Azerbaijan stays treading middle line

By Kommersant

 

One of the few influential countries distancing itself from tensions between Russia and the West is Azerbaijan. Gennady Sysoyev, a correspondent of Ъ, is on a visit to Baku to see how Azerbaijan manages to keep the position.

Azerbaijan calls its foreign policy balanced. “It has no anti-alignment, it has no big brother in Washington, Moscow or Ankara,” Fuad Akhundov, deputy head of a sector at the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration, told Ъ.

Azerbaijan voted for the UN resolution against the annexation of Crimea by Russia, forced Russia to give up the Qabala Radar and promotes oil and gas projects. Azerbaijan does not recognize Kosovo, scrapped the Nabucco project endorsed by the West, it distanced itself from the EU Eastern Partnership project Moscow considers anti-Russian. Azerbaijan is reluctant to sign the EU Association Agreement, switch to NATO standards. It buys weapons worth hundreds of millions of dollars in Russia.

“There is no partner more comfortable for Moscow than Azerbaijan. We are offered to consider joining the EaEU or even the CSTO. What for? To keep up with Armenia that illegally occupied Nagorno-Karabakh? We can have better relations with Russia even without the structures,” said Fuad Akhundov. Political analyst Mubariz Ahmedoglu clarifies: “Azerbaijan does not build its policy according to the principle: some percentage for Russia, some for the West. We have withstood pressure from Russia and Iran, we have managed to convince them that we have a pro-Azerbaijani policy, not pro-American and not pro-Turkish.”

Baku believes that Moscow has been showing understanding. “1.5 or 2 years ago, Moscow decided that the position of Baku suited it, they understood that turning Azerbaijan towards Russia even more would not work,” says politologist Rasim Agayev, pointing out the Karabakh problem as the main reason for such an approach. “Moscow cannot make the step Baku expects: force Yerevan to return Karabakh. And it creates the environment for a maneuver for Azerbaijan,” explains the interviewee.

The threat of Islamic State may stimulate cooperation between Baku and Moscow. Islamic radicals are a threat to the Caucasus, and it is bad for both our countries,” says Mubariz Ahmedoglu. In his words, Azerbaijan and Russia exchange information about it.

Fuad Akhundov characterizes the relations of Azerbaijan and Washington as tense. “The U.S. cannot really give us anything. Moreover, it is trying to cause trouble for us, working on consolidation of our opposition. This irritates Baku, where the Americans were reminded about the outcomes of such a policy in the Middle East. The U.S. criticized the presidential elections of autumn 2013, where Ilham Aliyev won a decisive victory, gaining about 85% of the votes and becoming the president for the third time. In response, the head of his administration Ramiz Mekhtiyev accused Washington of attempting to teach other countries how to hold elections and encouraging them to make falsifications. Proving his words, the Americans advised Baku to give an opposition candidate 25% of the votes, to make the evaluation of the State Department balanced, assures Mahmout Musabayev, a lawmaker who is not part of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party.

“Concerning Turkey, Azerbaijan does not consider it a big brother either. When Ankara decided to open the border to Armenia, Baku spoke out against it, so it has not happened,” continues Mahmout Musabayev. Another confirmation of Azerbaijan’s balanced policy is the gas agreements with Ankara. Ilham Aliyev was striving to sell Azerbaijani gas to Europe instead of Turkey for two years, though Ankara still got things its own way.

Some experts opine that the current cooling of relations between Baku and the West means a turn of Azerbaijan towards Russia. Many politologists, on the other hand, consider such a conclusion to be hasty. First of all, Ilham Aliyev has not personally stung the West, the criticism comes from high-ranking officials. Secondly, Baku does not need to give up on the policy that allows it to cooperate with everyone without hassle with anyone. The temporary drift from one side of the world tensions to another is nothing but a signal to one of the sides for a favour in return.

Almost all the interlocutors of Ъ agree that the financial independence of Baku stimulates a balanced policy. The Oil Fund holds about $37 billion, the Central Bank $15 billion. It is like a safety bag. “Azerbaijan is capable of paying the governmental and private debt now, it would still have over $30 billion left,” says Mir Jamal Pashayev, the director of Pasha Holding (one of the country’s largest companies), “Even with the current serious fall in oil prices, we can maintain our projects for several years.” This means that there will be no changes in the policy of Baku.

How Baku manages to stay away from tensions between Russia and the WestBy KommersantOne of the few influential countries distancing itself from tensions between Russia and the West is Azerbaijan. Gennady Sysoyev, a correspondent of Ъ, is on a visit to Baku to see how Azerbaijan manages to keep the position.Azerbaijan calls its foreign policy balanced. “It has no anti-alignment, it has no big brother in Washington, Moscow or Ankara,” Fuad Akhundov, deputy head of a sector at the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration, told Ъ.Azerbaijan voted for the UN resolution against the annexation of Crimea by Russia, forced Russia to give up the Qabala Radar and promotes oil and gas projects. Azerbaijan does not recognize Kosovo, scrapped the Nabucco project endorsed by the West, it distanced itself from the EU Eastern Partnership project Moscow considers anti-Russian. Azerbaijan is reluctant to sign the EU Association Agreement, switch to NATO standards. It buys weapons worth hundreds of millions of dollars in Russia.“There is no partner more comfortable for Moscow than Azerbaijan. We are offered to consider joining the EaEU or even the CSTO. What for? To keep up with Armenia that illegally occupied Nagorno-Karabakh? We can have better relations with Russia even without the structures,” said Fuad Akhundov. Political analyst Mubariz Ahmedoglu clarifies: “Azerbaijan does not build its policy according to the principle: some percentage for Russia, some for the West. We have withstood pressure from Russia and Iran, we have managed to convince them that we have a pro-Azerbaijani policy, not pro-American and not pro-Turkish.”Baku believes that Moscow has been showing understanding. “1.5 or 2 years ago, Moscow decided that the position of Baku suited it, they understood that turning Azerbaijan towards Russia even more would not work,” says politologist Rasim Agayev, pointing out the Karabakh problem as the main reason for such an approach. “Moscow cannot make the step Baku expects: force Yerevan to return Karabakh. And it creates the environment for a maneuver for Azerbaijan,” explains the interviewee.The threat of Islamic State may stimulate cooperation between Baku and Moscow. Islamic radicals are a threat to the Caucasus, and it is bad for both our countries,” says Mubariz Ahmedoglu. In his words, Azerbaijan and Russia exchange information about it.Fuad Akhundov characterizes the relations of Azerbaijan and Washington as tense. “The U.S. cannot really give us anything. Moreover, it is trying to cause trouble for us, working on consolidation of our opposition. This irritates Baku, where the Americans were reminded about the outcomes of such a policy in the Middle East. The U.S. criticized the presidential elections of autumn 2013, where Ilham Aliyev won a decisive victory, gaining about 85% of the votes and becoming the president for the third time. In response, the head of his administration Ramiz Mekhtiyev accused Washington of attempting to teach other countries how to hold elections and encouraging them to make falsifications. Proving his words, the Americans advised Baku to give an opposition candidate 25% of the votes, to make the evaluation of the State Department balanced, assures Mahmout Musabayev, a lawmaker who is not part of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party.“Concerning Turkey, Azerbaijan does not consider it a big brother either. When Ankara decided to open the border to Armenia, Baku spoke out against it, so it has not happened,” continues Mahmout Musabayev. Another confirmation of Azerbaijan’s balanced policy is the gas agreements with Ankara. Ilham Aliyev was striving to sell Azerbaijani gas to Europe instead of Turkey for two years, though Ankara still got things its own way.Some experts opine that the current cooling of relations between Baku and the West means a turn of Azerbaijan towards Russia. Many politologists, on the other hand, consider such a conclusion to be hasty. First of all, Ilham Aliyev has not personally stung the West, the criticism comes from high-ranking officials. Secondly, Baku does not need to give up on the policy that allows it to cooperate with everyone without hassle with anyone. The temporary drift from one side of the world tensions to another is nothing but a signal to one of the sides for a favour in return.Almost all the interlocutors of Ъ agree that the financial independence of Baku stimulates a balanced policy. The Oil Fund holds about $37 billion, the Central Bank $15 billion. It is like a safety bag. “Azerbaijan is capable of paying the governmental and private debt now, it would still have over $30 billion left,” says Mir Jamal Pashayev, the director of Pasha Holding (one of the country’s largest companies), “Even with the current serious fall in oil prices, we can maintain our projects for several years.” This means that there will be no changes in the policy of B