Azerbaijani president’s interview with Russia-24 TV
Read on the website Vestnik KavkazaAzerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was interviewed by Russia-24 TV on Friday. The president gave answers to questions concerning Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation, the economy of Azerbaijan, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, multiculturalism and the first European Games to be hosted by Baku in 2015.
- Mr. President, good day and thank you for receiving us on Azerbaijani land again.
- Good day, welcome.
- Mr. President, today many partnership relations are being tested for their durability. Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation is developing dynamically, intensively, this year has been overendowed, in terms of visits, bilateral contacts. What is your assessment of the political dialogue between Russia and Azerbaijan at the current historical moment?
- We have a constant political dialogue. As you have noticed, relations are developing very dynamically, involving all sectors, and there are no unsettled issues or problems between us. The only thing we talk about and discuss when we meet with counterparts is how to boost the cooperation potential. Azerbaijan and Russia today are two friendly neighbouring states actively developing and ready for any challenges in the world.
- In what sectors can you see opportunities for cooperation?
- We have traditional sectors of cooperation. There is certainly the energy sector, the oil and gas sector. Cooperation here has a good history and good potential. This year, we reached agreements in the oil and gas sector that will further determine more dynamic development of relations in the sector. There is also good potential and experience of cooperation in the sector of electricity, in transportation. We, Russia and Azerbaijan, want the North-South corridor to operate more actively, and we are creating the necessary infrastructure. This includes maritime ports, reconstruction of the railways and roads. The same applies to the Russian side. There is certainly good potential for cooperation in distribution of Azerbaijani agricultural products on Russian markets. We are increasing the export potential, generally, it was a strategic line of our government, but considering the current situation and demands for our products on the Russian market, we have been deliberately boosting the goods that Russian consumers need. There are good prospects in the tourism sector, we see a rise in the number of tourists from Russia visiting Azerbaijan in the summer and winter. The conditions here are good, the distance is not that big, there is no lingual barrier. And the sectors of culture and education, of course. These are the basis, I think, for our cooperation. Notable Russian collectives perform in Baku almost every week.
- But most importantly, there is no lingual barrier, and this is to a great extent an achievement of the efforts and the policy Azerbaijan implements deliberately and consistently for the Russian language.
- The Russian community in Azerbaijan is the largest in the South Caucasus, it consists of over 120,000 people, and they are worthy representiVestnik of Azerbaijan in the world arena, they take part in various international events, they make a great contribution to the development of our country. They are dignified citizens of our country, patriots of Azerbaijan, simultaneously people tied to their language, to their culture, traditions. And the traditions of multiculturalism, which is a relatively new word in our vocabulary, they have always been in Azerbaijan throughout the ages, they were just called differently. We respect the Russian language in Azerbaijan the way we did in previous times. We have over 300 schools teaching in the Russian language, some of them are Russian-speaking only. All state higher education centers have a section to study in the Russian language, a branch of the MSU was formed, it has already seen graduates, the Slavic University, where teachers are being trained in the Russian language too. So it is an inseverable part of our existence, and I think that this positive experience can be useful for countries choosing a language as a target for attacks.
- History itself dictates Baku to remain a tolerant city, an international city. It was the most international city of the Soviet Union. Tell me, is it hard to remain such a city today in the modern world and remain such a country, when the leading European politicians admit the failure of multiculturalism? For example, do you feel pressure from within, from the outside?
- No, I do not feel it. There is no pressure from within, because the public fully shares the approaches of the government on the issue. There are no controversies. Generally, the state policy sticks with public sentiment, just like public opinion. It may help the state implement the policy. We see the benefits of such a condition of the society, because it has not always been that way. The first years of independence, when the country was ruled by the so-called People’s Front, it was a completely different situation, national intolerance was basically turned into state policy then. And the negative attitude and attempts to push out the foreign population – it all went by in our eyes. They were years of national infamy for our country, for our people. The Azerbaijani people showed wisdom and tolerated the authorities for little over a year, then they were thrown out to the dump of history.
- Does the vaccine still work?
- Yes-yes, it is because the society rejected the approaches. Very big mistakes were made in the national policy sector, if not crimes, just as in all other sectors. So the society quickly cleared itself of the alien taint and returned to its origins, because it is a normal state of development of our society today. So, there are no prerequisites for revision of the policy within. Concerning developments beyond our borders, there are certainly concerns, because we do not live on an island, we are not isolated, and whether you want it or not, the processes in the region have a certain influence. But then again, we have high conscience of the public and effective state policy and an exemplary demonstration of the advantage of such an attitude and the condition of society, this is the main driving force.
- Let’s talk about the economy of Azerbaijan, because the world economy has a significant impact on the condition of the society of any country. The GDP of Azerbaijan shows a 3% increase this year. What forecasts do you make for next year? And what do you think would determine economic growth in the near future?
- Yes, this year, as you have noted, 3% growth is expected, but whenever we calculate the GDP, we pay most attention to the non-petroleum sector. The situation there is better. We expect a growth of 6-7% there this year, it was 10% last year. Next year, we expect the non-petroleum sector to grow by 6-10%. It is a result of the diversification policy and our big investments and efforts to diversify the Azerbaijani economy in previous years. The oil sector makes about 45% of the GDP today, less than half. So, we will certainly strengthen the tendencies next year. The fall in world oil prices will certainly have a negative impact on our plans. But we have different scenarios prepared, and the economy will develop steadily even at an oil price of $60.
- What was projected in the budget?
- 90 was projected in the budget. 100 the previous year.
- Those are optimistic figures…
- Yes, but when we projected 90 and adopted the budget, the price was 90. It is falling so suddenly. Of course, these factors will have certain impact. But that is not the most important thing, because the only negative I see is that what we planned to do in a year will be done in two years. We will just cut budget expenses in non-priority sectors, infrastructure projects. It is good that we mostly realized the projects in previous years. Serious measures for stimulation of business, beneficial crediting, granting of subsidies for farmers were taken for development of the economy, even before the situation developed this year. Our farmers are free from all taxes except the land tax, and the government is actively subsidizing development of production in villages. The sector of innovative and communication technologies is steadily growing in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is a country with a space industry. The first satellite has already been launched, another one will soon be launched. In other words, the sector is actively developing. Agriculture. Big hopes for tourism. Many modern hotels are being built all over the country, we see a rise of tourists preferring Baku as a place for vacation.
- Do you plan to continue the policy of diversifying the economy? If so, what is the ideal percentage in the GDP structure for oil income, resource income?
- Ideally, we will certainly try to make oil income form a third of our GDP. Then we will consider our diversification policy a success. We are on the path towards that, because we started the programs when the oil factor was about 80% of the GDP, it is 45% now. In other words, there is a tendency of reduction. We need to consider that we expect a great rise in production of gas and its realization, so the oil GDP will be “resting” too, it will grow, and the non-petroleum should…
- It will simply be oil and gas.
- Exactly.
- Nonetheless, dependence on foreign conjuncture will rise too.
- Certainly.
- You say that the Azerbaijani economy will be steadily developing at $60 per barrel of oil, but how realistic do you analysts consider such a forecast? And what forecasts for oil prices do they generally make?
- It is hard to expect more detailed analyses from our analysts than world analysts, because they're probably oriented towards the common world trend. Here, we see, as it is called, total chaos. No one can make a clear prediction — and there are probably objective reasons – of what will happen. No one has explained why it happened so far…
- So, I wanted to ask you, what theory you prefer. There are some conspiracy theories, and more impartial, more realistic…
- I would integrate all the theories a little in my analysis.
- In a moment of some crisis events in the economy, a dilemma often occurs: to give money for development or to be frugal, to save, to create the so-called stabilization funds? What path have you chosen?
- We chose both paths. In the years of active reforms, our currency reserves were growing from year to year, our investments were growing too. Last year, $28 billion were invested in the economy of Azerbaijan. For a country with a population of about 10 million, the sum is impressive. 70% of it was national investments. State infrastructure investments certainly dominate in the structure of national investments, private investments too. So, we are trying to increase our currency reserves from year to year, and they increase from year to year. At the same time, we spend as much as we need to form a diversified economy. Without normal conditions of life in the regions, it is hard to do that. In the early years of independence, many citizens of Azerbaijan left to find a job, in Russia too, mostly in Russia. The process has almost stopped or slowed down. But another process started, people moved from the regions to Baku. And so our minimum goals were issues associated with regional development, to have good local hospitals, good schools, water supplies, electricity, gas supplies and labour conditions.
- Speaking of foreign investments, what markets are the most promising for investments, the safety and development of state funds?
- We started diversification of our investments a few years ago. There were several reasons for that. Firstly, we could not overheat the economy in the country. Moreover, naturally, we wanted to diversify our investment portfolio, because we had started investing. We took the geography very wide: it is Asia, Europe, Russia.
- I was hoping to hear that.
- Yes-yes. And the region. So, we invest in shares, in real estate, in the banking sector, in industry. Concerning Russia, we invested in the banking sector, purchased VTB shares, real estate and industry. So the Russian market is very promising for us, and we continue actively investing in the Russian market, regardless of situations, regardless of the so-called sanctions. Because, first of all, it is all temporary; secondly, we need to work so that our relations would become stronger. Investments are not just diversification of funds, it is also a demonstration of relations on the cooperation level. Not a single country would invest in a place with no stability and no good relations. So Russia is a friend for us, a partner, and investments in Russia will continue. We would certainly like to see investments from Russia in Azerbaijan.
- Nonetheless, you have mentioned several times that one of the main problems and most sensitive topics for Azerbaijan is the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Do you think you have recently progressed towards a resolution of the problem?
- Unfortunately, we cannot speak about success in the negotiating process, the reason is quite simple and banal. We are getting a feeling, and it has become quite firm in society, that Armenia does not want peace, does not want to settle the issue, it wants to keep everything as it is, keep the status quo. Although the presidents of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair states – Russia, U.S. and France – have said many times that the status quo is unacceptable, it should be changed. Changing the status quo means de-occupation of Azerbaijani territories, which is the main condition for a settlement of the conflict. The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict differs from all other conflicts in the post-Soviet space in the resolutions of the UN Security Council passed on it. It is not one, there are four [resolutions] that demand, as it is written there, the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied territories. They have not been complied with for over 20 years and, unfortunately, there is no mechanism for their realization, because Armenia simply ignores [the resolutions]. The resolution should be the basis of the settlement of the conflict, because there can be nothing else. I must say, this year differs from previous ones by the intensive character of the negotiating process, and not only by that. By the active involvement of the leaders of the co-chair states of the OSCE Minsk Group, something that has never happened before. In August, President Putin had a meeting with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Sochi. Secretary of State Kerry had a similar meeting with the U.S. in September. French President Hollande invited the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia to Paris in late October, and we had bilateral and trilateral discussions. And one of them, besides settlement of the conflict and the negotiating process, concerned strengthening of trust, to diminish incidents on the contact line, so that the sides would trust each other more. Both sides – Armenian and Azerbaijani – hailed the meeting in Paris and talked about it in public commentaries. But after just two weeks, Armenia started the so-called military drills on the occupied part of our territory. The drills were not held in Armenia, not even in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, but on the territory of the Agdam District of Azerbaijan, right along the contact line. According to their information, 47,000 soldiers and thousands of vehicles were taking part there. We wonder what was the need to make such provocations right after the positive meeting in Paris?
- What is your general opinion about the efficiency of international institutions in settling modern conflicts?
- I do not have a very optimistic outlook on that, and I think that I am not the only one with such an approach. What is happening in the world demonstrates that international institutions are not doing well with their obligations and maybe not living up to the hopes put upon them. It concerns our case when the OSCE has sort of been a mediator for over 20 years. It concerns issues in the competence of the UN. So, in principle, world institutions are deforming in the world, which is a very alarming tendency, dangerous. I think that leading countries of the world should not only say clear words in statements but also show respect for the decisions made. Or if no decisions are made, then the actions made, we have seen it many times in the modern world just recently. So the breach in the existing mechanism of international cooperation will bring total chaos. I think that responsibility lies in the hands of leading countries of the world in this historical period of time. They should not violate international law first of all. They need to support international law, the world order formed after WWII.
- This year, we have seen the appearance of some sort of a formation calling itself ISIS on the world map. The radical Islamic group conquers new territory and threatens its neighbours. It is happening not far from Azerbaijan, I must say. What do you think about this aggressive and quite decisive phenomenon?
- First of all, in order to give make a proper assessment of a situation, we need a clear understanding of how the so-called structure appeared, where it came from. It did not drop from some other planet. It is a result of what has been happening in the Middle East for at least 10 years. It is the fruit of the policy implemented in the Middle East, and a result of the policy. It proves again that support of radical fanatic groups needs great caution and providence. Terrorists cannot be distinguished as good or bad: where a good terrorist fights against your enemy and the bad one is the one who fights against you. This is the main topic that needs a solution, I think. And as long as the leading countries of the world remain without a solution, as long as there is no common understanding of the fight against radicalism and terrorism, such situations will happen all the time.
- Finally, I propose discussion about something that can unite nations – sport. Russia hosted the Winter Olympics this year. Azerbaijan will host the European Games in 2015. Are you preparing for a holiday?
- First of all, I would like to use the opportunity to congratulate Russians on successfully hosting the Olympics in Sochi. I was at the opening of the Olympic Games. It was a beautiful, splendid spectacle demonstrating the power of Russia, and modernity, and development. It was very great, and we were very happy for the success of Russia, the victories of the Russians, which were very symbolic, so I congratulate them twice. We are also preparing for the European Games. They will be hosted for the first time. We are very happy that the European Olympic Committee entrusted the right to Azerbaijan. European Games have never been held, and the way we hold them will determine their future, whether the Games will have a future (I am certain they will) and at what level they will be held. In other words, we will set standards for the Games to a certain extent. From the very start, as soon as the decision to hold the Games in Baku was made, we decided to host them at the top level, at the level of Summer Olympic Games. The Games will be quite extensive. We expect over 6,000 athletes competing in 20 types of sports. Our biggest problem is that there is very little time for preparations, only 2.5 years. But we have not been wasting time. So, we are actively preparing, new sports facilities are being built, certainly a new transportation infrastructure, the city lives in hopes for the Games. I think that the decision to hold the European Games in a Muslim state is a very wise decision. It is a wise decision in terms of what we have been talking about, multiculturalism and mutual insight of civilizations and cultures. And in 2017 Baku will host the Islamic Solidarity Games. In other words, in two years Azerbaijan will receive Europe, the Islamic world, then there is Formula-1 in between, which was, by the way, successfully held in Sochi, which I congratulate you on. So the new city for the Formula is Sochi, Baku after Sochi, just as in the Olympic Games. So, I would like to use the opportunity and invite Russians to visit Baku more often. Not just for the European Games, for the Games too, and be part of our holiday.