The Caucasus press review (December 9-15)

By Vestnik Kavkaza

According to the Armenian newspaper “Lragir”, the government's decision on "liberalizing the sky" and opening up the aviation market in Armenia caused a mixed assessment. For example, the National Competitiveness Foundation of Armenia, which prepared the plan in conjunction with the international consulting firm McKinsey, solving problems associated with strategic management to which the Armenian government addressed for advice, thinks that this decision will lead to a growth in tourism, and will provide thousands of jobs and billions in revenue. The U.S. Ambassador to Armenia John Heffern is approximately of the same opinion; he even already thinks about the directions for Armenian tourism, offering, for example, to develop archaeological tourism. The program of action for the coming years presented by the Armenian office of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) also suggests promoting "Open Skies", the development of tourism and the competition in this area, which may lead to lower prices .

However, some experts are concerned about the negative consequences of this policy in relation to Armenia. The newspaper " Voice of Armenia" published the opinion of the former general director of Armenian Airlines Yuri Mnatsakanov, who believes that the findings of the National Competitiveness Foundation of Armenia are not supported by appropriate analytical basis and calculations, and it lacks a proper evaluation of military and political risks associated with the opening of the Armenian sky .

"Opening up" the sky, the veteran of civil aviation writes, generally provides a tangible boost to the economy of the country when containing at least one of the following conditions: being a hub transport or transit center, where air, rail and road ways would converge or run; being a significant center of manufacturing, trading or banking activities; having a very attractive base for tourism. According to Mnatsakanov, Armenia currently does not have anyone of these conditions. Looking at the structure of the segment of tourism in Armenia, it is evident that its main share is over 60% and has a distinct family-ethnic character. But these passenger flows have formed long ago and are relatively fixed.

The increase in the share of the second largest tourist segment – the regional one (Iran, Georgia, etc. ) – cannot be significantly influenced by the opening up of the sky. Here a serious competitor to air transport is ground transportation, which is more affordable for the most part of this category of tourists. Thus, the smallest share of the available tourist segment – the foreign one – has the real growth potential. But it will require a significant increase in effort and cost aimed at creating a complete infrastructure in the areas of historical and natural monuments and construction of new tourist facilities that would increase the attractiveness of the country for this category of tourists. However, these issues, according to experts, are not given due attention in the concept.

Furthermore, Mnazakanov believes that the liberalization of the Armenian air transport market should be started not from the sky but from the ground. Namely, it is necessary to get rid of the monopoly of the Yerevan "Zvartnots" airport services and restrictions on the use of other airports in Armenia for international flights, as this increases the cost of transportation and puts local carriers at a disadvantage compared to foreign ones.

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According to the Azerbaijani newspaper "The Caspian", the conflict between the two major forces of the opposition camp – "People's Front of Azerbaijan" and "Musavat" – has increased. Even being involved in the “National Council of Democratic Forces" created this summer, the representatives of these parties do not stop the mutual attacks. In recent days, the dissatisfaction of People’s Front with the leader of "Musavat" Isa Gambar has been particularly vividly manifested.

Though the newspaper "Azadlig " controlled by PPFA Chairman Ali Kerimli recently chose not to focus on the internal differences in the "National Council", lately it "saw" these problems, seeing the main cause in the incorrect information policy of the newspaper "Yeni Musavat". It was said that the chief editor of this edition Arifoglu and his supporters arranged this without the knowledge of Isa Gambar . However, after an interview with the chairman of the party "Musavat" for radio "Freedom" the situation changed dramatically, and the newspaper of PPFA began to regularly place articles criticizing Gambar’s steps and speeches.

"Azadliq" recalled that about a year ago in the Public Chamber tension arose created by Rauf Arifoglu, who was a member of the coordinating council, and, as a result, the adviser to the chairman of "Musavat" was forced to withdraw from the Public Chamber. In addition, according to the newspaper, the activity of human rights activist and member of "Musavat" Novella Jafaroglu is indirectly beneficial for government and creates a negative attitude of the public towards the opposition. The author even referred to some of his friends belongin to “Musavat” who believe that being close to the authorities is incompatible with the membership of the party.

Another reason for the differences between the two parties was the fact that in the above interview Gambar referred to the results of the presidential election declared not by the observers from the "National Council" but by the CEC, which the opposition doubts. "Azadliq" strongly focused attention on this. Allegedly trying to understand what the Musavat party leader meant by these statistical indicators, the publication asked for comments the head of the NGO "Centre for Monitoring Elections and Democracy Training" Anar Mammadly , who also rebuked Gambar for his reference to the data of the CEC. For his part, a member of the "National Council" Ibrahim Ibrahimly, who left the ranks of the "Musavat" party some time ago, also expressed the view that the statistical data of the CEC are not so objective that making reference to them could make sense.

At the same time the lack of a concrete response to the claims of "Musavat" draws attention to itself, "The Caspian" reports. But the party functionaries in their interviews strongly urge the party leadership to the exit from the "National Council". The author of the article thinks that the party "Musavat" became aware of the unreality of any success in the political arena remaining in the camp of the radical opposition and seeks to pursue a more pragmatic policy, which certainly is not welcomed in the ranks of PPFA.

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Chechnya remains the leader among the Russian entities according to demographic indicators. According to the Grozny newspaper "Stolitsa Plus", in the last decade we can talk about the present population explosion in the republic. Every year the population is growing by about 25 thousand people, or 2% a year, and at the beginning of this year it exceeded its historical maximum. The basis of demographic well-being in Chechnya is a high level of fertility. In January - September 2013 in the Republic the number of births per 1000 people was 24.9 people , which is two times more than in the whole of Russia.
Most experts attribute this to socio-cultural factors. Sociologist Fatima Yusupova believes that women's traditional role in the family, which is gradually eroding in other regions of Russia, Europe and America, in Chechnya has not changed . They are active, many of them have a brilliant career, but a woman is especially a mother and a homemaker, and among the Chechen people, this idea is still dominant. In addition, the Chechens have always been believers, and Islam encourages large families. Children and family are the most important value. The region is home to more than 70 thousand families with three or more children.

Several months ago, the Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Development of the Republic adopted a departmental program "Large family (2014-2016)", which provides financial support to families with 8 or more children; there are 137 such families in Chechnya.

There are a very low number of deaths in the republic. If in Russia as a whole 1000 deaths last year accounted for 997 births , in Chechnya the ratio is radically different - a thousand deaths last year accounted for about 5 thousand births, which provides a natural growth, which cannot be expected in any way in other regions. The mortality rate here, according to the author, is significantly lower than in the developed countries of Europe .

The author of the publication causes it to many reasons. Favorable climate conditions and the fact that nearly two- thirds of the population (65.2 %) live in rural areas play an important role here. In addition, as a result of two long wars, almost the entire Chechen industry was destroyed, and, according to the author, there is something good about it – the extent of industrial pollution of Grozny and other cities has fallen. The experts say that influencing the fertility by the methods of state regulation is virtually impossible. But the government has the possibility to influence the mortality rate. Despite endless complaints from citizens about Chechen medical serrvices, it must be admitted that the health system in Chechnya made a leap forward for a few years. It is equally important that the percentage of smokers among men in Chechnya is low, and among women it even tends to zero. In addition, there is virtually no actual problem of alcoholism, and it is not only due to the fact that Islam prohibits the consumption of alcoholic beverages. A favorable role is played by legal restrictions on the sale of alcohol, which is allowed only from 8 am to 10 am. Besides, the sale of alcohol itself here, according to the author, is considered shameful and unworthy for the seller, so even if someone wants to buy alcohol, he will have to try hard to find it somewhere.

However, as the publication indicates, despite the positive trends, infant mortality in the republic remains the highest in Russia (after the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug); it is also growing rapidly. If in 2010 it was 14.8 for 1000, in 2012 the figures amounted to 21.9.

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The "Republic of Abkhazia" has sounded the alarm about the potential rolling blackouts in the region in winter. The fact is that the country has only one source of power generation – the Inguri Dam, built in 1978, the technical condition of which today is alarming. A very unique 15 - kilometer tunnel leading to the computer room which over the years began to crumble is in need of repair, gateways station no longer cope with the flow of water, a piece of equipment and high voltage power lines are plundered. According to experts, three drop station, which will cost at least $ 100 million, are also in need of repair. In addition, there is a problem in manning the station with qualified personnel.

Since hydropower facilities are located on the territory of Georgia and Abkhazia (part of the tunnel, the computer room at a depth of 120 meters, as well as four HPPs), in 1992 the parties reached a verbal agreement on the distribution of electricity generated and the cost of it between Georgia and Abkhazia in the proportion of 60 and 40 percent. During the years after the war with Georgia, the Abkhaz side due to lack of funds did not invest almost a single ruble in hydroelectric content, and more recently, Georgia ceased to invest funds into the station and negotiates the sale or lease of its part of the station .

According to the publication, today the average annual electricity consumption in Abkhazia increased 2-fold compared to the pre-war period. Usually in December and January the republic consumes 90-95 % of the total output of the Inguri Dam, and in February -March - due to the scarcity of water in the dam - even more, thereby using all the electricity . In connection with this, the leadership of the State Company "Chernomorenergo" which is in charge of the Inguri Dam reflects on the introduction of the restrictions on electricity supply to the republic. "Last winter we went on a big risk and did not disable the network, but this year, due to the fact that the water level in the dam is low, we will have to go for it", Director General Rezo Zantaria said. The best option, he said , would be to turn off the capital and the regions at night, but in this case such vital facilities as hospitals, bakeries, police will stop working. So far the schedule is being coordinated with the government, but in the near future the residents of the country should be prepared for rolling blackouts for two hours twice a day, both at night and in the daytime, the edition warns.

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The newspaper "Kabardino-Balkarian Pravda" reports that as part of the activities for the advanced development program of electricity metering systems operating in the zone of responsibility of the republican branch of Interregional Distribution Grid Company of the North Caucasus the installation of electric meters of a new generation with data transmission function has started. The program is designed to install one-and three-phase meters with a 2.4 MHz radio interface for the subscribers in the settlements of the Cheghemsky and Leskensky regions. The publication states that the data of 5.4 thousand smart meters installed in the last year have already been recorded on the server of the Chegemsky regional power networks, which allows controlling the amount of electricity consumed by subscribers on-line. The "smart" metering with high accuracy class is aimed at preventing the theft of electricity by the subscribers of the private sector and reducing losses in those regional power networks where previously their highest level was recorded. In addition, the costs of removal and transfer of meter readings by electricity metering operators during the examination will decrease at the Kabardino -Balkarian branch.