Europe will not be blind follower of U.S.

The world economy will face a catastrophic scenario should the West pass the harshest possible sanctions against Russia. Oil prices will rocket to over $200 per barrel, gas prices in Europe will grow, industrial countries will lose 2.4-3.5% of their GDP, an analytical article of Oxford Economics published by RBC says. Oxford Economics predicts that there will be no ban on trade with Russia, although exports of energy resources from Russia will drop because Ukraine will stop their transit. In this case, Russia’s GDP will drop by 2% in 2014, the reduction of foreign capital will be a blow to the banks, Russian consumers and business will suffer from growing interest rates, the ruble will lose value and inflation will increase.

Dmitry Danilov, the director of the European Security Center of the RAS Institute of Europe, supposes that the process of implementing sanctions was dragged out: “Real national interests, real European interests, real lobbies and anti-lobbies, pro-sanction, anti-sanction, are forming, making implementation of new sanctions harder and harder.

But if America goes any further, it will mean that the package of sanctions will affect third parties, Europeans in this case, because sanctions will affect those who carry out operations with agents included in the American package. In other words, Europeans will suffer even if they do not impose sanctions.”

Danilov considers the imposed sanctions very serious because they hit the strategic interests of Russia, Europe, the U.S., long-term business interests, force reorientation, provoke long-term tendencies. The expert speculates that “sanctions will be imposed if Russia suddenly makes a mistake somewhere. If real proof that Russia was in any way responsible for the Boeing 777 crash or that there were missile complexes or something else moving along the border appears, political Europe would be put in a stalemate where moving back would be impossible.”

According to Danilov, “Europe, following the U.S., convinced the public that Russia was helping the south-east of Ukraine, that Russia was directly involved and had great influence. That is why Russia is in quite a grave situation. If we somehow show our direct involvement, sanctions will be passed with all the consequences. The “Russia is guilty of everything” axiom is enough for the America, and everyone will happily follow the path, but Europe does not fully believe in it. The first wave of Trans-Atlantic unity has already subsided in Europe, and political realism is coming. Impartial groups of interests, impartial groups of understanding are forming. In this situation, Europe will probably be unprepared to follow America blindly.

Dmitry Danilov: “The wave of Trans-Atlantic unity has subsided”The world economy will face a catastrophic scenario should the West pass the harshest possible sanctions against Russia. Oil prices will rocket to over $200 per barrel, gas prices in Europe will grow, industrial countries will lose 2.4-3.5% of their GDP, an analytical article of Oxford Economics published by RBC says. Oxford Economics predicts that there will be no ban on trade with Russia, although exports of energy resources from Russia will drop because Ukraine will stop their transit. In this case, Russia’s GDP will drop by 2% in 2014, the reduction of foreign capital will be a blow to the banks, Russian consumers and business will suffer from growing interest rates, the ruble will lose value and inflation will increase.Dmitry Danilov, the director of the European Security Center of the RAS Institute of Europe, supposes that the process of implementing sanctions was dragged out: “Real national interests, real European interests, real lobbies and anti-lobbies, pro-sanction, anti-sanction, are forming, making implementation of new sanctions harder and harder.But if America goes any further, it will mean that the package of sanctions will affect third parties, Europeans in this case, because sanctions will affect those who carry out operations with agents included in the American package. In other words, Europeans will suffer even if they do not impose sanctions.”Danilov considers the imposed sanctions very serious because they hit the strategic interests of Russia, Europe, the U.S., long-term business interests, force reorientation, provoke long-term tendencies. The expert speculates that “sanctions will be imposed if Russia suddenly makes a mistake somewhere. If real proof that Russia was in any way responsible for the Boeing 777 crash or that there were missile complexes or something else moving along the border appears, political Europe would be put in a stalemate where moving back would be impossible.”According to Danilov, “Europe, following the U.S., convinced the public that Russia was helping the south-east of Ukraine, that Russia was directly involved and had great influence. That is why Russia is in quite a grave situation. If we somehow show our direct involvement, sanctions will be passed with all the consequences. The “Russia is guilty of everything” axiom is enough for the America, and everyone will happily follow the path, but Europe does not fully believe in it. The first wave of Trans-Atlantic unity has already subsided in Europe, and political realism is coming. Impartial groups of interests, impartial groups of understanding are forming. In this situation, Europe will probably be unprepared to follow America blindly