Is Berlin ready for confrontation with Moscow?

Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza

The international political crisis caused by a change of power in Ukraine and the sensational processes underway in Crimea reflected the incapability and diffidence of the EU foreign policy, first of all, Germany, as a serious player and a real alternative to Russian hegemony in the post-Soviet space.

Hesitation in choosing common a foreign political policy leads to a situation when the EU simply can’t keep up with the events in Crimea; different national interests of certain members of the EU, strong economic ties with Russia, and energy dependence on Russian gas import are factors which turn Europe into a “toothless” rival of Moscow. At the same time, Washington doesn’t hide that it considers Angela Merkel a leader of Europe, who has to be a counterbalance of Vladimir Putin. Is Berlin ready for the role?

Political scientist Alexander Rahr notes that German foreign policy has two tracks. On the one hand, it is a policy of real interests; on the other hand, it is a policy of values, which is primary for German foreign policy, according to German politicians. Despite this common view in the German political society, experience has shown that Germany is ready for a pragmatic cooperation with various countries and government, and it doesn’t tend to oppose values and real political-economic cooperation.

Several weeks ago German President Joachim Gauk made a speech at the Munich Security Conference, it was devoted to Germany’s role in the world. Gauk presented a new foreign political concept of Germany, which is “based on values and covers human rights matters.” The president of Germany stated that the principle doesn’t guarantee that regimes which use force against their population in other countries will avoid punishment. Gauk said that “an extreme measure” could be usage of Germany military forces. The Defense Minister of Germany Ursula de Leien confirmed the readiness of the federal government to “extend the international responsibility” of the country. Finally, the head of the German Foreign Ministry Frank Walter Steinmeier stated that “Germany is fairly expected to intervene” (in affairs of third countries in crises).

However, after the Russian intervention in Crimea, top officials of the German state stopped making such statements. A question on launching sanctions against Russia will be decided by Brussels post factum, the next day after holding a referendum in Crimea, which won’t be recognized by the West. The point is in a three-stage sanction plan by European countries, according to which the first stage requires freezing accounts of top Russian officials who are involved in the processes on the Crimean peninsula. It is interesting that none of European countries is ready even to discuss possible military aid to Ukraine, including Germany.

Pro-European forces which came in power in Kiev are left alone in their conflict with Russia. Efforts taken by the Europeans to build a dialogue with Russia and “persuade” it not to join Crimea were doomed to fail. The Foreign Minister of Germany Frank Walter Steinmeier suggested establishing a contact group of the OSCE for settlement the situation in Crimea, but Russia responded to it by denial of access of observers to Crimea. Steinmeier stated that Russia could avoid sanctions in case of de-escalation of the situation in Crimea, but Moscow announced a referendum which would most probably lead to separation of the peninsula from Ukraine and merging it with Russia.

Finally, Angela Merkel strictly stated that the situation is about the actual annexation of Crimea by Russia on March 11th. “We shouldn't let the Russian authorities go unpunished,” Merkel stated. According to participants of the CDU session, the Chancellor also urged them to be ready for consequences from stronger sanctions against Russia. She didn’t specify what sanctions she ment.

However, the German economic society has already reacted at prepared sanctions against Russia; and the reaction is very negative. The head of the Institute for Economic Studies, Pr. Hans Werner Sinn, says that the EU will shoot itself in the foot by the sanctions. “We cannot afford the policy of sanctions against Russia. It will put at risk our energy policy,” the professor said.

At the same time, Germany is still a top partner for Russia in Europe, and it takes a key position in the system of foreign political ties of Russia. The turnover between the countries reached 76.5 billion euros in 2013. Germany became the third most important trade partner of Russia, while Russia takes only the 7th place among countries from which Germany imports goods. German investments to Russia reached $22 billion by October 2013. German enterprises directly invest into such spheres as wholesale and retail trade, electricity power, oil and gas sector, transport, communications, food industry, chemicals, and automobile industry.

Energy projects provided by Moscow and Berlin – the Northern Stream and the South Stream – stress a strategic character of Russian-German partnership. Russia needs German know-how, while further development of German directly depends on Russian energy supplies. According to some estimates, even development of alternative energy forms will depend on an access to Russian mineral resources. China controls almost 90% of rare earth metals which are necessary for development of the sphere. Russia is the only alternative.

Therefore, interest of Berlin in development and preservation of the current trade and economic relations with Russia is very high. Any attempt of sanctions against Russia will face strong resistance by German businessmen and major energy concerns. It is important that all members of the EU should agree to launch sanctions against Russia. It seems that prepared sanctions won’t radically influence the Kremlin’s activity in Ukraine.

Berlin won’t play a role of a blind executor managed by the USA leadership and start economic and political confrontation with Russia. Kiev headed by Euromaidan authorities has all chances to repeat Georgia’s fate in 2008, despite its much greater geopolitical and economic importance for the EU.