Trans-Caspian Pipeline needs consensus

By Sergey Mikheyev, deputy head of the Editorial Council of Vestnik Kavkaza, the director general of the Institute for Caspian Cooperation

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said today that there were attempts by foreign countries to influence the decisions of Caspian states. He urged the Caspian countries to decide together on what conditions and in what order to build Trans-Caspian pipelines to maintain ecological security.

Naturally, the ecological standards of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline are important for Russia. Moscow is not very interested in building a corridor for shipment of hydrocarbons from Central Asia to the West, it would bring large geopolitical players with their vague dimensions to the region. Most projects concerning the Southern Corridor realized by the West in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have a veiled political nature, rather than economic. Because there is no vital economic need to get oil and gas from the West this way. It is all covered by economic rationality, but the final strategic goal is most likely political.

The West has several goals in lobbying the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, they are indiscreet or hidden. The pipeline is lobbied for by European states and Americans. The pipeline generally fits into the concept of the Southern Energy Corridor that the Americans have been promoting for very many years.

The point of the concept is very simple: to redirect petroleum streams from Central Asia through the South Caucasus to Europe, bypassing Russia. It should weaken connections between Central Asia and Russia, weaken the influence of China in the region and reorient local ruling regimes towards cooperation with the West.

In this case, Europe will be supplied with oil and gas from a non-Russian source, on the one hand. On the other, Russia will be distanced from former post-Soviet regions, while local political regimes will be moved closer.

This is the visible goal of the project. But there is also an invisible goal: involvement of the countries in closer cooperation with the West will gradually create conditions for a switch of political regimes in all the countries.

Because all the countries in the Trans-Caucasus and Central Asia are potential candidates for a switch of political regimes to more loyal ones, especially loyal to the Americans. They are simply manipulating the Europeans in order to supply the EU with alternative fuel sources.

Economic goals lie on the surface; the political, and maybe later military-political, goals are deep. Remember how the Americans offered to create a military group in Azerbaijan to protect factories that had not been built.

If the West strengthens its positions in the region, it will get an opportunity to put press on Russia, China, Iran and so on. Technically, realizing it is not that hard. Money can probably be found for that. Russia and Iran speak against such a policy. Kazakhstan stays neutral. Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan approve. Although Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have many unsettled issues.

It is also unclear how the project will be financed. The financial and the technical sides are insurmountable. But, in terms of the political aspect, problems may arise. Worsening relations with Iran and Russia simultaneously is a serious risk. A solution is only in the search for a five-sided compromise. An option beneficial to all five countries of the region should be found.

A solution can only be found in searches for a five-sided compromiseBy Sergey Mikheyev, deputy head of the Editorial Council of Vestnik Kavkaza, the director general of the Institute for Caspian CooperationRussian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said today that there were attempts by foreign countries to influence the decisions of Caspian states. He urged the Caspian countries to decide together on what conditions and in what order to build Trans-Caspian pipelines to maintain ecological security.Naturally, the ecological standards of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline are important for Russia. Moscow is not very interested in building a corridor for shipment of hydrocarbons from Central Asia to the West, it would bring large geopolitical players with their vague dimensions to the region. Most projects concerning the Southern Corridor realized by the West in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have a veiled political nature, rather than economic. Because there is no vital economic need to get oil and gas from the West this way. It is all covered by economic rationality, but the final strategic goal is most likely political.The West has several goals in lobbying the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, they are indiscreet or hidden. The pipeline is lobbied for by European states and Americans. The pipeline generally fits into the concept of the Southern Energy Corridor that the Americans have been promoting for very many years.The point of the concept is very simple: to redirect petroleum streams from Central Asia through the South Caucasus to Europe, bypassing Russia. It should weaken connections between Central Asia and Russia, weaken the influence of China in the region and reorient local ruling regimes towards cooperation with the West.In this case, Europe will be supplied with oil and gas from a non-Russian source, on the one hand. On the other, Russia will be distanced from former post-Soviet regions, while local political regimes will be moved closer.This is the visible goal of the project. But there is also an invisible goal: involvement of the countries in closer cooperation with the West will gradually create conditions for a switch of political regimes in all the countries.Because all the countries in the Trans-Caucasus and Central Asia are potential candidates for a switch of political regimes to more loyal ones, especially loyal to the Americans. They are simply manipulating the Europeans in order to supply the EU with alternative fuel sources.Economic goals lie on the surface; the political, and maybe later military-political, goals are deep. Remember how the Americans offered to create a military group in Azerbaijan to protect factories that had not been built.If the West strengthens its positions in the region, it will get an opportunity to put press on Russia, China, Iran and so on. Technically, realizing it is not that hard. Money can probably be found for that. Russia and Iran speak against such a policy. Kazakhstan stays neutral. Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan approve. Although Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have many unsettled issues.It is also unclear how the project will be financed. The financial and the technical sides are insurmountable. But, in terms of the political aspect, problems may arise. Worsening relations with Iran and Russia simultaneously is a serious risk. A solution is only in the search for a five-sided compromise. An option beneficial to all five countries of the region should be fo