian initiatives.

It was clear from Netanyahu’s speech that Israel managed to put up with the fact that the agreement in Geneva will be signed now try to ‘improve’ it with some changes. The final bet is put on France and Russia in the context of cooling relations with the US and the UK. Vladimir Putin, in his turn, noted that relations with Israel were developing well, especially in the fields of oil and gas explorations in the Mediterranean Shelf, aviation and cosmonautics. The Russian president expressed hope that a solution to suit all sides with be found in negotiations with Iran.

Israeli observers have different opinions about Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow. Most of them believe that the Israeli PM, putting bet on Russia and France, was making a big mistake and criticize him. They insist that Israel should think about keeping the US as the strategic partner. Observers say that France will most likely betray Israel, the way it happened in 1967, and Russian ‘bearish hugs’ can cause suffocation.

Meanwhile, the outlines of the temporary agreement planned for signing in Tehran can be seen. The West has the following demands from Iran:

- stop 20%-uranium enrichment;

- limit uranium enrichment to 3.5% for peaceful purposes;

- move all 20%-enriched uranium out of Iran;

- stop construction of the Arak reactor;

- allow IAEA inspectors to do all the necessary work.

In return, the West promises Iran:

- to ease sanctions against oil, gas and metal industry;

- gradually unfreeze tens of billions of dollars of Iranian accounts arrested in international banks.

Sources in Geneva report that all the said issues have already been settled and signing of an agreement is inevitable. However, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei added some sort of a discord to the process when he said that existence of Israel was illegal and it was destined to be destroyed.

Israel took the message as proof that Iran will continue dreaming about plans to destroy the Jewish state.