Ukraine: most probably the elections to take place on May 25th

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Russian President and the current chairman of the OSCE, the President of Switzerland, have conducted talks on the situation in Ukraine. As a result, Vladimir Putin urged supporters of federalization to postpone a referendum on the self-determination of regions, which was scheduled for May 11th. He also supported the idea of a round-table conference with the participation of the current Kiev authorities and their opponents in the Southeast.

Meanwhile, the Foreign Minister of the UK, William Hague, addressed his European colleagues to “express common support for the pan-Ukrainian elections on May 25th,” The head of the Ukrainian Central Electoral Commission, Mikhail Okhendovsky, is sure that the elections will take place, despite any circumstances.

In Russia many politicians and experts stand against the elections. Georgy Fyodorov, the deputy head of the Coordination Headquarter for Providing Ukrainian Residents with Aid of the Russian Public Chamber, told Vestnik Kavkaza that “the upcoming elections could hardly be called legitimate. It is obvious that in such an atmosphere of political terror, actual civil war, and military operations with use of heavy military vehicles, artillery, helicopters, and armored vehicles we cannot speak about legitimate presidential elections. We will address the UN to put pressure on Ukraine to postpone the elections. If the elections are held, it will encourage an escalation of the conflict, they won’t lead to the legitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities or pan-national peace.”

However, Dmitry Oreshkin, a political scientist, a member of the Council for the Development of Civil Society Institutions and Human Rights under the President of Russia, is sure that the elections will take place and Russia will have to deal with their results. “The situation, whether it is good or bad, will be determined by the elections. We should speak about Lugansk and Donetsk. The situation is difficult there; if the elections don’t take place there, the situation of 1995-96 and 1999 in Russia will be repeated, when the Chechen Republic didn’t participate in the elections. It was fine, we got over it.”

Oreshkin thinks most of the population will vote in the elections of May 25th, including most of the population of Eastern Ukraine: “The elite of the Kharkov, Odessa, Kherson, Nikolayev, and many other regions managed to bargain with the weak Kiev authorities and received certain benefits. So the elections will be held in most of the eastern regions. The situation in Eastern Ukraine becomes more difficult due to the policy by the Russian government, which took away 1.5 million Crimean voters who were very loyal to pro-Russian candidates.”

According to Oreshkin, “Mr. Yanukovych and his Party of Regions have lost their previous unity and popularity. Therefore, any pro-Russian candidate, pro-Moscow or anti-Kiev candidate, will apparently lose the elections, as there are no voters.”

Oreshkin predicts that Poroshenko is going to win: “Whether it is bad or good for Russia, it is a fact. However, someone else could win the elections. I think Tymoshenko has no chances.”