Armenian government is deadlocked

Susanna Petrosyan, especially for "Vestnik Kavkaza”

In recent days interesting events have taken the place in relations between the Armenian government and the opposition. On November 10, President Serzh Sargsyan suddenly suggested that the Government once again return to the 12 requirements presented by the opposition in the summer. He proposed to the opposition a step by step form of discussion, which involves the preparation of a small "road map" alternately for all items.

A week later, Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan expressed willingness to discuss with the opposition its demands for amendments to the financial and economic and social policies. In case of failure to implement the requirements by September 30, the opposition has promised to begin large-scale protests. From the end of September the parliamentary opposition "troika" represented by the "Prosperous Armenia" Party (PAP), "The Armenian National Congress'' (ANC) and "Heritage" began to hold meetings in all the main cities of the country.

The protests and especially the two rallies in Yerevan (10 and 24 October), that were organized by the “troika”, supported by the majority of the population, have had a sobering impact on the regime. The leading power pyramid decided to use a conciliatory tone unusual for them to prevent the wave of rallies and the further unwinding of the unfavorable situation for themselves.

But the opposition rejected the proposal of the authorities to start a dialogue. According to the vice-chairman of the ANC, the head of the parliamentary faction of the same name, Levon Zurabyan, the topic of the 12 claims has closed. The "troika" sees no point in negotiating with the authorities. The invitation to the opposition for dialogue is an attempt to involve the opposition in long, fruitless discussions and simulations, and also win time and break the pressure of the movement. With political will, the authorities can meet these requirements without discussing them with the "troika". The opposition will continue to move on the planned route, the main purpose of which is to change the government and to hold early presidential and parliamentary elections.”With its intransigence and tough rhetoric against the opposition, the authorities have driven themselves into a dead end. In recent years, the parliamentary majority has torn up every initiative of the opposition, whether it was the convening of an extraordinary session, or a proposal for amendments to any law. Immediately after the presentation of the 12 claims by the opposition, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) accused its political opponents of making an effort to score political dividends. According to the head of the Government Staff, Davit Harutyunyan, none of the items will be accepted, because the government has its own working agenda.

"The political minority does not make decisions in any country of the world. If you want to present your 12 points - win the election!" the Vice Speaker of Parliament, Edward Sharmazanov, advised the opposition just a few months ago.

In short, the authorities on the one hand showed their inherent rigidity and intolerance of their political opponents; on the other hand, seeing the strength of mass protest, they realized the danger to themselves and tried to slow it down with a proposal to hold a dialogue with the opposition. But these steps were too late. After all, the authorities not only ignored the opposition and its demands, but also the fact that the driving force behind the protests was the great social discontent resulting from the extremely unpopular economic policies of government.

These events point to the virtual absence of any chance for the authorities  to negotiate with the opposition on a number of critical issues - the moment was lost. Today the expansion of the protest movement trend is noticed. The representatives of the "troika" are busy forming headquarters of the movement in the regions and mobilizing people. On December 10, a regular meeting on Freedom Square in Yerevan has been scheduled, and in addition, in the near future the political council of the national movement  will be formed, that will include representatives of regional organizations, the center of cooperation with youth organizations.