Results of elections in Georgia

By Vestnik Kavkaza

On June 17th the municipal elections were held in Georgia. According to the Central Electoral Committee of Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream coalition gained 50.97%, while the opposition United National Movement gained 22.22%. The results of the elections are commented on for Vestnik Kavkaza by political scientist Georgy Nodia and a member of the Expert Club of Georgia Vakhtang Maisaya.

Voter turnout was rather low at the elections. According to Nodia, it was lower than the announced 43%. However, the expert notes that “traditionally, voter turnout at the municipal elections is not high.” At the same time, Maisaya thinks that 43% is “a natural figure. It is not much, but it is not too little. I think it is a bit more than usual. As for Tbilisi, the turnout in the city was low. Only 37% of voters participated in the elections.”

Vakhtang Maisaya says that the number of votes gained by Georgian Dream is high: “Considering the fact that there are protest attitudes among the population and many voters are disappointed with the political activity of the ruling coalition, Georgian Dream got a big number of votes. The result of the National Movement is not a failure, but it is a near miss. They didn’t win anything.” Georgy Nodia says that “we knew that Dream would get less than 62% - the number of votes given to its candidate at the presidential elections. The main intrigue was whether there would be second rounds or not. In 18 regions second rounds will probably be held. So the result of Georgian Dream is worse than expected.”

According to Nodia, Georgian Dream “began to lose its supporters long ago and continues to do so, but it is not a disaster. The reason for this is that Georgian Dream had a lot of attractive promises, but it couldn’t offer anything serious to society. The main part of its PR is that it defeated the United National Movement and “freed the country from terror and fear.” Some people think so as well, but it is not enough. Time has passed, a lot of work has been done, and they should show improvements, for example, in living standards. It wouldn’t be a surprise to me if its rating falls still lower. At least the majority of the population thinks that the economic and criminal situation in the country has become worse, as well unemployment. At the same time, people don’t see an alternative. That’s why the turnout was so low. I think the main result of the elections is that the National Movement showed a rather good result: in the country they gained 22%, while in separate cities – from 25% to 30%. It means the UNM confirmed its status as the main opposition force. Ahead of the elections, Prime Minister Garibashvili stated that the party is not supported by anyone, their rating is 5% at best. Now the government cannot use such rhetoric.

Georgy Nodia says that the 23% the National Movement got in the elections is an achievement, considering Georgian political traditions: “Usually former ruling parties disappear. Moreover, the UNM is permanently threatened and suppressed, its members are arrested, interrogated, beaten, and so on. So, I think the result is successful.” Vakhtang Maisaya says: “I think the National Movement is almost failing. They used their administrative resources in city halls and local administrations. They have their own electorate which is quite stable – 15-16% of the population. The rest they got through using administrative resources. But I don’t think that they will get high results in the parliamentary elections. Moreover, we have a third centrist force – Nino Burdzhanadze.”

Nodia predicts that after the elections the political situation in Georgia won’t change. Maisaya thinks that “it depends on many factors. In September we will see a reshuffle in governmental structures and in the coalition. Probably some members of the coalition will choose an independent path, for example, Irakly Alasania’s party. In September the situation will be clear.”