Armenia: the trio establishes offices of the all-national movement

By Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Two mass meetings on 10th and 24th of October and the decision of the three leading opposition parties on holding rallies in Liberty Square of Yerevan every Friday, made the political forces and society expect greater activation of the protest movement. However, there is a pause in the actions of the opposition, and this pause gave the authorities, the media controlled by them and some experts rise to draw conclusions about the uncertainty of the opposition (the "Prosperous Armenia" Party (PAP), "Armenian National Congress' (ANC) and "Heritage"), its unwillingness to make any real steps and the lack of necessary resources for the change of state power. In some media appeared a belief that the opposition should prove its sincerity by depositing deputy seats of its members.

Hovhannes Mandakuni, the observer of "1in.am" believes this "commercial break" occurred because those three leading opposition parties (opposition trio) do not have any tactical and strategic far-reaching agreements.

"I do not see any preconditions for holding early elections. Yes, the opposition is discussing the matter, but it’s a tradition we have here - to talk about early elections. The opposition trio has no resources for enforcement authorities for the early elections," - said the director of the institute "Caucasus" Alexander Iskandaryan.

"Motives of the demands of changing the government are social, not political. And it is a fact that the social situation in Armenia is unsatisfactory for at least 20 years now" - says the Minister-Chief of the Government of Armenia David Harutyunyan.

Nowadays, some experts and politicians are discussing the question of a possible split within the opposition trio on geopolitical grounds, referring to the multi-vectorness of belonging to this formation forces. In particular, they are referring to the fact that the PAP and the ANC are supporting Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union, and the "Heritage" party stands for Armenia's European integration.

According to Armen Badalyan, the expert on the political and electoral technologies, the opposition trio de facto is the unit which, unlike the existing de jure unit, assumes no recorded liabilities and certain limits in many issues, including the issue of geopolitical orientation: "At long last let’s not forget that the opposition is not one party, but there different ones and they do have distinctions in interests and approaches. If there would bу a moment when all three of them will say the same thing, when there’d be no differences in their opinions, we may assume that the opposition trio has ceased to exist, and became a political corpse "- says the analyst.

As for the trio itself, which seemed to be still and remain in stagnation, by the assurance of some of its representatives, at the moment, its most urgent task is to build a national movement headquarters across the country. Recall that during his speech at the rally program of October the 24th PAP leader Gagik Tsarukyan pointed the need of elimination of the country's current political monopoly, as well as a majoritarian system of the parliamentary elections. PAP leader noted that Armenia now is in need of power of a new quality and fundamental changes. According to Gagik Tsarukyan, if the demands of the people about the resignation will be ignored by the authorities, the people will pressure and oblige the government to hold early elections. 

The activity of opposition has transformed from a public format into a hidden form, which suggests the beginning of a new, perhaps more tangible, step in the political struggle. According to the expert Vakhtang Margaryan, this created an exclusive situation where statements really do become actions.

The opposition essentially offers two options for the authorities power shift: incremental option and “package” option. The first option is to conduct amendments to the Electoral Code as soon as possible, aimed at the elimination of the majoritarian system, as well as the holding of early presidential and parliamentary elections. Second option may be to hold early presidential elections. In both cases, the most important task of the opposition trio is to change the political situation in the country avoiding upheavals.