“The seven districts need to be liberated first”

By Vestnik KavkazaIlham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan agreed to continue peaceful dialogue to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The agreement was reached at the Paris meeting organized by Francois Hollande. After bilateral talks of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders with the French president, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group had a meeting with the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Andrzej Kasprzyk, then a closed-door meeting.Professor Alla Yazkova, the head of the Mediterranean and Black Sea Center of the RAS Institute of Europe, the head of the Council of Mediterranean and Black Sea Research, commented on the results of the talks in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza.“The Nagorno-Karabakh settlement is a complicated problem associated with a whole set of foreign factors, notably powerful international factors. The sides have absolutely different positions. In Paris, they agreed that there would be no attempts to solve the problem by force. This is important because the problem reached quite harsh declarations that could provoke a solution by force; in particular, Baku said that Armenians were living on Azerbaijani lands, while Yerevan said that Karabakh was primordially an Armenian territory,” says Yazkova.In her words, the territory was populated by Armenians and Azerbaijanis, it is so interlaced that solving the problem is very complicated.Yazkova feels suspicious that a new generation with a view on the Karabakh problem formed by mass media and school education has grown in the last 20 years. The expert considers it hard to find common grounds even at a public level, all such attempts have failed.She noted: “The South Caucasus is a very complicated territory in general, there are basic routes for delivery of energy resources to Europe. Armenia is isolated. It cannot export its products through Georgia (but after Georgia signed the EU Association Agreement the situation became intricate, customs duties were raised) or through Iran. But Tehran will never support the positions of Armenia at the expense of Azerbaijan, because 2/3 of ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Iran.”Yazkova pointed out that 2015 will coincide with the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide. Azerbaijan, according to her, will certainly try to prevent Armenia from strengthening its positions in the world. The Armenian diaspora, including communities in Russia and the U.S., may complicate the situation further, the analyst proposes.The decision of the sides to solve the problem peacefully is the most real result, the expert says. According to Yazkova, a dialogue on liberation of the Azerbaijani districts occupied by Armenia, the so-called “safety belt”, is the most important development: “There are seven districts. Azerbaijan agreed on different variants at different stages, including [a variant] to not liberate all districts at a time, just five of the districts. But today, that is where the danger comes from, there is exchange of gunfire, there are victims. The districts are becoming the stumbling block to security in the region.”Alla Yazkova on Paris agreements of Aliyev and Sargsyan

 

 

Alla Yazkova on Paris agreements of Aliyev and Sargsyan

By Vestnik Kavkaza
Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan agreed to continue peaceful dialogue to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The agreement was reached at the Paris meeting organized by Francois Hollande. After bilateral talks of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders with the French president, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group had a meeting with the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Andrzej Kasprzyk, then a closed-door meeting.
Professor Alla Yazkova, the head of the Mediterranean and Black Sea Center of the RAS Institute of Europe, the head of the Council of Mediterranean and Black Sea Research, commented on the results of the talks in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza.
“The Nagorno-Karabakh settlement is a complicated problem associated with a whole set of foreign factors, notably powerful international factors. The sides have absolutely different positions. In Paris, they agreed that there would be no attempts to solve the problem by force. This is important because the problem reached quite harsh declarations that could provoke a solution by force; in particular, Baku said that Armenians were living on Azerbaijani lands, while Yerevan said that Karabakh was primordially an Armenian territory,” says Yazkova.
In her words, the territory was populated by Armenians and Azerbaijanis, it is so interlaced that solving the problem is very complicated.
Yazkova feels suspicious that a new generation with a view on the Karabakh problem formed by mass media and school education has grown in the last 20 years. The expert considers it hard to find common grounds even at a public level, all such attempts have failed.
She noted: “The South Caucasus is a very complicated territory in general, there are basic routes for delivery of energy resources to Europe. Armenia is isolated. It cannot export its products through Georgia (but after Georgia signed the EU Association Agreement the situation became intricate, customs duties were raised) or through Iran. But Tehran will never support the positions of Armenia at the expense of Azerbaijan, because 2/3 of ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Iran.”
Yazkova pointed out that 2015 will coincide with the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide. Azerbaijan, according to her, will certainly try to prevent Armenia from strengthening its positions in the world. The Armenian diaspora, including communities in Russia and the U.S., may complicate the situation further, the analyst proposes.
The decision of the sides to solve the problem peacefully is the most real result, the expert says. According to Yazkova, a dialogue on liberation of the Azerbaijani districts occupied by Armenia, the so-called “safety belt”, is the most important development: “There are seven districts. Azerbaijan agreed on different variants at different stages, including [a variant] to not liberate all districts at a time, just five of the districts. But today, that is where the danger comes from, there is exchange of gunfire, there are victims. The districts are becoming the stumbling block to security in the region.”