Dmitry Piskulov: the ruble begins to “recover”

The ruble strengthened today in the situation of the specification of sanctions against Russia, which turned out to be quite mild. At the same time, by yesterday’s estimate for today at 18.30 MSK, the dollar would decrease by 33 kopecks, down to to 36.26 rubles, the euro by 40 kopecks, down to to 50.55 rubles, according to the Moscow stock exchange data. The currency basket ($0.55 and 0.45 euro) at the same time would fall by 36 kopecks compared to the previous closing - up to 42.70 rubles, and after the news of the introduction of the U.S. sanctions against a number of Russian and Ukrainian officials, the ruble strengthened its growth and added another 10 kopecks to the basket against the first wave of growth that began after 15.00 MSK and lasted for half an hour. As a result, the currency basket became cheaper by 46 kopecks - up to 42.6 rubles.

Does this mean that the Ukrainian factor in the fall of the ruble has ended? VK asked this question to the chairman of the National Currency Association Dmitry Piskulov. "It has not ended, but it has stopped its immediate panic effect, because the Bank of Russia acted decisively: two weeks ago it reduced panic by increasing the amount of accumulated interventions, more clearly indicating its presence in the market. And accordingly, we are now witnessing a situation when the Bank of Russia actually controls the movement of the exchange rate and foreign policy in a difficult situation," says the expert.

The economist evaluates the current situation on the currency market as relatively calm, noting that in the long term the effect of the factors that have determined the outflow of capital, are not gone: these are the weakness of the Russian economy, the lack of growth and the ongoing foreign policy factor." But here it is necessary to judge by incoming political news. In any case, I think that the task of the Bank of Russia will be to keep an acceptable level of the ruble against foreign currencies p, and possibly a small projected depreciation of the ruble in case of factors causing the depreciation of the ruble remain," says Dmitry Piskulov.

On the question of the impact on the accession of the Crimea on the Russian currency, the chairman of the National Currency Association says that for the Russian currency this is a positive fact." This means that the territory of the circulation of the Russian ruble, and more people, more business objects begin to use the ruble. To promote the ruble on the world markets this is, of course, not enough: a state policy is needed, as well as government measures designed to promote the ruble as a means of international payments, but it has expanded its geographic presence,” says the expert.