What is the danger of European association?

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Last Friday in Brussels three former Soviet republics – Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine – signed association agreements with the EU. While the positions of Tbilisi and Chisinau are obvious on the matter, many people in Ukraine had doubts about such “a window to Europe.” It led to the Euromaidan and well-known events. Now Kiev is in a hurry. The leader of the parliamentary faction Batkivschina in the Verkhovna Rada, Sergei Sobolev, thinks that ratification of the economic part of the agreement, which was signed in Brussels and requires deep economic integration of Ukraine and the EU and establishing of a free trade zone, should be considered by the parliament this week.

According to Alexander Gusev, of the Center for Strategic Development of the CIS at the Europe Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the signing of the association agreement with the EU by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia creates certain difficulties for Russia both in the political and economic spheres: “Actually, from strategic partners those countries are turning into a component of a political and economic game. The thing is that now we will have to negotiate not with Kiev, Kishinev or Tbilisi but with Brussels when this agreement is signed.”

The expert is sure that granting free access for European products to the Ukrainian market will create big difficulties for Russia. “We know that "grey" exports will go to Russia. We need to protect ourselves. There is a free trade zone of the CIS, and Ukraine signed and ratified this agreement in 2012. According to this agreement, we have no fees on almost all the products. In this respect Ukraine will lose a lot. Trade turnover with Russia was 17 billion dollars last year, and the introduction of the 10% fees will mean that Ukraine will lose 1.7 billion. The overall losses of Ukraine from signing the free trade agreement with the EU will be 35 billion,” Gusev says.

He doubts that Ukraine had economic reasons for signing the association agreement with the EU: “And this will happen in a difficult economic situation in Ukraine when one can barely speak of an economy? What are they hoping for? For loans from the IMF? But they have to be repaid. For help from the EU? But the EU is bankrupt. There are no economic calculations. Everything is subordinated to politics. Politics and not economics is behind it.”

Vladimir Olenchenko, a member of the European Research Centre of the International Relations Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, shares Gusev’s view. “The European Union is not a club of philanthropists or idealists. The EU is a well-structured body aimed at improving the living conditions of the European states. Of course this body is not united, there are many different factions, different opinions. There are two lobbying groups in the EU, one is North-Atlantic and the other one is pro-European. The North-Atlantic lobby is represented by the current leadership of the European Commission, including President Barroso and the foreign policy chief. The pro-European lobby is represented by France and Germany. At the moment the struggle within the body is very tough. The North-Atlantic lobby, represented by the UK, is struggling against the pro-European lobby.”

The expert is sure that there should be no illusions about the changes which are happening within the EU: “Soon the European Parliament is going to hold a session. The parliament is now dominated by eurosceptics. The European Commission's term ends on November 1. A new president is going to be elected. Of course, the new leadership will face a number of challenges, no matter what their aims in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are. I looked through Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk's recent reports. They are very naive. He says that Russia should not be afraid of European products, should not be afraid of Europe. These are slogans good for demonstrations and not for statesmen.” Vladimir Olenchenko refers to  the EU budget, the current budget for 2014-2020: “It does not include possible financial aide to Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova.”