Putin in Armenia: the view from Moscow

Victoria Panfilova, an NG commentator, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

Yesterday, Armenia welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin. The visit had been planned a long time ago, almost from the day of Putin's inauguration. However, he took a long time to arrive. The strategic partners had one problem – Armenia decided to sign an association agreement with the EU. This was supposed to happen at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius. Moscow had to wait and see what friendly Yerevan did, and the visit could wait.

Armenia’s behavior was easy to explain. It couldn’t make Russia to give a two-billion credit to Yerevan on economic development. Moscow’s promises to help were insulting in the context of generous grants to unstable Kyrgyzstan which received Russian aid, but often acted not in Russian interests. Moreover, ignoring of Armenia in the context of the Customs Union was insulting as well, even though Yerevan stated about its interest, it didn’t receive an invitation.

At the same time, association with the EU was developed in detail by Armenia. The agreement contained to military component; a political component was minimal. In short, Armenia would have got simplification of the visa regime and a free trade zone, would have been obliged to conduct management reforms, according to European standards. On the other hand, Russia would have got rid of a troublesome relative who annoyed Russia with its demands for help. At the same time, Russia would have maintained its military influence and would have lost an insignificant part of its political influence. However, it seemed Moscow didn’t like the scenario. Probably Yerevan received some guarantees secretly, because during Serge Sargsyan’s visit to Moscow association with the EU wasn’t discussed and Armenian President stated that Armenia would join the Customs Union. By the time, it was clear that Belarus was indifferent to such extension of the alliance, while Kazakhstan was against it. Different views on the issue were made up at the 10th Russian-Kazakhstan Interregional Summit in Yekaterinburg in November.

What guarantees Yerevan could receive, making choice in favor of the Customs Union, we found out during Vladimir Putin’s visit to Yerevan on December 2nd. Armenia will get Russian gas for internal Russian prices, as well as arms; cooperation will be intensified; and investments and a series of economic projects are promised to the nuclear and security spheres. Isn’t it sufficient? It is sufficient, if it becomes true.

The Karabakh problem. Vladimir Putin said that blood shouldn’t be shed anymore and welcomed restoration of contacts between Azerbaijan and Armenia at the top level. The statement seems to be adequate and reasonable. Yerevan should be happy. Moreover, “Russia will make the process of Armenia’s accession to the CU most effective.” A road map may be signed on December 24th.

Vladimir Putin stated that Russia intends to improve positions in the South Caucasus, and it would reasonable to think that it relies on its strategic partner, first of all. It also seems to be alright for Armenia.

However, in Yerevan strange developments took place on Monday, to put it mildly. A group which calls itself ‘Dignified Motherland’ decided to meet Russian President by an action which had to make it clear that Russian President is not welcomed in Armenia. The group includes the opposition Armenian party Heritage; it has pro-Western views and believes that the choice in favor of the Customs Union was made by the authorities because of Russia’s pressure, i.e. it was interference in Armenian internal affairs. The politicians and social activists held their protest with mottos on prevention of the country’s colonization.

Probably, the hundred or so people deserved no attention, but for several circumstances. It is inadequate to shout about Moscow’s pressure on Yerevan: according to Gellapa public opinion polls, about 70% Armenian population stands for the CU. Did the authorities falsify the data, as the opposition stated? Why didn’t the opposition present other data? Are initiators of anti-Russian protests ready to be responsible before the Armenian nation and history for consequences which will follow a break-up between Armenia and Russia? It seems to me they are not able to think in such a way, if they forgot hospitability rules, especially considering the fact that Armenia has many times invited the Russian president to come.