Tbilisi fears losing Russian market again

Victoria Panfilova, observer of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

The next round of Russian-Georgian talks on trade affairs is taking place in Prague. Unlike previous rounds, they will last for several days. The main detail of the talks is that they are the first since Georgia signed the association agreement with the EU, which opens up opportunities for free trade with Europe. Only after exchange of information and views on the issue by expert groups will talks take place between the deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, Grigory Karasin, and the special envoy of the Georgian Premier for relations with Russia, Zurab Abashidze.

Tbilisi hopes that the signed agreement with the EU won’t influence trade relations with Moscow. Russia, which had rejected the embargo launched in 2006, became the main importer of Georgian goods – agricultural products and wine. Georgian winemaking felt a release when it gained access to the Russian market again – from January to April of 2014 more than 13 million wine bottles were exported to Russia; in general 70% of Georgian winemaking export went to Russia.

Of course Georgia doesn’t want to lose this. It fears not only Moscow’s reaction to the signed agreement with the EU, but also that new rules and regulations of trade begin their operation on September 1st on the territory of the Eurasian Economic Union. According to the Minister of Economy, Georgy Kvirikashvili, a group of experienced experts was sent to Prague to present their views on the upcoming changes. The main goal of Tbilisi is to maintain the current level of trade, according to Kvirikashvili.

“I think it meets Russia’s interests as well, and we hope that we will fulfil the goal,” Kvirikashvili said. According to him, Moscow shouldn’t perceive the association agreement with the EU negatively, as it doesn’t contain any threats, has an exclusively economic character, and is not directed against a third party. “Russian partners will see this when they read the agreement – we won’t make a secret of it,” Kvirikashvili said.

Ashot Mancuryan, an expert on the CIS countries who lives in Berlin, thinks that the signed association agreement won’t influence economic relations with Russia. “Tbilisi has already paid a high price for its pro-Western choice. The agreement brings nothing special. It opens access to the European market, but a country must fulfil more than 20 requirements and a lot of arrangements to bring its products close to EU standards and norms,” Manucharyan told Vestnik Kavkaza.

According to him, it should be realized why Russia reacts sharply to the integration processes of its neighbors with the West. “They won’t become full members of the EU. But joining NATO is quite possible after signing the association agreement with Europe, even though some political circles state that NATO and the EU should be divided,” Manucharyan says. According to the expert, Georgia has no chances of joining NATO, as it has unsettled territorial conflicts. Angela Merkel recently reconfirmed this. “So Moscow will treat calmly the consequences of the signed association agreement between Georgia and the EU. It means not only a free trade regime, but also ambiguous migration processes, which can be dangerous for Georgia, as a country with a difficult demographic situation,” Manucharyan thinks.