Egyptian Spring ends in late autumn

Oleg Kusov exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

At the very end of autumn, experts stated that they discerned a turn in the "Arab Spring". The former president of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, was exonerated at the second legal trial. After the sentence in the first trial – life imprisonment – the Egyptian authorities didn’t hide their dissatisfaction, considering it to be too soft.

The sentence was passed in June 2012. Mubarak was accused of the deaths of 750 people during protests in Cairo in early 2011 and corruption. Lawyers appealed against the verdict in the court of cassation. The main charge was connected with the deaths of protesters. On November 29th judges dismissed the charges against the former Egyptian leader and seven other officers of the security service. The corruption case was reconsidered as well. Mubarak was accused of embezzling budget resources (about 125 million Egyptian pounds) and gas exports to Israel for low prices. However, the charge of constructing villas in Sharm el-Sheikh remained. So the 86-year old former president should spend three years in prison, i.e. in hospital, as he is unable to move on his own.

Supporters of Mubarak are enthusiastic about the absolutory sentence; however, many people are dissatisfied with it. On Saturday, opponents of the verdict gathered on Tahrir Square. There were clashes. The General Prosecution Service of Egypt decided to appeal against the verdict to the former president of the country. But most experts think that the former leader won’t have any serious troubles. His opponents – the Muslim Brotherhood – lost power last summer. They declared Mubarak to be a symbol of dictatorship in early 2001. When the “revolutionaries” overthrew the “dictator,” they brought to power the chairman of the Party of Freedom and Justice, Mohamed Morsi. He was a political antagonist of Mubarak. The overthrown “dictator” studied in the Soviet Union, while his Islamist opponent studied in the USA. The united candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood stayed in power for a year only. In the first half of 2013 he was accused of usurping power and rebuilding a dictatorship. On July 3rd 2013, the Defense Minister of Egypt el-Sisi declared that Mohamed Morsi had been overthrown and the Constitution was no longer in force. The military took power; the Muslim Brotherhood was banned. El-Sisi won the presidential elections this year (almost 93% of voters voted for him).

One year and four months later Mubarak was exonerated. El-Sisi is described as a supporter of Mubarak. After the absolutory sentence the President stated that the country should look to the future, and there is no way back, trying to end discussions on Mubarak’s fate.

The 30 years of Mubarak’s regime and one year of Morsi’s regime in Egypt are self-explanatory. The Egyptians didn’t understand their new authorities who came to power on the wave of this color revolution, even though at first they hoped for a better life after it. After the overthrow of Mubarak, the deputy State Secretary of the USA James Steinberg said: “We will support principles, processes, and institutes, rather than personalities. We hope that the Egyptians are able to establish a system of electing new leaders and reforming legislation, establishing institutes, and respect for women's and religious minorities’ rights.”

Some Egyptian politicians responded to Steinberg that democracy couldn’t be bought in a supermarket. It should be a result of a certain route of social development of the nation, establishment of political institutes, and independent media. Imposing a Western scheme on Middle Eastern societies can lead to destruction of the life foundations, according to analysts. Each country has its own evolutionary path, while revolutionary disturbances can lead to a loss of the path, chaos and destruction, as in Iraq. If Washington’s main goal is to “implement democracy” in the Middle Eastern countries, why doesn’t it start with its friends – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait? Is it afraid of destabilization? It seems financial interests are more important for Washington than spreading democracy.

Experts say that today Washington has another concern in the Arab world. It is the growing influence of such political leaders as Mubarak, Gaddafi, Hussein and Assad. Eliminating strong leaders is thought to be a key to the weakness and dissolution of these countries, according to Western strategists. At the same time, the role of America's partners in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait could grow in the region, while other countries are unnecessary to Washington. Moreover, the USA is sure other countries shouldn’t be strong and independent. The Americans cannot do anything with China, but they attempt to prevent the growth of the political and economic importance of Russia and Azerbaijan.

Adjar Kurtov, the editor-in-chief of Problems of National Strategy, thinks that Mubarak, Sadat, Assad and Hussein were initially oriented toward Moscow. The USA didn’t like the situation and they eliminated these attitudes (except for Syria).

The Egyptian society turned out to be conflicted due to the Arab Spring. The character of future processes is unclear. Experts say that the main thing is that American policy has failed again in the region. Many politicians believe that Egypt is the key country in the Arab world, while processes in the country could influence the situation in other states of the region. And Washington counted on this, supporting the revolution in Egypt in 2011. The rehabilitation of the overthrown president is a serious sign that forced democratic changes by America don’t survive in the Arab world.

The Muslim Brotherhood has huge experience of illegally fighting “false authorities.” It was founded in the 1920s in Egypt for the Islamization of society and the establishment of an Islamic state. The organization united the principles of Sufi institutions, a political party, and military groups. Its members were distinguished in many notorious and bloody stories. There are radical forces in the organization, which participated in the murder of President Sadat in September 1981. During the Afghan war of 1979-1989, emissaries of the organization recruited militants and trained terrorists from religious extremists in special camps. In the post-Soviet period, members of the organization supported radicals in Chechnya and Dagestan, participated in military activities against Russian soldiers. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, in the USA, the Brotherhood was accused of supporting terrorists. However, Wikileaks later reported that the Muslim Brotherhood promised Washington it would participate actively in the destruction of al-Qaeda in exchange for joint control of the Middle East. Cooperation between the USA, the Brotherhood and al-Qaeda confirms the cynicism of American policy in the Middle East.